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Steady-state Dirichlet approximation of the Wright-Fisher model using the prelimit generator comparison approach of Stein’s method

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 May 2025

Anton Braverman*
Affiliation:
Northwestern University
Han L. Gan*
Affiliation:
University of Waikato
*
*Postal address: Kellogg School of Management, 2211 Campus Drive, Evanston, IL 60208, USA. Email: anton.braverman@kellogg.northwestern.edu
**Postal address: Department of Mathematics, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand. Email: han.gan@waikato.ac.nz
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Abstract

The Wright–Fisher model, originating in Wright (1931) is one of the canonical probabilistic models used in mathematical population genetics to study how genetic type frequencies evolve in time. In this paper we bound the rate of convergence of the stationary distribution for a finite population Wright–Fisher Markov chain with parent-independent mutation to the Dirichlet distribution. Our result improves the rate of convergence established in Gan et al. (2017) from $\mathrm{O}(1/\sqrt{N})$ to $\mathrm{O}(1/N)$. The results are derived using Stein’s method, in particular, the prelimit generator comparison method.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
Figure 0

Figure 1. An illustration of our coupling at times $t = 0,1,2$ with population size $N = 6$ and $K= 5$ types. Each gene type is colour and number coded; e.g. type 1 is green, type 5 is red, etc. An ‘M’ next to a row represents a mutation, while arrows represent parental relationships; e.g. rows two and three (from the bottom) in the middle plot are children of the first row in the leftmost plot, while row six of the middle plot mutated. Coupling occurs at time $t = 2$ since rows two and three in the middle plot have no children.

Figure 1

Figure 2. An illustration of our second-order difference coupling at times $t = 0,1,2$ with population size $N = 6$ and $K= 5$ types.