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First things first: What is a base rate?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Clark McCauley
Clark McCauley
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Bryn Mawr College, Bryn Mawr, PA 19010. cmccaule@cc.brynmawr.edu
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Abstract

The fallacy beneath the base rate fallacy is that we know what a base rate is. We talk as if base rates and individuating information were two different kinds of information. From a Bayesian perspective, however, the only difference between base rate and individuating information is – which comes first.

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Open Peer Commentary
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 33 - 34
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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