Policy significance statement
The research gives an overview of the development and application of Anticipatory Governance in Migration in North Macedonia. The Migration Policy Resolution and Action Plan 2021–2025 stated that new and innovative approaches, such as extensive data collection and Foresight should be used in policy development. The Anticipatory Governance Model was designed, and Foresight capacities were developed. The capacity development informed the model and the conceptualizing for the model influenced the capacity building, thus affecting a long-term concept for policymaking in migration. The exploration of the local context, coupled with reviewing best international practices, as well as working with the Intergovernmental body, are positive examples. The lack of finances and commitment for the continuation of the process on the governmental level is a lesson learned for future planning.
1. Introduction
Migration governance plays a pivotal role in shaping national policies, impacting social cohesion, economic development, and human rights. As migration trends evolve, governments must adapt to these changes to address challenges and harness opportunities. North Macedonia, with support from the UN (Berten, J., & Kranke, M., Reference Berten and Kranke2022), embarked on developing an anticipatory migration policymaking that aligns with its multi-year migration resolution and action plan. This research aims to explore the evolution, challenges, and opportunities of anticipatory migration policymaking in North Macedonia, challenged by transferring complex theoretical constructs into actionable, context-specific insights to be operationally feasible within government systems. Thus, the institutionalization of anticipatory governance in North Macedonia serves as a case study for how knowledge transfer can occur through iterative processes involving capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and methodological adaptation.
The research examines the institutionalization of anticipatory governance in North Macedonia’s migration policy through capacity-building activities, stakeholder engagement, and the integration of foresight methods. It evaluates the alignment of these efforts with the Migration Policy Resolution 2021–2025 and its accompanying Action Plan. Additionally, the study analyses the local context, stakeholder perspectives, and international best practices that have informed the anticipatory governance model. It identifies key challenges and opportunities, such as sustainability, capacitation, and stakeholder collaboration, and provides recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of this approach.
By addressing these objectives, this paper aims to contribute to the discourse on migration governance, foresight methodologies, and data-driven anticipatory policy development in North Macedonia. Furthermore, it seeks to inform policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders about the potential of proactive governance to navigate migration dynamics in an increasingly complex world.
2. Background
Migration patterns are continuously influenced by geopolitical shifts, economic transformations, and climate change (Huckstep S and Clemens M, Reference Huckstep and Clemens2023). North Macedonia’s strategic location in the Balkan Peninsula makes it a transit country for large migration flows while grappling with significant emigration and population decline. For example, during the 2015 Mediterranean Crisis, over 800,000 individuals crossed North Macedonia’s borders as part of mixed migration movements. Even after this crisis subsided, the country remained a key transit point, with 27,391 arrivals recorded in 2022 alone, as reported in the EU Commission’s 2023 report (European Commission, 2023). And, according to the US State Department’s 2022 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for North Macedonia, some migrants have been returned to neighboring countries outside of formal procedures, raising concerns about compliance with international legal standards (US Department of State, 2022).
The 2021 census revealed a 10% population decline, with the total population dropping to 1.8 million from 2.02 million in 2002 (North Macedonia Census, 2021). This demographic shift underscores pressing challenges, including labor force shortages, aging populations, and reduced consumer demand. These trends affect societal structures such as healthcare, education, and pension systems, requiring proactive measures to ensure their sustainability (OECD, 2023). Furthermore, according to the 2021 Migration Index, published by the Government of North Macedonia and supported by IOM, North Macedonia is characterized by an aging demographic with a median age of 39.9 years. The country experiences significant emigration, primarily to EU countries, while immigration remains limited. Remittances play a crucial role in the economy, contributing 3.4% to the GDP, amidst a high unemployment rate, especially among the youth. Challenges such as brain drain and the need for better integration policies for immigrants persist.
North Macedonia is committed to both the Global Compact for Migration (GCM) and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). The GCM, adopted in 2018, has since seen the country actively participate in various reviews and forums to assess its implementation. In 2019, North Macedonia made its first pledges under the Global Refugee Forum, aiming to enhance refugee management and support best practices in this area.
North Macedonia’s pursuit of European Union membership has prompted alignment with EU migration standards, including Integrated Border Management strategies and policies aimed at discouraging irregular migration. Starting in April 2023, FRONTEX assists North Macedonia in its efforts to manage migratory flows and tackle cross-border crime.
With these challenges and opportunities in mind, North Macedonia adopted the Migration Policy Resolution 2021–2025, a strategic document drafted by an intergovernmental body. This resolution identifies key migration challenges and outlines measures to address them, such as enhancing demographic sustainability, labor market integration, social cohesion, and regional coordination. The accompanying action plan emphasizes innovative approaches, including the use of foresight methodologies and extensive data collection, to anticipate and manage migration trends effectively.
By adopting anticipatory governance, North Macedonia seeks to move beyond reactive approaches to migration management (Sahin-Mencutek, Z et al, Reference Sahin-Mencutek, Barthoma and Gökalp-Aras2022). This proactive stance enables the country to minimize risks and seize opportunities, fostering a resilient society built on inclusive policies that prioritize human rights, economic opportunities, and social cohesion (United Nation, 2017).
3. Anticipatory migration policymaking in North Macedonia
Anticipatory governance has already been used in integrating foresight and policy in migration management, such as the European Commission’s Knowledge Centre for Foresight, which provides insights and resources on various topics, including migration governance. It emphasizes the importance of anticipatory governance, which involves preparing for future challenges (Bracken P and Guston DH, Reference Bracken and Guston2013) through early warning systems, data analysis, and proactive policymaking (OECD, 2021). This approach helps policymakers address complex issues (Fuerth LS, Reference Fuerth2009) such as geopolitical shifts, economic disparities, climate change, and technological advancements, ensuring better preparedness and response to migration-related challenges. Furthermore, EU implemented the European Agenda on Migration, which incorporated scenario planning and foresight methodologies to better anticipate and respond to future migration trends and challenges (OECD, 2020), and IOM published the Strategic Framework study Eastern Route Migration Scenarios For 2030: The future demand for return and reintegration assistance across the Central and Western Mediterranean routes and the Eastern migratory route in Africa (International Organization for Migration, 2023). Therefore, anticipatory governance involves integrating foresight methods into policymaking to proactively address future challenges and opportunities.
North Macedonia has taken steps to institutionalize this approach, particularly in migration governance, through a combination of strategic planning, capacity building, and stakeholder collaboration. The institutionalization process followed six crucial phases: Assessment of current needs and capacities; Global benchmarking for insights; Capacity-building; Foresight analysis informing decision-making; Creation of an Anticipatory Migration Policy model; and Integration into governance frameworks. These phases ensure a strategic pathway towards addressing migration challenges effectively.
A significant aspect of this approach is the focus on data-driven policymaking. By leveraging advanced data collection and analysis techniques, North Macedonia aims to predict migration trends and develop informed policies (Maffei, S., Leoni, F., & Villari, B., Reference Maffei, Leoni and Villari2020). The institutionalization of anticipatory governance has also emphasized the need for collaboration among government agencies, civil society, and international organizations, ensuring a holistic approach to migration management.
Despite these advancements, challenges remain. Limited financial and human resources, varying institutional capacities, and the need for greater government ownership have hindered the full realization of anticipatory governance. Addressing these challenges is crucial for sustaining and scaling this innovative approach.
4. North Macedonia Migration Policy Resolution and Action Plan 2021–2025
The Migration Policy Resolution of the Republic of North Macedonia for 2021–2025 is a strategic framework designed by an intergovernmental body to address both current and future migration challenges. This initiative builds on earlier efforts, starting in 2008 with the first intergovernmental coordination body responsible for drafting the Migration Policy Resolution for 2009–2014, which focused on external migration management. For the 2015–2020 resolution, a new body was formed under the Prime Minister’s Office, involving representatives from 12 ministries and four international organizations. While this body achieved progress, surveys highlighted the need for clearer role definitions and more preparation time. In March 2021, a new intergovernmental coordination body was established to draft the 2021–2025 resolution. This body also provides guidance to ministries and updates the national Migration Profile annually.
The 2021–2025 Migration Policy Resolution establishes a comprehensive framework to address migration challenges and leverage opportunities to support national development. It focuses on five strategic areas:
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1. Strengthening Institutions: Enhancing the capacity and coordination of the interministerial body to effectively develop and implement migration policies.
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2. Data-Driven Decisions: Improving the collection and analysis of reliable migration data, including from the 2021 Census, to inform effective policymaking.
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3. Managing Legal Migration: Developing strategies to reduce permanent emigration, particularly of skilled individuals, encouraging the return of Macedonian citizens abroad, addressing labor market gaps with foreign workers, and improving policies for residence, readmission, visas, and social inclusion of foreigners.
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4. Controlling Mixed Migration: Strengthening national capacities to manage mixed migration flows efficiently, ensuring timely responses and maintaining border security.
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5. Building International Partnerships: Promoting collaboration with global partners to exchange knowledge, share best practices, and address migration challenges collectively. (North Macedonia Migration Policy Resolution and Action Plan (2021–2025).
The accompanying Action Plan includes measures and activities aligned with these strategic areas. For example, under the goal of improving migration data management, the following initiatives are planned:
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• Improving interoperability and connectivity between administrative data systems.
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• Using innovative data collection methods, such as big data.
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• Strengthening technical and analytical capacities for collecting and comparing migration data.
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• Applying predictive methods and trends, such as foresight, to assess long-term migration trends.
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• Aligning migration data systems with EU standards.
The Resolution on Migration Policy of the Republic of North Macedonia 2021–2025 supports the Anticipatory Governance approach by providing a comprehensive framework to address migration challenges and leverage opportunities for national development. The resolution anticipates future migration trends, improving data collection and analysis, and strengthening institutional capacities. It sets clear strategic goals, such as enhancing migration management, promoting social cohesion, and fostering international cooperation. Collaboration among government agencies, civil society, and international partners is a central feature, supported by mechanisms for ongoing monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment to ensure flexibility and effectiveness (United Nations, 2017). It represents a shift toward forward-looking, proactive governance in migration policy (Ramos, Reference Ramos2014). Furthermore, prominently featured in the Action Plan of the Migration Policy of the Republic of North Macedonia for 2021–2025 is the point on using innovative methods, such as Foresight, to enhance migration policymaking and governance.
5. Application of the Anticipatory Governance and Policymaking in North Macedonia
The application of Anticipatory Governance and Policymaking in North Macedonia suggests a more proactive, collaborative, and experimental approach necessary to augment societal adaptability, foster resilience, and drive transformation. It uses foresight knowledge to inform critical governmental functions, including strategic planning, finance, policymaking, and services (Demos Helsinki, Reference Demos2023). The proposition further integrates diverse foresight activities and knowledge into the migration policy cycle as an experimental measure. This innovative approach aims to enhance the effectiveness and adaptability of migration policies in response to evolving societal and migratory dynamics.
International organizations have been instrumental in supporting North Macedonia’s transition toward anticipatory migration governance, particularly as the country aligns its policies with EU integration goals. UNHCR has facilitated policy alignment with international protection standards, ensuring a rights-based approach to refugee integration. IOM has strengthened data management and scenario-based forecasting, equipping institutions with predictive tools, while UNFPA has provided insights into demographic shifts and labour migration trends. As North Macedonia aspires to develop forward-looking policies, institutionalizing foresight-driven governance is essential for enhancing policy adaptability and long-term sustainability.
The private sector, particularly in construction, IT, and agriculture, recognizes migration as a strategic solution to labour shortages, with some businesses already initiating skills-matching programs despite existing regulatory barriers. Civil society organizations acknowledge the country’s progress in anticipatory governance but emphasize the need for inclusive policymaking that balances efficiency with migrant protections. A stakeholder noted that “As North Macedonia moves toward EU accession, embedding foresight in migration policy is no longer optional—it is necessary for effective governance.”
5.1. Drafting of the Anticipatory Migration Governance Model for North Macedonia related to the Migration Policy Resolution
Grounded in recommendations outlined in the Resolution on Migration Policy 2021–2025 and its Action Plan, the drafting of the Anticipatory Migration Governance Model was a pivotal step. This phase involved extensive consultations, interviews, and comprehensive desk research to understand the existing landscape of migration policies in North Macedonia. Previous studies, such as the Assessment of the collection and exchange mechanisms of migration data in North Macedonia, provided valuable insights into the shifting migratory trends and challenges (European Commission, 2018). Through collaborative efforts, a team of experts formulated a preliminary version of the Anticipatory Migration Governance Model tailored to North Macedonia’s unique context. The findings underscored the necessity for new capacities and mechanisms to enable long-term policy formulation and agile planning in response to migration dynamics. Key challenges identified included the need for a greater collective understanding of the migration policy process, enhanced capacity-building efforts focused on data analysis, and increased integration of local stakeholders in policymaking.
5.2. Exploring the local context
Understanding the intricacies of migration policies and stakeholders’ perspectives is essential for informed decision-making (Ramos et al., Reference Ramos, Mansfield and Priday2012). This phase involved a series of interviews with representatives from the government, international organizations, NGOs, and civil society to gather insights into current challenges and future-oriented policymaking. The primary objectives were to assess stakeholders’ support for anticipatory policymaking and identify key priorities and responsibilities in migration governance. Through structured discussions, stakeholders shared their experiences and perspectives on successful and unsuccessful policy implementations, as well as potential challenges in adopting a new migration policy. The findings from these interviews provided a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted dynamics surrounding migration policies in North Macedonia, laying the groundwork for strategic considerations and policy development.
5.3. Exploring international good practices
Drawing insights from international good practices and case studies was instrumental in refining the Anticipatory Migration Governance Model. By exploring practices from countries such as Serbia, Estonia, Australia, Finland, Iceland, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom, North Macedonia gained valuable insights into innovative approaches to migration governance. The virtual Global Roadshow facilitated learning and exchange with practitioners worldwide, offering a platform to share experiences and discuss anticipatory practices in migration governance. Through keynote speeches, country case presentations, and interactive sessions, participants explored diverse perspectives and strategies for addressing migration challenges. The main findings and lessons from the event were incorporated into the benchmark study on anticipatory migration governance, enriching North Macedonia’s understanding of global trends and best practices. For this, the OECD’s previous regional project was consulted. OECD worked closely on a visioning and constraints analysis that has generated the following strategic priorities for North Macedonia, which include: enhancing the quality of life for all citizens; strengthening education and skills, with a focus on digitalization; striving for a prominent position in international value chains; fostering capable local governments and efficient service delivery; cultivating a more sustainable revenue base and fostering a willingness to contribute; optimizing the energy mix for a healthier environment; and fostering an appreciation for diversity.
5.4. Capacity development
Building anticipatory thinking among stakeholders involved in migration management was critical for effective policy implementation (Klein and Snowden, Reference Klein and Snowden2011). This phase encompassed comprehensive capacity-building initiatives, including online masterclasses, an advanced certificate program, and a training of trainers session. The first Masterclass focused on futures thinking in policymaking, broadening participants’ conceptualizations of foresight methodologies and their application in migration governance (Minkkinen M, Reference Minkkinen2009). Subsequently, the second Masterclass delved into the nexus of foresight and policymaking within the context of migration, featuring scenario-building exercises to explore alternative futures. The Advanced Certificate in Anticipatory Migration Policy program aimed to deepen participants’ understanding of anticipatory skills and their application in contemporary migration management. Through practical exercises and workshops, participants developed proficiency in applying anticipatory thinking to their work. The Training of Trainers session aimed to enhance participants’ ability to facilitate foresight practices in North Macedonia, fostering sustained change in migration management through local capacity building. Finally, the workshop dedicated to anticipatory experimentation aimed to introduce the concept of experimentative institutionalization and initiate the ideation process for mini-pilots. Through learning the foresight techniques, including STEEPLE analysis, 2x2 matrices, and scenario planning, within the training sessions, the participants became instrumental in gathering valuable inputs for the modeling. These foresight methodologies provided a structured framework for participants to contribute insights, identify emerging trends, and assess potential future scenarios. The diverse perspectives and data generated during these sessions served as a rich resource for exploring and refining the Anticipatory Governance model; thus, a seamless integration of participant insights and analytical foresight occurred. This synergistic approach facilitated a coherent and interconnected development process.
5.4.1. Development of the Anticipatory Governance model applied to migration for North Macedonia
Building on the insights gathered from the previous phases, the Anticipatory Governance Model for migration in North Macedonia was refined and developed. Grounded in the policy cycle (Risteska, Reference Risteska2017) and the concept of anticipatory governance, the model aims to shift from reactive to proactive policymaking (Cairney, Reference Cairney2014). It involves different foresight activities and knowledge to inform strategic planning and decision-making processes and differs from traditional ways of governing migration that have been reactive and siloed (IOM). The model emphasized the importance of collaboration, experimentation, and continuous learning in shaping migration policies. From a policy development perspective, transformation orientation aligns with strategic foresight and scenario planning, which facilitate discussions around potential future developments and help policymakers prepare for various alternative futures (OECD, 2020). By integrating foresight methodologies and fostering stakeholder engagement, North Macedonia aimed to build a more agile, transparent, and efficient system for addressing migration challenges effectively.
The approach to implementing anticipatory migration governance in North Macedonia underscores the significance of coalitions and piloting principles. The establishment of coalitions is pivotal, involving the formation of partnerships and collaborations among diverse stakeholders, including government agencies, civil society organizations, and the private sector. These coalitions play a crucial role in promoting the creation and adoption of anticipatory knowledge and practices, contributing to more effective migration governance. Through the engagement of all relevant stakeholders, these coalitions ensure that policies and practices are customized to meet the specific needs and capacities of North Macedonia. Integrating piloting principles involves testing the tenets of anticipatory migration governance within the upcoming National Development Strategy, designed to serve as a comprehensive policy framework for all institutions.
5.4.2. Thematic clusters for organizing and implementing Anticipatory Migration Governance in North Macedonia
To organize and implement Anticipatory Migration Governance in North Macedonia, six thematic clusters were identified, each addressing specific needs and challenges within the migration governance landscape. These clusters focused on legislative transparency, governance silos, statistical systems, citizen awareness, local engagement, and regional cooperation. By addressing these thematic areas, North Macedonia aims to create a more integrated and coordinated approach to migration governance, involving all relevant stakeholders in decision-making processes.
6. Critical analysis of challenges in implementing Anticipatory Governance in migration
While direct attribution analysis to determine the impacts of specific interventions remains unfeasible, this study emphasizes the importance of evaluating processes and performance to capture the dynamics and contributions of anticipatory governance in migration policy. The implementation of anticipatory governance in migration in North Macedonia has revealed several significant challenges that must be addressed to ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of this innovative approach.
6.1. Methodology
For this research mixed-methods approach was employed, combining systematic document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and post-training surveys to examine the implementation of anticipatory governance in North Macedonia’s migration policy.
Document analysis: Twenty-one key documents were systematically analysed across multiple categories: policy documents including the Migration Policy Resolution 2021–2025 and National Development Strategy 2024–2044; legal frameworks such as the Law on Employment and Work of Foreigners (2022) and Law on International and Temporary Protection (2018); international reports from OECD, EU Commission, and IOM; evaluation reports including the EU IPA II Interim Evaluation (2023); statistical data from Census 2021 and Migration Trends Statistics (2024); and government documents from the Inter-Ministerial Body on Migration and academic sources from OECD and Demos Helsinki.
Interviews: 28 semi-structured interviews were conducted across four stakeholder categories: government officials from Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Labour, and State Statistical Office covering policy, coordination, and statistics roles; international organization staff from UNHCR, IOM, and UNDP providing programme and technical assistance perspectives; four technical experts and consultants responsible for model design and training delivery; and four civil society and academic representatives engaged in stakeholder engagement and research.
Participants were selected through purposive and snowball sampling, focusing on individuals with direct operational involvement in anticipatory governance development, policy implementation, or capacity building activities. The interview framework addressed five evaluation dimensions: relevance (alignment with institutional priorities), efficiency (resource use and coordination), effectiveness (achievement of intended outcomes), sustainability (long-term viability and ownership), and impact (broader influence on policy and cooperation).
Survey Component: Three hundred and twenty-eight participants were surveyed post-training using structured questionnaires to examine learning retention and assess confidence levels in applying foresight methods, providing quantitative data to complement qualitative insights from interviews and document analysis.
6.2. Results analysis
Lack of empirical data: The absence of quantitative data collection has hindered rigorous analysis of foresight interventions’ outcomes. Future research should prioritize systematic data gathering to substantiate claims made regarding policy effectiveness. Digital tools and platforms may be used for real-time data collection and analysis, which will also contribute to improved decision-making and responses to migration trends (Assessment of the Collection and Exchange Mechanisms of Migration Data in North Macedonia 2021).
Human rights oversights: A significant oversight has been the lack of attention to human rights issues at North Macedonia’s borders. Addressing how anticipatory governance can ensure compliance with international human rights standards is crucial for improving migration policy outcomes. Setting up an independent body to monitor migration trends, evaluate policies, align the commitments to the GCM and GCR, and provide evidence-based recommendations will help in the development of future strategies.
Stakeholder Engagement: While stakeholder involvement is emphasized, practical challenges remain in fostering genuine collaboration among diverse actors involved in migration management due to a lack of capacities and resources. North Macedonia may create a standardized framework to assess the social, economic, and environmental impacts of the migration policies, assessing the implementation. Including initiating local programs that engage communities in migration discussions, fostering understanding and support for migrant integration.
The lessons learned for the sustainability of the processes are the need for more resources, institutional capacities, and governmental ownership of the process. First, considering that the process was spearheaded by the UN, it depended on the resources provided by donors. Many institutions lacked the financial and human resources necessary to sustain innovative governance practices. The reliance on external funding and project-based interventions introduced additional vulnerabilities, raising concerns about the sustainability of governance mechanisms in the absence of continued support. Secondly, the variability in institutional capacities posed another significant challenge. Institutions exhibited disparities in their readiness to adopt anticipatory practices, primarily due to insufficient training and a lack of technical tools. Furthermore, stakeholder engagement revealed critical gaps. While capacity-building efforts were well-received, the steep learning curve associated with introducing new methodologies hindered the possibility of direct implementation. Academia was more advanced in this sense, with one university professor, who participated in the capacity-building process, later establishing a master’s course on Foresight to equip future policymakers with the tools to integrate strategic foresight into governance. Strengthening collaboration between academia and government institutions will be key to institutionalizing anticipatory governance as a standard practice in migration policy.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated these challenges by limiting in-person engagements and delaying capacity-building activities, reducing institutional commitment to the process. Thirdly, a significant lesson learned from the implementation process is the lack of robust government ownership. The anticipatory governance initiative is largely driven by external actors, with somewhat limited buy-in from state institutions. This dependence on external facilitators and international support reduced the initiative’s potential for long-term sustainability. Looking at the EU Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance, under Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom, and Security) may help the country to maintain progress. However, without a clear exit strategy or mechanisms to transfer ownership to the government, the initiative’s continuation became uncertain after external funding ceased.
7. Recommendations and translational insights
Addressing the challenges of implementing anticipatory governance in migration requires a multi-faceted approach that emphasizes sustainability, inclusivity, adaptability, and alignment with regional and international frameworks. Building on the lessons learned, actionable recommendations highlight pathways for strengthening anticipatory governance and creating a model applicable to other contexts.
Proposed model for evaluation
To address the identified gaps in empirical data collection and evaluation, this paper proposes a systematic model for assessing the impact of anticipatory governance on migration policy outcomes:
Data collection framework: Establish protocols for quantitative data gathering related to migration trends and policy impacts.
Stakeholder feedback mechanisms: Create avenues for continuous feedback from stakeholders involved in migration management.
Performance indicators: Develop specific metrics to evaluate the effectiveness of anticipatory governance interventions against established benchmarks.
Regular reporting: Implement regular reporting mechanisms that allow for timely adjustments based on evaluation findings.
By incorporating these elements into future research and practice, policymakers can ensure that anticipatory governance evolves into a more effective tool for managing migration dynamics.
Furthermore, to ensure sustainability, North Macedonia must prioritize the development of a robust strategy that integrates anticipatory governance into national policies (Tõnurist P and Hanson A, Reference Tõnurist and Hanson2020). This involves securing long-term funding mechanisms, embedding foresight methodologies into the regular workflows of governmental institutions, and fostering domestic ownership of these initiatives. Developing a dedicated framework that aligns anticipatory governance with national development goals, such as the National Development Strategy 2024–2044, will provide a stable foundation for continued progress. Migration policies should be embedded within broader national development strategies to align with the economic growth objectives. Therefore, the Migration Policy Resolution 2026–2030 represents a pivotal opportunity to institutionalize foresight approaches and ensure alignment with EU legislative standards. By addressing gaps identified in previous resolutions and incorporating lessons learned, this policy can serve as a cornerstone for long-term migration governance.
Capacity-building initiatives should expand their reach to ensure all relevant actors are equipped with the skills and tools needed for effective foresight implementation. Collaborative regional frameworks, such as those promoted through the Open Balkan Initiative, provide a regional platform for enhancing coordination on migration issues across neighboring countries. While the initiative initially focused on mobility among member states, it could evolve into a joint migration force to address broader regional challenges.
Adaptability is another critical component. Modernizing data systems and harmonizing data collection practices will enhance the evidence base for policymaking. International Organization for Migration, (2023). By investing in advanced analytics and forecasting tools, North Macedonia can anticipate future migration trends and develop proactive strategies. Additionally, incorporating human rights considerations into all stages of policymaking will align the anticipatory governance framework with international standards and promote equitable outcomes. Harmonized data practices can also strengthen regional collaboration by fostering interoperability between North Macedonia’s systems and those of neighboring countries.
North Macedonia’s experience with anticipatory governance offers valuable lessons that extend beyond its borders, making this research inherently translational. By addressing universal challenges in migration governance and demonstrating replicable solutions, the country has positioned itself as a model for proactive and inclusive policymaking. Key insights include the importance of stakeholder engagement, sustainable frameworks, and the integration of foresight methodologies into existing policy cycles.
Transferable components include robust stakeholder engagement strategies and the use of participatory approaches (Kim S and Lee J, Reference Kim and Lee2021) that incorporate diverse perspectives. Consultations with civil society, international organizations, and local communities highlight the significance of inclusivity in building comprehensive and context-sensitive migration frameworks. While the principles of anticipatory governance are broadly applicable, successful implementation requires customization to local contexts. Factors such as governance structures, political priorities, and resource availability must be considered when adapting the model. Regional collaboration can provide a platform for sharing best practices and addressing cross-border migration challenges collectively. Strengthened cooperation with other Balkan countries will enhance the resilience and adaptability of migration governance across the region.
Looking ahead, the integration of anticipatory governance into the development of the Migration Policy Resolution 2026–2030 presents a significant opportunity for North Macedonia to build on its progress. This policy should emphasize long-term sustainability, enhanced data integration, and strengthened regional collaboration. Investments in capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and advanced foresight methodologies will be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of this approach.
Capitalizing on some interest from the authorities, a dedicated Foresight Unit may be established within the framework of the National Development Strategy 2024–2044 to ensure continuity in anticipatory migration governance (Fuerth L and Faber EMH, Reference Fuerth and Faber2012). This unit would focus on long-term scenario planning, evidence-based policymaking, and cross-sectoral coordination to enhance migration management sustainability. (Hanson A, Reference Hanson2021) Embedding foresight practices into existing governance structures will ensure continuity. This includes mainstreaming anticipatory methods across different ministries and incorporating migration foresight into national economic and labor market strategies.
A comprehensive national integration strategy should complement anticipatory governance efforts by ensuring long-term support for refugees, migrants, and foreigners. Strengthening housing, employment, and education programs tailored to migrants’ needs will enhance social cohesion. Expanding language training and skills certification programs could also facilitate labor market inclusion and economic contributions from migrants.
Furthermore, adherence to international legal frameworks, including the Global Compact for Migration (GCM) and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR), is essential for ensuring that migration policies uphold human rights standards. Policies should undergo systematic evaluations to prevent rights infringements and ensure compliance with international obligations. Strengthening institutional capacities, securing long-term funding, and fostering regional cooperation will be crucial for the successful implementation of anticipatory governance in migration.
Moreover, leveraging the EU integration process can help North Macedonia access technical and financial assistance. The country’s alignment with EU standards and engaging in joint actions under the European Commission’s Pact on Migration and Asylum could provide avenues for technical expertise, such as the Joint Research Centres (JRC) offer expanded foresight capacities, a more systemic approach in the frame of cross-cutting portfolios, and support to policymakers to maximize and measure impact. As part of the 20 priorities, tackling demographic change and migration studies emphasize that foresight improves policy outcomes and enhances resilience to migration challenges. Furthermore, the JRC’s comprehensive analysis of migration drivers—encompassing demographic, economic, environmental, human development, political-institutional, security, socio-cultural, and supranational dimensions—provides a valuable framework for understanding the interconnected factors influencing migration processes. Additionally, the United Nations recognizes strategic foresight as a key component of its transformative agenda, UN 2.0. This initiative emphasizes foresight as essential for navigating uncertainty and driving innovation within the UN system. The UN’s commitment to foresight underscores its importance in shaping proactive and resilient governance structures.
8. Conclusions
The implementation of anticipatory governance in migration has highlighted both its transformative potential and the challenges that must be addressed to realize its full benefits. In North Macedonia, the initiative has underscored the importance of long-term planning, stakeholder engagement, and institutional capacity-building. While reliance on external funding and limited government capacities and ownership have constrained its sustainability, the initiative has laid a foundation for future advancements.
By aligning governance efforts with EU legislative standards and regional initiatives, North Macedonia can position itself as a leader in innovative migration policymaking. To ensure future success, anticipatory governance must be embedded within a holistic framework that integrates policy foresight with actionable strategies. The development of the Migration Policy Resolution 2026–2030 provides a critical opportunity to strengthen institutional frameworks and align national priorities with international best practices. By focusing on inclusivity, sustainability, and adaptability, North Macedonia can address existing gaps and build a more resilient governance system.
The importance of regional collaboration cannot be overstated. Initiatives like the Open Balkan offer a valuable platform for fostering cross-border cooperation on migration management. By leveraging regional partnerships, North Macedonia can enhance its capacity to address transnational challenges while sharing its experiences with anticipatory governance as a model for neighboring countries. Furthermore, collaboration with EU institutions and alignment with the European integration agenda will provide additional resources and expertise, enabling North Macedonia to scale its efforts and achieve sustainable outcomes.
Finally, anticipatory governance offers a promising pathway for managing migration dynamics in a proactive and inclusive manner. By learning from past experiences and implementing the recommended strategies, North Macedonia and other nations can harness the potential of foresight to navigate the complexities of migration in an increasingly interconnected world. Through sustained investment, regional collaboration, and a commitment to inclusivity, the anticipatory governance framework can serve as a blueprint for addressing migration challenges globally.
Data availability statement
Policy documents analyzed are publicly accessible as referenced. Interview transcripts and survey data are not available due to confidentiality restrictions. Some aggregated data are contained in internal progress reports not available for public access. Anonymized summary data may be available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request, subject to ethical approval and privacy protection protocols.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful for the administrative support provided by Demos Helsinki.
Author contribution
Conceptualization: V.A; Methodology: V.A; M.Z. Writing original draft V.A; M.Z. All authors approved the final submitted draft.
Competing interests
The authors declare none.
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