Hostname: page-component-77f85d65b8-g4pgd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-03-26T19:42:08.140Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A narrative approach to analysis of covert action

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2024

Jack Duffield Open the ORCID record for Jack Duffield [Opens in a new window]
Jack Duffield*
Affiliation:
Independent scholar, London, UK
*
Please contact the editors with any queries. Email: RISeditors@bisa.ac.uk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article argues that covert action is subordinate to security narratives, with covert action demanded by, empowered through, and used to decisively impact the narratives of security threat that concern a state’s key power-granting audiences. A narrative approach to analysing covert action is developed based on narratology and securitisation. This approach reconciles the paradoxical historical record of implausible deniability with International Relations theory, and challenges other risk-led approaches to understanding covert action. The narrative approach is supported by a class-severity model which updates existing ladder models of covert action escalation, enabling scholars to both detect occurrences of covert action and suggest attribution to an actor – a vital initial step for the study of non-Western covert action in particular. The narrative approach also enables the effectiveness of covert action to be measured in terms of its impact on security narratives, overcoming the limitations of existing approaches. The article employs these tools to analyse Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, delivering new insight and identifying areas for further study for a key non-Western user of covert action.

Video Abstract

Keywords

covert actionnarrativenarratologyRussiasecuritisation

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Review of International Studies , Volume 51 , Issue 4 , July 2025 , pp. 608 - 626
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The British International Studies Association.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

Footnotes

This article has been updated since it was originally published. A notice detailing this has been published.

References

1 Roger N. McDermott, ‘Brothers disunited: Russia’s use of military power in Ukraine’, in J. L. Black and Michael Johns (eds), The Return of the Cold War: Ukraine, the West and Russia, 1st ed., Routledge Contemporary Russia and Eastern Europe Series 68 (Abingdon: Routledge, 2016), pp. 77–107 (p. 81).

2 Rory Cormac, Calder Walton, and Damien Van Puyvelde, ‘What constitutes successful covert action? Evaluating unacknowledged interventionism in foreign affairs’, Review of International Studies, 48:1 (2022), pp. 111–28 (p. 112).

3 Alexander Lanoszka, ‘Russian hybrid warfare and extended deterrence in eastern Europe’, International Affairs, 92:1 (2016), pp. 175–95; Bettina Renz, ‘Russia and “hybrid warfare”’, Contemporary Politics, 22:3 (2016), pp. 283–300.

4 Barbara Czarniawska, ‘The uses of narratology in social and policy studies’, Critical Policy Studies, 4:1 (2010), pp. 58–76 (p. 58).

5 Riikka Kuusisto, International Relations Narratives: Plotting World Politics (London: Routledge, 2019), p. i.

6 Jack Holland and Xavier Mathieu, ‘Narratology and US foreign policy in Syria: Beyond identity binaries, toward narrative power’, International Studies Quarterly, 67:4 (2023), p. sqad078 (p. 3).

7 Katja Freistein and Frank Gadinger, ‘Performing leadership: International politics through the lens of visual narrative analysis’, Political Research Exchange, 4:1 (2022), pp. 1–20 (p. 16).

8 Annick T. R. Wibben, Feminist Security Studies: A Narrative Approach (London: Routledge, 2010), p. 43.

9 Kai Oppermann and Alexander Spencer, ‘Studying fiascos: Bringing public and foreign policy together’, Journal of European Public Policy, 23:5 (2016), pp. 643–52 (p. 645).

10 Regina Kreide and Andreas Langenohl, eds., Conceptualizing Power in Dynamics of Securitization: Beyond State and International System (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 2019), p. 7.

11 Ole Wæver, Securitization and Desecuritization. Working Papers 1993/5 (Copenhagen: Centre for Peace and Conflict Research, 1993), p. 6.

12 Martin B. Carstensen and Vivien A. Schmidt, ‘Power through, over and in ideas: Conceptualizing ideational power in discursive institutionalism’, Journal of European Public Policy, 23:3 (2016), pp. 318–37.

13 Thierry Balzacq, ‘The “essence” of securitization: Theory, ideal type, and a sociological science of security’, International Relations, 29:1 (2015), pp. 103–13 (p. 106).

14 Holland and Mathieu, ‘Narratology and US foreign policy in Syria’, p. 2.

15 Lene Hansen, Security as Practice: Discourse Analysis and the Bosnian War (London: Routledge, 2013), p. 31.

16 Ronald R. Krebs, ‘How dominant narratives rise and fall: Military conflict, politics, and the Cold War consensus’, International Organization, 69:4 (2015), pp. 809–45 (p. 839).

17 Author’s own work (forthcoming).

18 Balzacq, ‘The “essence” of securitization’, p. 106; Hansen, Security as Practice, p. 31.

19 Jennifer Saul, ‘Dogwhistles, political manipulation, and philosophy of language’, in Daniel Fogal, Daniel W. Harris, and Matt Moss (eds), New Work on Speech Acts (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018), pp. 360–83; Ole Wæver, ‘The theory act: Responsibility and exactitude as seen from securitization’, International Relations, 29:1 (2015), pp. 121–27 (p. 121).

20 Kreide and Langenohl, eds., Conceptualizing Power in Dynamics of Securitization, p. 8; Author’s own work (forthcoming).

21 Piero Gleijeses, Shattered Hope: The Guatemalan Revolution and the United States, 1944–1954 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992), pp. 256–78; Richard H. Immerman, The CIA in Guatemala: The Foreign Policy of Intervention (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1982), pp. 146–50.

22 E. James Walther, ‘Sabotage from abroad? The economic impact of U.S. interference in Chile 1970–73’, SSRN Scholarly Paper. Rochester, NY (13 May 2019), pp. 8–11.

23 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, p. 113.

24 Arthur S. Hulnick, ‘What’s wrong with the intelligence cycle’, Intelligence and National Security, 21:6 (2006), pp. 959–79 (p. 977); Michael Poznansky, ‘Stasis or decay? Reconciling covert war and the democratic peace’, International Studies Quarterly, 59:4 (2015), pp. 815–26 (p. 818).

25 Rory Cormac, How to Stage a Coup: And Ten Other Lessons from the World of Secret Statecraft (London: Atlantic Books, 2022), p. 90.

26 Author’s own work (forthcoming).

27 Rory Cormac and Richard J. Aldrich, ‘Grey is the new black: Covert action and implausible deniability’, International Affairs, 94:3 (2018), pp. 477–94 (pp. 482–3).

28 Carstensen and Schmidt, ‘Power through, over and in ideas’, p. 324.

29 Michael Poznansky, ‘Revisiting plausible deniability’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 45:4 (2022), pp. 519–22.

30 Allison Carnegie, ‘Secrecy in international relations and foreign policy’, Annual Review of Political Science, 24:1 (2021), pp. 214–20; Loch K. Johnson, The Third Option: Covert Action and American Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2022).

31 Andreas Langenohl, ‘Dynamics of power in securitization: Towards a relational understanding’, in Regina Kreide and Andreas Langenohl (eds), Conceptualizing Power in Dynamics of Securitization: Beyond State and International System (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 2019), pp. 25–67.

32 Author’s own work (forthcoming).

33 Cormac and Aldrich, ‘Grey is the new black’.

34 Rory Cormac and Oliver J. Daddow, ‘Covert action failure and fiasco construction: William Hague’s 2011 Libyan venture’, Journal of European Public Policy, 25:5 (2017), pp. 690–707 (p. 702).

35 Ariel Whitfield Sobel, ‘All the world’s a stage: Covert action as theatrical performance’, Intelligence and National Security, 37:4 (2022), pp. 569–80 (p. 577).

36 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, p. 118.

37 Austin Carson and Keren Yarhi-Milo, ‘Covert communication: The intelligibility and credibility of signaling in secret’, Security Studies, 26:1 (2017), pp. 124–56 (p. 155).

38 Cormac, How to Stage a Coup, pp. 60, 215.

39 Herman Kahn, On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios (New York: Praeger, 1965).

40 Lawrence Freedman, ‘Review of War: Controlling Escalation’, International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944–), 55:1 (1979), pp. 97–8; L. L. Farrar, Jr., ‘Review of War: Controlling Escalation’, The American Historical Review, 83:4 (1978), pp. 971–2; Richard Smoke, War: Controlling Escalation (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2013).

41 Aaron Brantly, ‘Cyber actions by state actors: Motivation and utility’, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 27 (2014), pp. 465–84 (p. 476); Cormac, How to Stage a Coup, p. 14.

42 Loch K. Johnson, Secret Agencies: U.S. Intelligence in a Hostile World (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 60; Kahn, On Escalation, p. 37.

43 Brantly, ‘Cyber actions by state actors’, p. 476.

44 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, p. 113.

45 Loch K. Johnson, ‘Reflections on the ethics and effectiveness of America’s “third option”: Covert action and U.S. foreign policy’, Intelligence and National Security, 35:5 (2020), pp. 669–85 (p. 673).

46 Gregory F. Treverton, Intelligence for an Age of Terror (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), p. 223.

47 Jennifer M. Lind, ‘Pacifism or passing the buck? Testing theories of Japanese Security Policy’, International Security, 29:1 (2004), pp. 92–121 (p. 93).

48 Rory Cormac, Disrupt and Deny: Spies, Special Forces, and the Secret Pursuit of British Foreign Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018), p. 6; Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2019), p. 236; Jon Wiant, ‘A guide to teaching about covert action’, The Intelligencer, 19:2 (2012), pp. 61–2.

49 Johnson, ‘Reflections on the ethics and effectiveness of America’s “third option”’, pp. 670–5.

50 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, Allied Joint Doctrine (NATO Standardisation Office, 2017), pp. 17–18.

51 Johnson, ‘Reflections on the ethics and effectiveness of America’s “third option”’, p. 675.

52 John A. Gentry, ‘Diplomatic spying: How useful is it?’, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 34:3 (2021), pp. 432–62.

53 Michael Bar-Zohar and Nissim Mishal, Mossad: The Greatest Missions of the Israeli Secret Service (New York, NY: HarperCollins, 2012), pp. 169–70.

54 Thomas Grant, Jeremy Hutchinson’s Case Histories: From Lady Chatterley’s Lover to Howard Marks (London: John Murray, 2015), p. 315.

55 Reuters, ‘Why Ukrainian forces gave up Crimea without a fight – and NATO is alert’, (2017).

56 Jonas Hagmann, ‘Securitisation and the production of international order(s)’, Journal of International Relations and Development, 21:1 (2018), pp. 194–222 (pp. 200–1).

57 Elina Lange-Ionatamišvili, ‘Analysis of Russia’s information campaign against Ukraine: Examining non-military aspects of the crisis in Ukraine from a strategic communications perspective’ (Riga: NATO STRATCOM COE, 2015), p. p4. Numbering added.

58 Lanoszka, ‘Russian hybrid warfare’, p. 186.

59 Rod Thornton, ‘The changing nature of modern warfare: Responding to Russian information warfare’, The RUSI Journal, 160:4 (2015), pp. 40–8 (p. 44).

60 Lange-Ionatamišvili, ‘Analysis of Russia’s information campaign against Ukraine’, p. 4.

61 Executive Office of the President (EOP), ‘National Strategy for Combating Terrorism’ (2003), p. 11.

62 Lange-Ionatamišvili, ‘Analysis of Russia’s information campaign against Ukraine’, p. 4.

63 Thornton, ‘The changing nature of modern warfare’, p. 44.

64 Olga Bertelsen, Andreas Umland, Jan Goldman et al., Russian Active Measures Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow (Berlin: Ibidem Verlag, 2021), p. 28.

65 Laura Galante and Shaun Ee, ‘Defining Russian election interference: An analysis of select 2014 to 2018 cyber enabled incidents’, Issue Brief (Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, September 2018), available at: {https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Defining_Russian_Election_Interference_web.pdf}.

66 Heidi Blake, From Russia with Blood: The Kremlin’s Ruthless Assassination Program and Vladimir Putin’s Secret War on the West (New York: Mulholland Books/Little, 2020), p. 9.

67 Bertelsen et al., Russian Active Measures, pp. 30–1.

68 Bertelsen et al., Russian Active Measures, pp. 193–5.

69 William E. Paterson, Desmond Dinan, and Neill Nugent, The European Union in Crisis (London: Red Globe Press, 2017), p. 274.

70 Interfax Ukraine, ‘Ukraine to resume preparing agreement with EU when compensation for production drop found – Boiko’ (21 November 2013); Reuters, ‘Kiev protesters gather, EU dangles aid promise’ (2013).

71 Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, ‘2013 Economic Summary for Ukraine’, available at: {http://www.ier.com.ua/files//publications/ES_2013_en_fin.pdf}.

72 Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, ‘2013 Economic Summary for Ukraine’, pp. 7–8.

73 Thornton, ‘The changing nature of modern warfare’, p. 43.

74 Thornton, ‘The changing nature of modern warfare’, p. 44.

75 Yuka Hayashi and Joyu Wang, ‘Taiwan’s trade clash with China could benefit the U.S.’, Wall Street Journal (2023).

76 Lowenthal, Intelligence, p. 250.

77 William J. Daugherty, Executive Secrets: Covert Action and the Presidency (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2004), p. 4.

78 Harry August Rositzke, The CIA’s Secret Operations: Espionage, Counterespionage, and Covert Action (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988), p. 159.

79 Rositzke, The CIA’s Secret Operations, p. 161.

80 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, p. 114; Lowenthal, Intelligence, p. 250.

81 Lanoszka, ‘Russian hybrid warfare’, p. 184.

82 Thornton, ‘The changing nature of modern warfare’, p. 41.

83 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, p. 114.

84 Bettina Renz, ‘Russia and “Hybrid Warfare”’, Contemporary Politics, 22:3 (2016), pp. 283–300.

85 Agence France-Presse, ‘Mysterious spate of bombings hit Ukraine military hub’ (10 Dec 2014).

86 Loch K. Johnson, National Security Intelligence: Secret Operations in Defense of the Democracies (Cambridge: Polity, 2012), p. 83.

87 Lanoszka, ‘Russian hybrid warfare’, p. 186; ‘The Guardian view on Russian propaganda: The truth is out there’, The Guardian (2015).

88 Wæver, ‘Securitization and Desecuritization’, p. 6.

89 Robert Dover, Huw Dylan, and Michael S. Goodman (eds), The Palgrave Handbook of Security, Risk and Intelligence (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), p. 103; Thornton, ‘The changing nature of nodern warfare’, pp. 42–4.

90 Lange-Ionatamišvili, ‘Analysis of Russia’s information campaign against Ukraine’, p. 4.

91 Lange-Ionatamišvili, ‘Analysis of Russia’s information campaign against Ukraine’, p. 4.

92 Bettina Renz and Hanna Smith, Russia and Hybrid Warfare: Going Beyond the Label (Helsinki: Aleksanteri Institute, 2016), p. 7.

93 Thornton, ‘The changing nature of modern warfare’, p. 44.

94 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, pp. 116–17.

95 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, p. 118.

96 Cormac et al., ‘What constitutes successful covert action?’, p. 118.