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RECAP: FORECASTING THE 2012 ELECTION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2013

James E. Campbell
James E. Campbell*
Affiliation:
University at Buffalo, SUNY
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Extract

The October 2012 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the months leading up to the election. In the following articles, the forecasters assess the accuracy of their models.

Information

Type
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , January 2013 , pp. 37
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

The October 2012 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the months leading up to the election. In the following articles, the forecasters assess the accuracy of their models.

A month after Election Day and well after the post-mortems had been written, vote counting continues. The national two-party popular vote percentage for President Obama used in these postmortems was updated to 51.8\%. As the issue goes to press the two-party vote share for President Obama now stands at 51.9%.

Editor's Note: A typographical error in the October 2012 issue ofPSforecasting symposium's summary table of the forecasts (PS: Political Science and Politics45 (4): 612) stated that Klarner predicted Obama would receive 51.2% of the two-party popular vote. His prediction was that Obama would receive 51.3%.

We regret the error.