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Toward individualistic reproduction: Solving the fertility crisis could require a further marginalization of men

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 April 2026

Mads Larsen*
Affiliation:
Psychology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway
Leif Edward Ottesen Kennair
Affiliation:
Psychology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway
Maryanne L. Fisher
Affiliation:
Psychology, Saint Mary’s University in Halifax, Canada
*
Corresponding author: Mads Larsen; Email: madsla@ucla.edu

Abstract

The cross-national correlation between gender equality and lower fertility is exceptionally strong (r ≈ 0.81). After the 1960s, a unique mating regime spread across parts of the world—with female emancipation, individual mate choice, and effective birth control—followed by a continuing rise in singlehood and declining fertility. Almost all women still want to reproduce, but many struggle to find a good-enough partner. This article argues from an evolutionary perspective that many men’s utility to “free women” has been so diminished that solving the fertility crisis by increasing pair-bonding rates seems unfeasible. A viable means for aiding the survival of low-fertility nations could be to provide women with the economic and social resources necessary for them to conclude that having children alone makes for a better life than remaining childless. Such policies would likely exacerbate male marginalization, but new technologies are on the horizon that could offer men reproductive equality.

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Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
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This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Association for Politics and the Life Sciences
Figure 0

Figure 1. Even moderate departures from replacement fertility produce large cumulative losses when compounded across generations. With a fertility rate of 1.6 (e.g., USA), about 44% of a cohort remain after three generations; with a rate of 0.6 (e.g., Shanghai), only 2.3% remain.

Figure 1

Figure 2. The Norwegian fertility rate reflects a pattern observed across a line of Western nations, with pronounced declines beginning around 1900, 1968, and 2010. Post-1968 gender equality initially drove fertility collapse, then female-friendly policies partially countered the effects of women’s emancipation, but only temporarily, as new pressures in the 2010s further complicated pair-bonding and reproduction.Note: Data represent five-year intervals until 1965 and annual figures from 1968 on, derived from Statistics Norway (2012, 2025a).YearsFertility rateCauses1890s–1930s4.5–1.9Decline in child mortality; urbanization reduced children’s economic utility; mass male migration; new attitudes to family planning and birth control; World War I and the Great Depression1940s–1960s1.9–2.9Economic boom; early, near-universal marriage; breadwinner-housewife model reduced female opportunity cost; welfare and maternity leave; subsidized housing; pronatalist culture1960s–1980s2.9–1.7Female education and work; legal abortion and reliable contraceptives; delayed marriage and motherhood; increasing divorce and singlehood1980s–20101.7–2.0Female-friendly policies reduced working women’s opportunity cost; subsidized, universal kindergartens; expanded parental leave and welfare; increasing male participation in domestic labor and childcare; mass immigration to maintain/grow populations2010–2.0–1.4Rising singlehood; expensive housing; women’s higher opportunity cost in more competitive labor markets; parenthood seen as optional; worries about the future; dysfunctional dating; see also Table 1Sources: Bongaarts and Potter (1983); Caldwell and Schindlmayr (2003); Rønsen (2004), Lesthaeghe (2010), Galor (2012), Van Bavel and Reher (2013), and Hellstrand et al. (2021).

Figure 2

Figure 3. (a) Percentage of Norwegian women not living with a partner. (b) Increasing non-cohabitation among women aged 20–34 shows an observable association with Norway’s declining total fertility.Notes: (a) Data represent 5-year age intervals (unweighted by cohort size), except in 1988, when values reflect ages 23, 28, 33, 38, and 43. Data from Statistics Norway (2022a) (b) Single-rate values shown as 3-year moving average, derived from Statistics Norway (2022a). Fertility data from Statistics Norway (2025a).

Figure 3

Figure 4. There is a strong association between the freedoms a nation grants its women and how high its fertility rate is. The Pearson correlation is r ≈ 0.81, while the rank order correlation is r ≈ 0.86, N = 172.Note: Data from United Nations (2024) and UNDP (2025). Numbers from 2023.

Figure 4

Figure 5. After the Church’s dissolution of Europe’s kinship societies, Western psychology and mating practices were put on a path toward greater individualization. Soon, we might be headed for a Fourth Sexual Revolution, as new technology could facilitate that more individuals care for children without having a partner—like early hominins did. Framework from Larsen (2025c).1st Sexual RevolutionLifelong monogamy; female consent; prohibition of polygyny and cousin marriage; arranged marriage but individual mate preferences more important; from tribal living in kinship societies to family living in feudal societies2nd Sexual RevolutionIncrease in wage labor, mobility, and individualism motivated young people to demand individual mate choice; more premarital sex; increase in illegitimacy; libertine ideals; countered by Romanticism3rd Sexual RevolutionIndividual mate choice on long- and short-term markets; effective contraceptives; legal abortion; gender equality; less marriage; more divorce; increasing single rates; declining fertility; ideals of self-realization through both pair-bonding and promiscuous sex; increasing age at first birth; less need for biparental care; seems to have triggered a Mating Equilibrium Shift rendered maladaptive by contraceptives4th Sexual RevolutionArtificial womb technology; sustainable abundance from AI and robotics; gene editing; robot nannies and partners help women and men solo parent; AI-driven mate matching; other speculative technologies that could influence mating and reproduction

Figure 5

Figure 6. After the West’s Third Sexual Revolution, Norwegian women have become mothers at an increasingly high age, a pattern we see across nations with declining fertility. Note: Data from Statistics Norway (2025b).

Figure 6

Figure 7. (a) Men’s reported lifetime sex partners. (b) Share of sexual partnerships.

Figure 7

Table 1. A line of modern pressures may influence women to emphasize short- rather than long-term mating strategies, which underpin our contemporary Mating Equilibrium Shift. Different environments facilitate distinct equilibria between short- and long-term mating, all of which could be adaptive, but reliable contraceptives seem to be the main mismatch that hinders today’s mating equilibrium from providing populations with sufficient reproduction.

Figure 8

Figure 8. Gender-equal nations have experienced a dramatic reduction in stable pair-bonding, which suppresses fertility. In their most fertile years, an increasing number of women do not have a spouse or domestic partner.

Figure 9

Figure 9. A decreasing number of nations are reproducing above the replacement rate of 2.1 (darkest color). There is a strong correlation between gender inequality and high fertility, indicating that continued ultralow fertility in gender-equal nations in the long term could threaten hard-won female freedoms.Note: Data from United Nations (2024).

Figure 10

Figure 10. Different environments facilitate distinct combinations of short- and long-term mating strategies. Global pattern from 6 million years ago until the Middle Ages, then Western. We predict an increase in women’s emphasis on short-term strategies in the decades ahead. This very approximate suggestion for a possible evolution of mating equilibria synthesizes the works of Ågren and Erickson (2005), Chapais (2008, 2011), Fisher (2016), Henrich (2020), Karmin et al. (2015), Opie et al. (2013), Seccombe (1992), and Zeng et al. (2018). Other sources propose different evolutions of equilibria.

Figure 11

Figure 11. Pathway to ultralow fertility.