This paper explores whether a positive unexpected exogenous (unearned) wealth shock affects household structure decisions in different Spanish regions. The Christmas draw of the Spanish National Lottery is used in a natural experiment as a proxy for exogenous random variations in provincial wealth. A static and dynamic linear panel event-study design allows for control of changing economic and demographic conditions at the province level and the dynamic effects on the analyzed decisions. The evidence is consistent with families getting divorced and having children when the province in which they live experiences an unexpected increase in wealth, but no conclusive effect on wedding plans is found.

We study whether the increased adoption of available automation technologies allows economies to avoid the negative effect of aging on per capita output. We develop a quantitative theory in which firms choose to which extent they automate in response to a declining workforce and rising old-age dependency. An important element in our model is the integration of two capital types: automation capital that acts as a substitute to human labor, and traditional capital that is a complement to labor. Empirically, our model's predictions largely match data regarding automation (robotization) density across OECD countries. Simulating the model, we find that aging-induced automation only partially compensates the negative growth effect of aging in the absence of technical progress in automation technology. One reason is that automated tasks are no perfect substitutes for non-automated tasks. A second reason is that automation raises the interest rate and thus inhibits positive behavioral reactions to aging (later retirement and investment in human capital). Moreover, increased automation generates a falling net labor share of income and rising welfare inequality. We evaluate alternative policy responses to cope with this inequality.

Fertility decline in human history is a complex enigma. Different triggers have been proposed, among others the increased demand for human capital resulting in parents making a quantity–quality (QQ) trade-off. This is the first study that examines the existence of a QQ trade-off and the possible gender bias by analyzing fertility intentions rather than fertility outcomes. We rely on the unified growth theory to understand the QQ trade-off conceptually and a discrete choice experiment conducted among 426 respondents in Ethiopia to analyze fertility intentions empirically. We confirm the existence of a QQ trade-off only when the number of children is less than six and find that intentions are gendered in two ways: (i) boys are preferred over girls, and (ii) men are willing to trade-off more education in return for more children. Results imply that a focus on both stimulating intentions for education, especially girls' education, and on family size intentions is important to accelerate the demographic transition.

We show that the exposure to war-related violence increases the quantity of children temporarily, with permanent negative consequences for the quality of the current and previous cohorts. Our empirical evidence is based on Nepal, which experienced a 10 year long civil conflict of varying intensity. We exploit that villages affected by the conflict had the same trend in fertility as non-affected villages prior to the onset of conflict and employ a difference-in-differences estimator. We find that women in affected villages increased their fertility during the conflict by 19%, while child height-for-age declined by 10%. Supporting evidence suggests that the temporary fertility increase was the main pathway leading to reduced child height, as opposed to direct impacts of the conflict.

We examine the effects of the postulated metric on the measurement of well-being, by comparing, in the (income, lifetime) space, two indexes: the equivalent income index and the equivalent lifetime index. The conditions under which the equivalent lifetime index exists are more restrictive than the ones under which the equivalent income index exists, but it is possible to define an alternative equivalent lifetime index, based on two reference income levels, for which the non-existence problem is less acute. Those indexes are also shown to satisfy different properties concerning interpersonal well-being comparisons, which can lead to contradictory rankings. While those incompatibilities arise under distinct indifference maps, we also explore the effects of the metric while relying on a unique indifference map, and show that, even in that case, the postulated metric matters for the measurement of well-being.

As males in Mexico have the authority in households and dominate migration flows to the US, this paper argues that having a son as the first child provides an early additional candidate for the anchor position in Mexico and for migration trips to the US, making households better off. Fathers with longer migration experiences have higher expectations for future migration trips and stronger incentives to manipulate the sex of their first child. The empirical analysis confirms that by presenting positive effects of fathers’ previous migration experiences on the probability of having a son as a firstborn child, though abortions are widely illegal in Mexico.

This paper examines the impact of female education on fertility outcomes by using the Universal Primary Education (UPE) program in Malawi as a natural experiment. The finding indicates that the UPE policy improves rural women's educational attainment by 0.42 years and an additional year of female education decreases women's number of children ever born and the number of living children by 0.39 and 0.34, respectively. An analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the decreased fertility rates are likely driven by the reduction in women's fertility preferences, the postponement of marriage, and the delay of motherhood. Contrarily, the study finds no evidence that increased female education affects women's labor force participation and the use of modern contraception.

This study explores the relationship between maternal working hours and a child's emotional well-being using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Child well-being is assessed through self-reported happiness and a well-being index that includes concerns, temperament, bullying, and behaviour. Results show a positive association between maternal employment and child well-being, supported by factor analysis combining child, mother, and teacher reports. The association remains consistent across income levels and is unaffected by commuting time or cohabitation status. These findings highlight the importance of maternal employment and contextual factors in shaping child well-being.

We used the 2016 Hong Kong Census data and the diagonal reference model to investigate the effects of partners' educational pairings on fertility in Hong Kong. Our findings suggest a negative relationship between couples' educational achievements and their fertility. Moreover, males' educational attainment is more consequential of whether having children or not and both males' and females' educational attainments are determinants of the number of children to raise. In addition, the more educated a wife is relative to her husband, the less likely the couple is to have children. Once these educationally hypogamous couples have at least one child, they tend to have fewer children than their homogamous counterparts. By contrast, couples with a relatively more educated male are more likely to have children and tend to rear more children than those in educationally homogamous marriages.

This paper examines how the number of siblings that parents have affects their fertility decisions in China. The population control policies in China affected individuals unequally across birth cohorts and regions. The exogenous variation in fertility is used to identify the effect of the number of siblings on the number of children for the next generation. The results show that a couple tends to have 0.034–0.068 more children (2.3–4.6% of the average number of children) and is 2.4–6.8 percentage points more likely to violate the One-Child Policy (9.3–27.1% of the violation rate) if the husband and the wife have one more sibling each. Moreover, the effect on fertility is stronger for couples in lower-income provinces where the fertility rate is higher and in rural areas where the One-Child Policy was enforced less strictly. Finally, I show that the ideal family size of the husband and wife is an important channel through which the number of siblings affects fertility. I also find that the effect of people's number of siblings has a larger effect on their ideal number of children than on their actual number of children, suggesting that they are constrained from achieving their fertility ideals.

Theoretical models have ambiguous predictions on how workplace gender composition affects the incidence of marriage. Marital search theory suggests that having more opportunities for interactions between members of the opposite gender increases the likelihood of marriage. Yet, according to overload choice theory, people with more options could actually delay or forgo marriage if the increase in the number of choices makes it more difficult for them to make marriage decisions. I explore how changes in the gender composition within occupation and industry over the past 40 years affect marriage decisions. I find that a higher share of opposite gender coworkers within a person's occupation-industry is associated with a decreased likelihood of ever having been married.

This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts × 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted “U-shape” relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961–2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior and green technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

The aim of this paper is to analyze gender differences in the determinants of the gap between actual and desired fertility in Spain. To this aim, we exploit the 2018 Fertility Survey (EF2018) from the Spanish Statistical Institute (INE). A binary probit model shows that gender differences in the risk (and its pattern) of not reaching the desired family size are generally more pronounced amongst parents than amongst childless adults. For women, a high level of education, a potentially unstable employment situation (as an employee in the private sector) and not living with a partner increases the risk of not having the desired number of children. For men, variables related to income instability or low monthly income cause a more pronounced differential between desired and actual parenthood than amongst women, while neither educational level nor partner status – amongst those who are already fathers – significantly influences their probability of not reaching the desired number of children.

The government of Uganda introduced an education reform that eliminated school fees for primary school-age children in 1997. This paper finds that an increase in education, generated by the reform, has a positive impact on women's empowerment. Specifically, an increase in schooling, due to the reform, improves women's involvement in decision making within the household by increasing their likelihood of having a final say on issues related to their own health, about large household expenses, and regarding visits to family or relatives. Education enhances women's cognitive ability but has no impact on women's labor market opportunities and attitudes toward gender-based violence.

This paper investigates the effects of demographic shifts on labor productivity by leveraging variation in the age structure of Italian regions. These effects are analyzed along a first channel – the direct relation between population age and productivity – and a second channel capturing the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates regional productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and use instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates yield a hump-shaped age-productivity profile peaking between 35 and 40 years. We also document non-linear effects of regional age dispersion on productivity.

In summer 2014, southern Israel experienced rocket attacks from the Hamas-ruled Gaza strip on a nearly daily basis for over 50 consecutive days. We exploit this unexpected escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and variation across localities in Israel in the amount of sirens that warned of rocket attacks to measure the effect of conflict intensity on birth weight and gestation length among pregnant women during this period. In addition to the common notion that conflict intensity induces stress and anxiety, we show changes in prenatal care in response to sirens. This maternal behavioral response varies based on socioeconomic status, which ultimately differentially affected birth outcomes. While mothers ranked high socioeconomically likely had the resources to increase their prenatal care and shield their fetuses from the negative shock of sirens, mothers ranked low socioeconomically did not have these resources and even decreased prenatal care.

We use data on Latino children in the United States who have been randomly assigned calculation tests in English or Spanish to check for the so-called bilingual advantage, the notion that knowing more than one language improves individuals’ other cognitive skills. After controlling for different characteristics of children and their parents, as well as children's time in the US, we find a bilingual advantage among children who read or write in English and Spanish but not for those who only speak or understand both languages. In particular, bilingual readers or writers perform one-fourth to one-third of a standard deviation better than monolingual children, equal to learning gains of an additional school year. Applying the Oster test, we find that selection on unobservables would need to be 3–4 times stronger than selection on observables to explain away our results. The bilingual advantage is stronger among children in two-parent households with siblings and for those at the upper end of the ability distribution.

While the Chinese government's stated position is to support religious freedom, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is officially atheist. Individuals who profess faith are typically unable to join and members who practice a religion face expulsion and a loss of benefits. This paper analyzes the extent to which the CCP's policies regarding religion may influence religious identification over the life cycle in China. To do so, we contrast changes in religious affiliation before and after retirement for CCP members and non-CCP members. We find a significant increase of religious activities and religious faith in CCP members after retirement – suggesting: (1) people's acknowledgment of religious belief is significantly influenced by CCP regulations and (2) the biggest influence from a material benefits perspective occurs for those CCP members employed in the Chinese government system.

We analyze the impact of extending mandatory education from five to eight years on mothers’ involvement in early childhood educational activities, using data from the Turkish Time Use Survey. The compulsory education reform substantially increased the likelihood of mothers completing at least middle school (eight years of schooling). However, it had no significant effect on mothers’ time spent on early childhood educational activities, such as reading, playing, and talking to children. Instead, the reform increased mothers’ total time with children, particularly through housework and social activities involving children. These findings suggest that studies linking maternal education to greater time investment in childcare may suffer from omitted variable bias, as unobserved factors like maternal intelligence and values influence both educational attainment and childcare behaviors. Our findings are critical given that nearly half of pre-primary-age children globally are not enrolled in formal education and primarily remain in home settings.

This paper examines how number of siblings affects employment under the relaxation of the One-Child Policy in China. We explore the One-and-A-Half-Child Policy in 1980s and examine its long-term impact on siblings and employment. With the data from 2010–2018 China Family Panel Studies, we find that individuals tend to have a larger number of siblings and have a higher probability of working in the places where the One-and-A-Half-Child Policy was implemented earlier. Using the degree of the impact of this policy as an instrumental variable for number of siblings, we find that one more sibling would increase the likelihood of working by 9.0 percentage points and increase the likelihood of working in the non-agricultural sector by 5.1 percentage points. Females are more affected by the relaxation than males. We also discuss the major mechanisms through which siblings affect employment. We find that the care-sharing effect of siblings increases labor supply and the social network effect of siblings brings more job opportunities and increases employment. The One-and-A-Half-Child Policy improves the labor market outcomes through both the channel of sharing care and the channel of social network.