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The PollyVote Forecast for the 2024 US Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2024

Andreas Graefe Open the ORCID record for Andreas Graefe [Opens in a new window]
Andreas Graefe*
Affiliation:
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, Germany
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Abstract

Originally founded in 2004 to improve election forecasting accuracy through evidence-based methods, the PollyVote project applies the principle of combining forecasts to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. The 2024 forecast uses the same methodology as in previous elections by combining forecasts from four methods: polls, expectations, models, and naive forecasts. By averaging within and across these methods, PollyVote predicts a close race, giving Kamala Harris a slight edge over Donald Trump in both the two-party popular vote (50.8 vs. 49.2%) and the Electoral College (276 vs. 262 votes). The forecast gives Harris a 65% chance of winning the popular vote and a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College, making both outcomes toss-ups. Compared to the combined PollyVote, component forecasts that rely on trial-heat polls tend to favor Harris, whereas methods that rely on alternative measures are less optimistic about the Democratic candidate’s chances. The polls may be overestimating Harris’s lead.

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Article
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PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 58 , Issue 2: Forecasting the 2024 US Election , April 2025 , pp. 306 - 311
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of American Political Science Association

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