Book contents
- Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application
- Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Copyright Acknowledgements
- Part I Analytics: Probability, Evaluation, Decision Trees, and Strategies for Decision Making
- 1 Introduction to Decision Theory and Decision Making
- 2 Thinking Like a Gambler: For All the Gambles of Life
- 3 Using Decision Trees to See through the Forest Ahead
- 4 Strategies for Decision Making in an Environment of Risk: How to Get the Most and Avoid the Worst, No Matter What
- Introduction to Part II: Cognitive Processes of Decision Making
- Part III Applications, Examples, and Selected Topics
- References
- Index
3 - Using Decision Trees to See through the Forest Ahead
from Part I - Analytics: Probability, Evaluation, Decision Trees, and Strategies for Decision Making
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 23 October 2025
Book contents
- Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application
- Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Copyright Acknowledgements
- Part I Analytics: Probability, Evaluation, Decision Trees, and Strategies for Decision Making
- 1 Introduction to Decision Theory and Decision Making
- 2 Thinking Like a Gambler: For All the Gambles of Life
- 3 Using Decision Trees to See through the Forest Ahead
- 4 Strategies for Decision Making in an Environment of Risk: How to Get the Most and Avoid the Worst, No Matter What
- Introduction to Part II: Cognitive Processes of Decision Making
- Part III Applications, Examples, and Selected Topics
- References
- Index
Summary
Decisions often involve a sequence of acts, events, and outcomes. First comes the act of making the decision and implementing it. Next comes the event which is out of the control of the decision maker. Following that is the outcome, which is a result of the decision made and the event that followed. Depending on the details of the situation, second, third, or more act-event-outcome sequences may follow the first.
Decision trees are a means to logically layout the structure and architecture of single- or multiple-sequence decisions. Decision trees produce prescriptive solutions to multi-stage decisions and indicate in advance the optimum strategy to be taken and optimal decisions to be made based on unfolding events.
Information
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- Chapter
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- Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application , pp. 28 - 44Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2025
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