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7 - Heterogeneity and Uncertainty of Inflation Expectations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2020

Tobias F. Rötheli
Affiliation:
Universität Erfurt, Germany
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Summary

In previous chapters, we have focused on the mean of inflation expectations. Thus, we have answered the question, for example, where the average person sees the price level a year hence. Here we want to turn to further dimensions of expectations. In particular, it is obvious that people differ with respect to their expectations. Clearly, the standard rational expectations hypothesis is silent regarding expectations heterogeneity. It assumes that all agents use the same relevant information. The expectations model of Mankiw et al. (2003) is an interesting departure from the standard model. These authors propose that only a fraction of the public makes an informed forecast at any point in time. The rest stick to the expectations they have formed earlier. This approach is similar to the model already discussed by Carroll (2003) where experts play the role of providing informed forecasts. Again, the model of pattern-based expectations offers a clear alternative.

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The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
Macroeconomics Meets Psychology
, pp. 78 - 84
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2020

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