I hope this study will be of interest to all sides in the ongoing Brexit debate, in the United Kingdom and on the Continent. I hope, in particular, that its analyses will be seen as a corrective or, at the least, an alternative to the current, shorter-term explanations about “what happened” or, for those on the “remain” side of the argument, “what went wrong”. It will give some comfort to those who argue that continued full EU membership was becoming practically and politically impossible for the UK while also comforting those who argued that the UK would have done better to have established and maintained a new relationship from the inside. While not an apologia for David Cameron and his ill-fated decision to promise a referendum, the study sets that decision and its consequences in the broader context of an EU member state that had, in retrospect, been slipping its moorings for some considerable time.

This is an academic study and I hope that I have been suitably objective in my analyses. But I would like, at the outset, to nail my personal colours firmly to the mast. I campaigned energetically for “remain” in 2016 and, if I had not long ago lost my vote to the 15-year-rule, I would have voted accordingly on 23 June that year. I believe the UK’s decision to leave the EU is bad both for the UK and the EU. And if, by some chance, the UK were to remain fully in the EU, I would be conditionally content. However, under those circumstances I would be the first to argue that the UK’s longer-term relationship with the EU would need to be settled satisfactorily for both sides. That would involve the UK recognizing once and for all that the EU is a progressive evolutionary process and not a fixed state. It would also involve the UK elaborating a proper strategy – perhaps in agreement with the EU – rather than reverting to the traditional unilateral policy of ad hoc tactical reactions and rear-guard braking actions. It would also involve the EU recognizing the UK’s continued exceptionalism in return for its continued sincere cooperation.