Introduction

Food security is a multidimensional phenomenon. According to the FAO (1996), it occurs “when all people, at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. Within Arab countries, a number of contributing factors act to undermine the realization of food security. Food imports are responsible for over 50 percent of calories consumed (FAO, 2008). However, the capacity to generate foreign exchange to finance such food imports is dwindling (Breisinger et al., 2012). The global food price spikes of 2008 and 2011 highlighted the vulnerability of Arab countries to swings in commodity prices and has lead Haddad et al. (2011) to call for a renewed focus upon domestic and regional food production.

A number of constraints associated with agriculture in less developed countries are shared by Arab nations. High population densities drive small plot sizes, while poor soil quality and a dependence upon rain fed agriculture act to escalate vulnerability to climatic shocks (Sahley et al., 2005). In Sudan and Yemen for instance, rainfed agriculture accounts for over 80 percent of cereal production (FAO, 2008). In general, low and poorly distributed rainfall throughout the Arab region (250 – 600 mm) leads to frequent dry spells and moisture stress (Haddad et al. 2011).

In response to drought, rural households exhibit a number of coping strategies. A survey of over 500 individuals in Western Sudan uncovered alterations to consumption practices in response to shocks (Ibnouf, 2011). The number and diversity of meals consumed by a household for example, were frequently reported to have been reduced (Ibnouf, 2011). In addition, results revealed changes to cropping patterns with increased cultivation of drought resistant crops such as sorghum and millet (Ibnouf, 2011). Further studies have found households in drought prone areas are often reliant upon social networks and safety nets in the form of input subsidies and food for work programs (Ziervogel et al., 2006).

The Potential for Simulation Tools

Attempts have been made to employ modelling techniques in evaluating strategies that promote food security among smallholder households. Masters et al. (2000) for instance define an optimization model that interprets the relationship between household nutritional intake and labour productivity, with added consumption, resource and borrowing constraints.