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3 - The Future of Yemen: The Economic and Security Roles of the GCC

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 August 2025

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Summary

This chapter explores and analyzes how the interests of the main actors in the Yemen war shape the options the GCC has for its role in the future of Yemen's economy and security. The analysis is based on current research on Yemen-GCC relations, news reports and media interviews with Yemeni and GCC officials about the war. It also includes insights from author's interviews with current and former Yemeni officials as well as regional and Western officials working on stabilizing and humanitarian efforts Yemen. The chapter starts by placing the GCC role in Yemen in the context of political economy theory, then discusses and analyzes what interests are at stake in Yemen for the main supporters of the coalition (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) and the main factions in Yemen (the Hadi government, the Huthis, and Ali Abdullah Saleh). This is followed by a comparative discussion of lessons from the reconstruction of Western Europe to analyze different policy options for Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen. The chapter concludes with a summary of the options with their risks and benefits.

Theoretical Framework for Understanding GCC Role in Yemen

There are theoretical frameworks for understanding the GCC's role in Yemen within international relations, social and political science. International relations theories interpret how the national interests of Yemen and the GCC players are served in their relationship. A realist perspective might focus on those actors with access to military and economic power, while a liberal perspective might focus on the regional and political dynamics at play in the conflict, such as between the former North and South Yemeni states. A constructivist perspective might likely focus on how history and grievances are at play. A political scientist might be more interested in looking at the political dynamics of the relationship and whether Yemen's political structure is in harmony or in tension with the political structure of GCC countries, i.e. republican vs. monarchy. A social science perspective might concentrate on the tribal, religious and socio-political institutions, ideologies and preferences in interpreting how the GCC might play an effective role in Yemen. This chapter takes a political economy approach to interpreting potential GCC security and economic role in Yemen, which includes elements of the international relations approach as well as political science.

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