1. Introduction

This paper puts forward a proposal for lessening the danger of conflict in the Gulf. The contention is that this requires a wider regional understanding than one linked to the Gulf states, and that the appropriate framework is that of an Organization of Security and Cooperation in the Middle East (OSCME). After the deadlock of the democratisation movements of the Arab Spring, there has been a move away from measures such as negotiation and mediation, and towards the use of military force in the Middle Eastern region. Armed conflicts have escalated, with no clear winner. It is time, therefore, to design a mechanism for conflict prevention appropriate to the Middle East as a whole. Security is the foundation for all human activities - economic, social, environmental, etc – and the issue now is: what security model is practical and feasible in the Middle East? New regional security organization should be based on concepts that promote conflict transformation in the region.

Preventive diplomacy is a concept and policy that inhibits the escalation of crisis at a stage prior to the outbreak of armed conflicts. Diplomatic measures and the consent of the actors in conflict are fundamental to the approach. Examples of the approach are the UN's conflict prevention measures. Preventive diplomacy is clearly distinguished from “preventive war”, such as the US-led campaign in Iraq in 2003. Peace-building is the reconstruction of a post-conflict society with the principle of human security, while preventive diplomacy focuses on the stage prior to the occurrence of armed conflict and casualties.

The most renowned regional organization practicing preventive diplomacy is the OSCE. This paper calls the preventive diplomacy of the OSCE “the OSCE model.” It is composed of two types of activities: operational preventive diplomacy and structural preventive diplomacy. Operational preventive diplomacy consists of early actions, including fact-finding, analysis, and early warnings; and measures taken after the breakout of small-scale armed conflicts, such as late warning, conciliation, mediation, and preventive deployment. Structural preventive diplomacy is composed of military confidence-building measures (CBMs), non-military confidence-building measures, and human-dimension activities. Non-military CBMs are mainly aimed at the causes of intra-state conflict. Examples are the issue of minority citizenship, water problems, police reforms, and such like. Human-dimension activities in the OSCE are the promotion of democratization, the protection of human rights and the rights of minorities, and the guarantee of the freedom of media (see Table 1 at the end of the paper, and Figure 1).