1. Introduction

The current restructuring of the global order, with the rise of new powers and the rebalancing in the roles of established powers, impinges most directly on the Gulf states within the context of the Indian Ocean. This chapter documents the changes in the strategic balance occurring in and around the Indian Ocean and assesses the significance of these changes for the Gulf states. The relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Gulf states can only be understood within the wider context: the growing naval/ military strength of the “rising global powers” in the Indian Ocean, and the changing balance of naval/military strength among these latter powers, as well as that between them and the powers whose navies have traditionally dominated the Indian Ocean.

Before analysing the strategic dimensions, the economic significance of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) across the Indian Ocean for the Gulf states needs to be addressed. This will be done in sections 2 and 3. What is important is not just the contemporary economic significance (section 2) but also the projection of how Gulf trade across the Indian Ocean may be expected to develop in the future (section 3).

The chapter will contend that while there are considerable dangers, and some which the Gulf states would not be able to counter (especially conflict between major powers in the Indian Ocean, with the closure of sea lanes), there are nonetheless opportunities and also strategies which can lessen the extent and range of possible dangers. The most immediate danger to Gulf lies in the competition between major naval powers being brought into the Gulf arena – through Gulf states aligning themselves militarily with different powers (in the course of a wider Indian Ocean confrontation) and providing base facilities for their chosen allies. To avoid this danger, Gulf states need to consider carefully the option of creating a Gulf security community needs, where all eight states agree a framework of security which controls and limits external naval involvement (as well as providing mechanisms and procedures for dispute-settlement among Gulf states). At another level, Gulf states need to play an active role in the existing and projected organisations which seek to promote cooperation and understanding among the powers whose navies play significant roles in the Indian Ocean.