Introduction

I hazard a guess that people know enough about growth to know how to nurture it – mostly. But when growth stops or collapses, they do not know enough about protection or about novelty to know how to renew confidently for the next phase of growth. And they do not know how the two – growth and novelty – interact. As one consequence, economic forecasters, for example, do well in predicting rates of growth while on a growth path. They do a poor job at times of recession, or even worse at times of looming depression.

That is why I said ‘mostly’. Growth of a cell or a society occurs gradually. It builds potential that accumulates slowly and it creates two conflicting attributes – increasing potential but also increasing vulnerability. Increase in potential roughly represents an increase in wealth represented in those structures that acquire, store, maintain and use potential. Increase in wealth gives potential for alternative futures. The increase in vulnerability comes from increase in structure that adds complexity but also vulnerability. As a consequence, eventually cells can die and societies can revolt. Growth then stops or reverses.

But cells and societies also reproduce and reinvent in the process of cyclic transformations. That is when evolution and deep changes are created. The bewildering, entrancing, unpredictable nature of nature and people, the richness, diversity and changeability of life come from that evolutionary dance generated by cycles of growth, collapse, reorganization, renewal and re-establishment.