Abstract

This chapter surveys the literature regarding potential future fossil fuel carbon emissions in the absence of explicit control policies. We have assembled 30 base cases and uncertainty analysis trajectories from 18 separate analyses of fossil fuel carbon emissions for comparison to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1991 Integrated Analysis of Country Case Studies. We discuss global forecasts of fossil fuel carbon emissions and associated energy consumption, regional forecasts of fossil fuel carbon emissions and associated energy production and consumption, analyses that have explicitly explored the uncertainty associated with global energy and fossil fuel carbon emissions, and differences in key assumptions among various base cases.

Introduction

In our survey of the literature on potential future fossil fuel carbon emissions in the absence of explicit control policies, we have assembled 30 base cases and uncertainty analysis trajectories from 18 separate analyses (Table 14.1, column 2) of fossil fuel carbon emissions for comparison to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1991). A list of the studies, dates of publication, and models used is given in Table 14.1. Six of these trajectories have been drawn from the results of the 12th Energy Modeling Forum, “Global Climate Change: Energy Sector Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emission Control Strategies” (EMF-12), and reflect a comparison of base cases with some standardization of assumptions. We have made no attempt to create an assessment of models. Several thorough literature reviews already perform that function.