Preemptive Authoritarianism in the Former Soviet Union (the Case of Belarus)
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
INTRODUCTION
The wave of democratic electoral revolutions in Eastern Europe and postcommunist Eurasia revived one of the most disputable but nonetheless appealing arguments in the theory of democratization: that is, successful democratic breakthroughs in one or several places help to shape the timing and dynamic of transformation in others. This interconnectivity of transitions in time (and space) is described in terms such as “contagion,” “diffusion,” or a “demonstration effect.” Indeed, although hardly a decisive factor, the evidence that contagion played an important role in transmitting the spirit of democracy and techniques for achieving it from Serbia in 2000 to Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004, and Kyrgyzstan in 2005 is evident.
There is more than enough evidence that a large community of activists, policy advisors, local and international NGOs, and media were purposefully involved in translating the experience, strategy, and tactics of successful revolutions to new territories. This likely led to a repeated feeling of déjà vu among the international community, as the world read and watched television scenes replayed over and over of yet another autocrat being ousted and a new democratic leader being installed by “people power.”
Why is contagion so important and vivid in this wave of democratic revolutions? First, as Valerie Bunce asserts, there is a unique fellowship of democratic activists in the entire postcommunist world (that is, spreading from Prague to the far east in Russia) who share a common experience of the past and on this basis have developed a sense of responsibility for helping their thus far less fortunate neighbors and comrades to achieve their dreams and goals of democracy and freedom.
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