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11 - Contagion Deterred

Preemptive Authoritarianism in the Former Soviet Union (the Case of Belarus)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Vitali Silitski
Affiliation:
Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, Vilnius-Minsk
Valerie Bunce
Affiliation:
Cornell University, New York
Michael McFaul
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
Kathryn Stoner-Weiss
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
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Summary

INTRODUCTION

The wave of democratic electoral revolutions in Eastern Europe and postcommunist Eurasia revived one of the most disputable but nonetheless appealing arguments in the theory of democratization: that is, successful democratic breakthroughs in one or several places help to shape the timing and dynamic of transformation in others. This interconnectivity of transitions in time (and space) is described in terms such as “contagion,” “diffusion,” or a “demonstration effect.” Indeed, although hardly a decisive factor, the evidence that contagion played an important role in transmitting the spirit of democracy and techniques for achieving it from Serbia in 2000 to Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004, and Kyrgyzstan in 2005 is evident.

There is more than enough evidence that a large community of activists, policy advisors, local and international NGOs, and media were purposefully involved in translating the experience, strategy, and tactics of successful revolutions to new territories. This likely led to a repeated feeling of déjà vu among the international community, as the world read and watched television scenes replayed over and over of yet another autocrat being ousted and a new democratic leader being installed by “people power.”

Why is contagion so important and vivid in this wave of democratic revolutions? First, as Valerie Bunce asserts, there is a unique fellowship of democratic activists in the entire postcommunist world (that is, spreading from Prague to the far east in Russia) who share a common experience of the past and on this basis have developed a sense of responsibility for helping their thus far less fortunate neighbors and comrades to achieve their dreams and goals of democracy and freedom.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2009

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References

Way, Lucan, “Authoritarian State-Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine.” World Politics, 57 (January 2005), pp. 231–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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Korosteleva, Elena, Lawson, Colin, and Marsh, Rosalind, eds. The best Russian-language source is Alexander Feduta, Lukashenka: Politicheskaya Biografiya [Lukashenka: Political Biography] (Moscow: Referendum, 2005)
Jekadumau, Andrei, “Aficyjnuja Vyniki Referendumu 1996 Hody i Dadzenyja Sacyjalahichnyh Dasledvanniau [Official Results of the 1996 Referendum and Sociological Survey Data],” in Belaruskaja Palitychnaja Systema i Prezydenckija Vybary 2001 [Belarusian Political System and 2001 Presidential Elections] (Warsaw: IDEE, 2001), p. 65Google Scholar
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  • Contagion Deterred
  • Edited by Valerie Bunce, Cornell University, New York, Michael McFaul, Stanford University, California, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Stanford University, California
  • Book: Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Postcommunist World
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804939.012
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  • Contagion Deterred
  • Edited by Valerie Bunce, Cornell University, New York, Michael McFaul, Stanford University, California, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Stanford University, California
  • Book: Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Postcommunist World
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804939.012
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Contagion Deterred
  • Edited by Valerie Bunce, Cornell University, New York, Michael McFaul, Stanford University, California, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Stanford University, California
  • Book: Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Postcommunist World
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804939.012
Available formats
×