Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-ttngx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-01T17:06:17.804Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

1 - Ambiguity aversion and the UK government’s response to swine flu

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2014

Adam Oliver
Affiliation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
Adam Oliver
Affiliation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
Get access

Summary

Introduction

In April 2009, an outbreak of the H1N1 swine flu virus captured the attention of the world. The UK government quickly claimed that the country was well prepared to respond to this potential global pandemic. Indeed, ever since (and even before) the 2002 H5N1 avian flu outbreak, the government had been laying the foundations for action. The Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, was deeply involved in the response, having himself published a 2002 policy document entitled Getting Ahead of the Curve: A Strategy for Combating Infectious Diseases (Department of Health, 2002), and in 2007 the government published A National Framework for Responding to an Influenza Pandemic (Cabinet Office/Department of Health, 2007). The Framework was geared towards a worst case scenario, and planned for between 55,500 and 750,000 fatalities. It said that there should be a stockpile of antiviral medications sufficient to treat 50 per cent of the population, and in the event of a pandemic, stated that the government should purchase sufficient vaccine to immunize everyone in the country and should establish a national pandemic flu service so that people can have antivirals authorized over the phone. The government’s response to the 2009 outbreak was directly informed by the Framework.

The initial response focused on containing the virus, principally so as to try to buy some time to better understand the virus before a treatment stage was initiated. Among the first people infected were schoolchildren, and the schools affected issued antiviral medications in many cases to all those in the same year as the infected pupil, and in some cases to the whole school. In several instances, schools closed for a week. On 29 April, two days after the first cases of swine flu were detected in the UK, the government announced plans to increase its stockpile of antivirals from levels sufficient to treat 50 per cent of the population to levels sufficient to treat 80 per cent, and people were advised to take these medications if they had come into contact with an infected person. Moreover, a mass public health media campaign was launched, and leaflets were sent to every household in the country advising on what swine flu is, and how to respond to it (e.g. to cover noses and mouths when sneezing and to undertake regular hand-washing, captured under the slogan, ‘Catch it. Bin it. Kill it’).

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2013

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ariely, D. (2008). Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Bernasconi, M. and Loomes, G. (1992). Failures of the Reduction Principle in an Ellsberg-Type Problem. Theory and Decision 32: 77–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cabinet Office/Department of Health (2007). A National Framework for Responding to an Influenza Pandemic. London: Department of Health.Google Scholar
Curley, S. P. and Yates, F. J. (1989). An Empirical Evaluation of Descriptive Models of Ambiguity Reactions in Choice Situations. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 33: 397–427.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Department of Health (2002). Getting Ahead of the Curve: A Strategy for Combating Infectious Diseases. London: Department of Health.Google Scholar
Einhorn, H. J. and Hogarth, R. M. (1986). Decision Making Under Ambiguity. Journal of Business 59: S225–S250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics 75: 643–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epstein, H. (2011). Flu Warning: Beware the Drug Companies! New York Review of Books, 11 May.
Ferguson, N. M., Cummings, D. A. T., Fraser, C., Cajka, J. C., Cooley, P. C. and Burke, D. S. (2006). Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic. Nature 442: 448–52.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Henry, C. (2006). Decision-Making Under Scientific, Political and Economic Uncertainty. Laboratoire d’Econométrie Cahier No. DDX-06-12. Paris: Ecole Polytechnique.Google Scholar
Henry, C. and Henry, M. (2002). Formalization and Applications of the Precautionary Principle. Laboratoire d’Econométrie Cahier No. 2002-008. Paris: Ecole Polytechnique.Google Scholar
Hine, D. (2010). An Independent Review of the UK Response to the 2009 Influenza Pandemic [Hine Review]. London: The Cabinet Office.Google Scholar
Holland Jones, J. and Salathe, M. (2009). Early Assessment of Anxiety and Behavioral Response to Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1). PLoS One 4: e8032.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klein, R. (2000). The Politics of Risk: The Case of BSE. BMJ 321: 1091–2.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Loomes, G. C. and Sugden, R. (1982). Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty. Economic Journal 92: 805–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Riordan, T. and Jordan, A. (1995). The Precautionary Principle in Contemporary Environmental Politics. Environmental Values 4: 191–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oxford, J., Lambkin-Williams, R. and Mann, A. (2007). The Threat of Avian Influenza H5N1: ‘do we have the tools for the job?’Antiviral Chemistry and Chemotherapy 18: 71–4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, N. (chairman) (2000). The BSE Inquiry Vol. 1: Findings and Conclusions [Phillips Report]. London: Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Rubin, G. J., Amlot, R., Page, L. and Wessely, S. (2009). Public Perceptions, Anxiety, and Behaviour Change in Relation to the Swine Flu Outbreak: Cross Sectional Telephone Survey. BMJ 339: b2651.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sunstein, C. R. (2005). Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The Guardian (2001). A catalogue of failures that discredits the whole system: there must be an inquiry into the foot and mouth saga. 16 May.
The Guardian 2010 (Swine) flu response was £1.2 billion well spent, review finds. 1 July.
The Independent (2010). WHO flu experts reject charges of business influence in pandemic. 15 April.
The Independent (2010). Governments accused of panicking over swine flu. 22 April.
The Independent (2010). A little knowledge: how research scientists were caught out by swine flu. 3 May.

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×