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Increasing resources are devoted to osteoarthritis surgical care in Australia annually, with significant expenditure attributed to hip and knee arthroplasties. Safe, efficient, and sustainable models of care are required. This study aimed to determine the impact on healthcare costs of implementing an enhanced short-stay model of care (ESS-MOC) for arthroplasty at a national level.
Methods
Budget impact analysis was conducted for hospitals providing arthroplasty surgery over the years 2023 to 2030. Population-based sample projections obtained from clinical registry and administrative datasets of individuals receiving hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis were applied. The ESS-MOC assigned 30 percent of eligible patients to a shortened acute-ward-stay pathway and outpatient rehabilitation. The remaining 70 percent received a current practice pathway. The primary outcome was total healthcare cost savings post-implementation of the ESS-MOC, with return on investment (ROI) ratio and hospital bed-days utilized also estimated. Costs are presented in Australian dollars (AUD) and United States dollars (USD), at 2023 prices.
Results
Estimated hospital cost savings for the years 2023 to 2030 from implementing the ESS-MOC were AUD641 million (USD427 million) (95% CI: AUD99 million [USD66 million] to AUD1,250 million) [USD834 million]). This corresponds to a ROI ratio of 8.88 (1.3 to 17.9) dollars returned for each dollar invested in implementing the care model. For the period 2023 to 2030, an estimated 337,000 (261,000 to 412,000) acute surgical ward bed-days, and 721,000 (471,000 to 1,028,000) rehabilitation bed-days could be saved. Total implementation costs for the ESS-MOC were estimated at AUD72 million (USD46 million) over eight years.
Conclusions
Implementation of an ESS-MOC for eligible arthroplasty patients in Australia would generate significant cost and healthcare resource savings. This budget impact analysis demonstrates a best practice approach to comprehensively assessing value, at a national level, of implementing sustainable models of care in high-burden healthcare contexts. Findings are relevant to other settings where hospital stay following joint arthroplasty remains excessively long.
A general procedure is provided for comparing correlation coefficients between optimal linear composites. The procedure allows computationally efficient significance tests on independent or dependent multiple correlations, partial correlations, and canonical correlations, with or without the assumption of multivariate normality. Evidence from some Monte Carlo studies on the effectiveness of the methods is also provided.
The issue of factor indeterminacy, and its meaning and significance for factor analysis, has been the subject of considerable debate in recent years. Interestingly, the identical issue was discussed widely in the literature of the late 1920's and early 1930's, but this early discussion was somehow lost or forgotten during the development and popularization of multiple factor analysis. There are strong parallels between the arguments in the early literature, and those which have appeared in recent papers. Here I review the history of this early literature, briefly survey the more recent work, and discuss these parallels where they are especially illuminating.
A theorem is presented which gives the range of possible correlations between a common factor and an external variable (i.e., a variable not included in the test battery factor analyzed). Analogous expressions for component (and regression component) theory are also derived. Some situations involving external correlations are then discussed which dramatize the theoretical differences between components and common factors.
The multivariate asymptotic distribution of sequential Chi-square test statistics is investigated. It is shown that: (a) when sequential Chi-square statistics are calculated for nested models on the same data, the statistics have an asymptotic intercorrelation which may be expressed in closed form, and which is, in many cases, quite high; and (b) sequential Chi-square difference tests are asymptotically independent. Some Monte Carlo evidence on the applicability of the theory is provided.
Cages for laboratory and pet hamsters are usually small. Using video recordings, the behaviour of sixty female golden hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus), housed individually in four different cage sizes, was compared in order to draw conclusions about their welfare. The cage sizes were 1,800 cm2, 2,500 cm2, 5,000 cm2, and 10,000 cm2. Enrichment items and litter depth were standardised and all cages were equipped with a running-wheel (30 cm diameter). Stereotypic wire-gnawing, usage of the provided space, weight gain, and reactions to mild husbandry stressors were used as welfare indicators. Stereotypic wire-gnawing was observed in all cage sizes, but hamsters in small cages gnawed significantly longer and more frequently. There were no significant differences in running-wheel activity. In small cages hamsters made use of the roof of their wooden shelters as an additional platform more often than in big cages, which could suggest that they needed more space. Therefore, the welfare of pet golden hamsters in cages with a minimal ground floor area of 10,000 cm2 seemed to be enhanced compared with smaller cages.
Forty-eight budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus) were pairwise housed in small (80 × 40 × 50 cm) and large (160 × 40 × 50 cm) (length × breadth × height) boxes, as well as in 2.0 × 1.0 × 2.0 m aviaries. All boxes and aviaries had two or three (aviaries) perches and food was offered on the bottom. The body masses of female budgerigars increased significantly when they were housed in boxes instead of aviaries. The size of the box did not influence body mass. The frequency of flying was adjusted to the size of the box as both males and females flew approximately twice as often from perch to perch in a small box than in a large box of double length. Flying behaviour differed significantly between large and small boxes and aviaries. The ratio of invariantly flying from perch to perch to all flying events increased from aviaries < large boxes < small boxes. About 75% of all flying events in small boxes consisted of flying from perch to perch. Females in boxes spent more time on the bottom where the food was placed than females in aviaries. Both the significant body mass gain in female budgerigars, as well as the invariant, stereotypic flying movements, indicated reduced welfare in budgerigars housed in boxes, compared with those in aviaries. Providing a large box did not prevent body mass gain, but did increase the variation in flying patterns. Under long-term housing conditions, boxes could lead to at least two serious welfare problems; obesity and stereotypic behaviour, and should be avoided for budgerigars. Therefore, aviary housing should be chosen wherever possible.
The decision to perform euthanasia in geriatric zoo mammals is usually a highly complex procedure involving ethical, medical, emotional and sometimes political factors. However, subsequent necropsies show that the pathological changes of organs and/or the musculoskeletal system are often already advanced. Therefore, we hypothesise that euthanasia is often delayed to the detriment of the animal's welfare. The purpose of this study was to facilitate and establish an initial, objective, decision-making framework for the euthanasia of geriatric zoo mammals. A scoring-system to assess the physical condition and quality of life in ageing zoo mammals is presented, based on retrospective and prospective investigation of 70 geriatric zoo mammals in five European zoos. Medical records and necropsy reports were studied in retrospective cases. Symptoms were monitored and recorded in prospective cases. Radiographic investigations under general anesthesia or at necropsy were performed additionally. A significant association between symptoms and pathological findings revealed that 36.9% (n = 24/65) of examined animals (n = 41/65) had pathological alterations to the musculoskeletal system and 26.2% (n = 17/65) suffered from neoplasia. Based on the individual reports, 28 veterinarians from different fields of veterinary medicine concluded that these animals had mild to severe pain, discomfort and a significantly reduced quality of life, thus strongly reducing welfare. The proposed scoring system includes all of these factors and offers a simple and reliable tool to support decision-making for euthanasia in geriatric zoo mammals.
Deficiency in contextual and enhanced responding in cued fear learning may contribute to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We examined the responses to aversive Pavlovian conditioning with an unpredictable spatial context as conditioned stimulus compared to a predictable context. We hypothesized that the PTSD group would demonstrate less hippocampal and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) activation during acquisition and extinction of unpredictable contexts and an over-reactive amygdala response in the predictable contexts compared to controls.
Methods
A novel combined differential cue-context conditioning paradigm was applied using virtual reality with spatial contexts that required configural and cue processing. We assessed 20 patients with PTSD, 21 healthy trauma-exposed (TC) and 22 non-trauma-exposed (HC) participants using functional magnetic resonance imaging, skin conductance responses, and self-report measures.
Results
During fear acquisition, patients with PTSD compared to TC showed lower activity in the hippocampi in the unpredictable and higher activity in the amygdalae in the predictable context. During fear extinction, TC compared to patients and HC showed higher brain activity in the vmPFC in the predictable context. There were no significant differences in self-report or skin conductance responses.
Conclusions
Our results suggest that patients with PTSD differ in brain activation from controls in regions such as the hippocampus, the amygdala, and the vmPFC in the processing of unpredictable and predictable contexts. Deficient encoding of more complex configurations might lead to a preponderance of cue-based predictions in PTSD. Exposure-based treatments need to focus on improving predictability of contextual processing and reducing enhanced cue reactivity.
To characterize bacterial infections and antibiotic utilization in hospitalized cancer patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Design:
Retrospective cohort study.
Setting:
Tertiary cancer center in New York City.
Patients:
Hospitalized cancer patients ≥18 years with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020.
Methods:
Patients were classified with mild COVID-19 (ie, with room air), moderate COVID-19 (ie, using nasal cannula oxygen), or severe COVID-19 (ie, using high-flow oxygen or mechanical ventilation). The primary outcome was bacterial infection rate within 30 days of COVID-19 onset. Secondary outcomes included the proportion of patients receiving antibiotics and antibiotic length of therapy (LOT).
Results:
Of 358 study patients, 133 had mild COVID-19, 97 had moderate COVID-19, and 128 had severe COVID-19. Of 358 patients, 234 (65%) had a solid tumor. Also, 200 patients (56%) had 245 bacterial infections, of which 67 (27%) were microbiologically confirmed. The proportion of patients with bacterial infection increased with COVID-19 severity: mild (n = 47, 35%) versus moderate (n = 49, 51%) versus severe (n = 104, 81%) (P < .0001). Also, 274 (77%) received antibiotics for a median of 4 days. The median antibiotic LOTs were 7 days with 1 infection and 20 days with multiple infections (P < .0001). Antibiotic durations were 1 day for patients with mild COVID-19, 4 days for patients with moderate COVID-19, and 8 days for patients with severe COVID-19 (P < .0001).
Conclusions:
Hospitalized cancer patients with COVID-19 had a high rate of bacterial infection. As COVID-19 severity increased, the proportion of patients diagnosed with bacterial infection and given antibiotics increased. In mild COVID-19 cases, antibiotic LOT was short, suggesting that empiric antibiotics can be safely avoided or discontinued in this group.
Introduction: Technological Advancement and Human Dignity
Given the rapid technological growth of artificial intelligence (AI) through advancements in machine learning, what was once thought impossible is quickly becoming a reality. It is no longer so far-fetched that humanlike machines will soon be a part of everyday life. People today are divided on whether these continued advancements in AI technologies will lead to the best of times or the worst of times for humankind. History continues to teach that a utopian or dystopian future is largely determined by a society's ability to identify and defend human dignity. Given AI's potential for dehumanization, if we are to avoid the mistakes of our past, our future will depend on people's ability to correctly see the difference between machines and humans.
By developing the work of Michael Polanyi and Alan Turing, the following chapter challenges reductionist perspectives in AI studies that are dehumanizing and explores an alternative foundation that can help navigate the technological future, while upholding the inherent dignity of being human. First (Section 1), a brief history of AI's ontological development is developed within Polanyi and Turing's interactions through tacit knowledge and the imitation game. Second (Section 2), it is demonstrated that Turing's imitation game, as expressed in strong AI, undermines the inherent nature of dignity in that it is intrinsically dehumanizing. Third (Section 3), Polanyi's machine ontology is developed as an alternative to the imitation game. Fourth (Section 4), Polanyi's non-reductive approach is contrasted with Turing's reductive approach to explore which best provides a foundation for the nature of human dignity.
Artificial Intelligence: Polanyi vs. Turing's Machine Ontology
For a time, Michael Polanyi and Alan Turing both worked at Manchester University in the United Kingdom. Polanyi was a scientist-turned-philosopher and Turing was a mathematician-turned-computer scientist. They both had a keen interest in AI studies and regularly discussed the philosophy of ‘intelligent machines’ (Hodges 2009, 13). Turing was focused on technological advancement, and Polanyi was concerned with the philosophies behind these advancements.
Navigators have been taught for centuries to estimate the location of their craft on a map from three lines of position, for redundancy. The three lines typically form a triangle, called a cocked hat. How is the location of the craft related to the triangle? For more than 80 years navigators have also been taught that, if each line of position is equally likely to pass to the right and to the left of the true location, then the likelihood that the craft is in the triangle is exactly 1/4. This is stated in numerous reputable sources, but was never stated or proved in a mathematically formal and rigorous fashion. In this paper we prove that the likelihood is indeed 1/4 if we assume that the lines of position always intersect pairwise. We also show that the result does not hold under weaker (and more reasonable) assumptions, and we prove a generalisation to $n$ lines.
Ghrelin showed antidepressant-like effects in mice. Furthermore, ghrelin influences sleep and the activity of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) and somatotropic axis in healthy humans as indicated by increased cortisol and growth hormone (GH) plasma levels. Both sleep and the activity of these endocrine axes are disturbed in depression.
Objective
To study the effect of ghrelin on psychopathology, sleep and secretion of cortisol and GH in patients with major depression.
Methods
Depressive symptoms as assessed by a validated self rating scale (’Befindlichkeits-Skala’, [well-being scale]), secretion profiles of cortisol and GH and sleep-EEGs were determined in 14 unmedicated patients with major depression (7 women) twice, receiving 50 μg ghrelin or placebo at 2200, 2300, 0000, and 0100 hours.
Results
Overall, depressive symptoms did not change significantly after ghrelin administration (placebo: 37 ± 8; ghrelin: 33 ± 10, p = 0.178). However, there was an improvement at trend level in men (placebo: 36 ± 9 to ghrelin: 30 ± 9, p = 0.093) but not in women. In men, ghrelin was associated with less time awake (placebo: 149.0 ± 11.1; ghrelin: 88.0±12.2 min, p = 0.029) and more non-REM sleep (placebo: 263.2 ± 24.1; ghrelin: 304.9 ± 14.1 min, p = 0.027), in women with less REM sleep (placebo: 108.6 ± 15.7; ghrelin: 74.1 ± 13.8 min, p = 0.031) and longer REM latency (placebo: 49.9 ± 6.5; ghrelin: 85.6 ± 14.1 min, p = 0.019). In both sexes, ghrelin caused strong transient increases of GH and cortisol.
Conclusion
Our study may provide an initial indication that ghrelin can exert antidepressant effects in patients with major depression. Ghrelin strongly affected sleep and secretion of GH and cortisol in a partly different way as previously reported in healthy subjects.
Sleep studies in patients with major depression receiving the new selective norepinephrine and serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SNRI) duloxetine are lacking.
Methods:
Polysomnography in 10 patients with major depression (7 males, 39.9 ± 7.6 years, HAMD-21 score: 23.6 ± 5.6) was recorded twice, before and after 7-14 days of treatment with duloxetine.
Results:
A significant (p < 0.01) increase from baseline to endpoint was found for amount of stage 3 sleep (21.0 ± 10.7 to 37.4 ± 20.1 minutes) and REM latency (58.5 ± 31.1 to 193.6 ± 72.6 minutes). Amount of REM sleep significantly (p < 0.01) decreased from 94.8 ± 34.5 to 51.5 ± 42.5 minutes.
Conclusions:
These results partly differ from those in healthy subjects receiving duloxetine.