A grid model was developed to combine small-scale grid resolution and long-term predictions of radionuclide dispersion in shallow seas. A predictor-corrector algorithm ensures an unconditional stability of the model. Four modules calculate the concentration of suspended sediments, the dispersion of radionuclides in the marine environment, and the doses to members of the public and marine biota. The model was applied to the dispersion of liquid effluent in the Irish Sea from the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant, Cumbria (UK). The concentration factors and partition coefficients have been calibrated for biota species and local conditions. The validation against environmental samples for twenty-two radionuclides shows a good agreement between predicted and measured values.

Despite contentious debates within the field of environmental security, findings of the principal research projects undertaken in the 1990s suggest significant agreement about the process linking environmental change to conflict. This article offers a reconsideration of the theoretical arguments unifying much of the research in environmental security, and argues that cases must extend their time frames considerably. The authors suggest that this would improve understanding of the social effects of environmental change, but is likely to revise mainstream arguments connecting environment and security in dramatic ways. By focusing on the often neglected role played by adaptive mechanisms, longer-range case studies tend not to support the claim that environmental stress is an urgent security issue, viewing it instead as an issue with long-term theoretical and policy relevance to those concerned not only with security, but also with sustainable development and environmental justice.