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We present a new methodology for estimating time-varying conditional skewness. Our model allows for changing means and variances, uses a maximum likelihood framework with instruments, and assumes a non-central t distribution. We apply this method to daily, weekly, and monthly stock returns, and find that conditional skewness is important. In particular, we show that the evidence of asymmetric variance is consistent with conditional skewness. Inclusion of conditional skewness also impacts the persistence in conditional variance.
Investigation of the geographical distribution of schizophrenia and its relationship to socio-demographic factors is useful for planning services.
Individuals with schizophrenia (n=980) were identified by key informants within an inner London borough and point prevalence calculated for broad, Feighner and DSM–III–R schizophrenia. The distribution of cases was tested for significant variation using the Poisson process model. Regression models using the Jarman-8 score and its component variables were tested for their ability to predict the prevalence of schizophrenia.
A high point prevalence of schizophrenia (5.3 per 1000 resident population) was demonstrated. Case distribution showed a marked and significant variation associated with socio-demographic factors. The prediction of prevalence was more accurate for broad than for narrower definitions of schizophrenia; unemployment rate performed best.
Unemployment rates and Jarman-8 scores may provide crude estimates for resource allocation in planning mental health services, highlighting the need for additional services in deprived inner city areas.
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