Women's vulnerability for a first lifetime-onset of major depressive disorder (MDD) during midlife is substantial. It is unclear whether risk factors differ for first lifetime-onset and recurrent MDD. Identifying these risk factors can provide more focused depression screening and earlier intervention. This study aims to evaluate whether lifetime psychiatric and health histories, personality traits, menopausal status and factors that vary over time, e.g. symptoms, are independent risk factors for first-onset or recurrent MDD across 13 annual follow-ups.

Four hundred and forty-three women, aged 42–52 years, enrolled in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation in Pittsburgh and participated in the Mental Health Study. Psychiatric interviews obtained information on lifetime psychiatric disorders at baseline and on occurrences of MDD episodes annually. Psychosocial and health-related data were collected annually. Cox multivariable analyses were conducted separately for women with and without a MDD history at baseline.

Women without lifetime MDD at baseline had a lower risk of developing MDD during midlife than those with a prior MDD history (28% v. 59%) and their risk profiles differed. Health conditions prior to baseline and during follow-ups perception of functioning (ps < 0.05) and vasomotor symptoms (VMS) (p = 0.08) were risk factors for first lifetime-onset MDD. Being peri- and post-menopausal, psychological symptoms and a prior anxiety disorder were predominant risk factors for MDD recurrence.

The menopausal transition warrants attention as a period of vulnerability to MDD recurrence, while health factors and VMS should be considered important risk factors for first lifetime-onset of MDD during midlife.

In women, anxiety symptoms are common and increase during midlife, but little is known about whether these symptoms predict onsets of major depressive disorder (MDD) episodes. We examined whether anxiety symptoms are associated with subsequent episodes of MDD in midlife African-American and Caucasian women, and whether they confer a different risk for first versus recurrent MDD episodes.

A longitudinal analysis was conducted using 12 years of data from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Mental Health Study (MHS). The baseline sample comprised 425 Caucasian (n = 278) and African American (n = 147) community-dwelling women, aged 46.1 ± 2.5 years. Anxiety symptoms measured annually using a self-report questionnaire were examined in relation to MDD episodes in the subsequent year, assessed with the SCID. Multivariable models were estimated with random effects logistic regression.

Higher anxiety symptoms scores were associated with a significantly higher adjusted odds of developing an episode of MDD at the subsequent annual visit [odds ratio (OR) 1.47, p = 0.01], specifically for a recurrent episode (OR 1.49, p = 0.03) but non-significant for a first episode (OR 1.32, p = 0.27). There were no significant racial effects in the association between anxiety symptoms and subsequent MDD episodes.

Anxiety symptoms often precede MDD and may increase the vulnerability of midlife women to depressive episodes, particularly recurrences. Women with anxiety symptoms should be monitored clinically during the ensuing year for the development of an MDD episode.

It is unclear whether risk for major depression during the menopausal transition or immediately thereafter is increased relative to pre-menopause. We aimed to examine whether the odds of experiencing major depression were greater when women were peri- or post-menopausal compared to when they were pre-menopausal, independent of a history of major depression at study entry and annual measures of vasomotor symptoms (VMS), serum levels of, or changes in, estradiol (E2), follicular stimulating hormone (FSH) or testosterone (T) and relevant confounders.

Participants included the 221 African American and Caucasian women, aged 42–52 years, who were pre-menopausal at entry into the Pittsburgh site of a community-based study of menopause, the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN). We conducted the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID) to assess diagnoses of lifetime, annual and current major depression at baseline and at annual follow-ups. Psychosocial and health factors, and blood samples for assay of reproductive hormones, were obtained annually.

Women were two to four times more likely to experience a major depressive episode (MDE) when they were peri-menopausal or early post-menopausal. Repeated-measures logistic regression analyses showed that the effect of menopausal status was independent of history of major depression and annually measured upsetting life events, psychotropic medication use, VMS and serum levels of or changes in reproductive hormones. History of major depression was a strong predictor of major depression throughout the study.

The risk of major depression is greater for women during and immediately after the menopausal transition than when they are pre-menopausal.

Little is known about factors that predict first lifetime episodes of major depression in middle-aged women. It is not known whether health-related factors and life stress pose more or less of a risk to the onset of clinical depression than does the menopausal transition.

The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID) was used to assess diagnoses of lifetime, annual and current major depression in a community-based sample of premenopausal or early perimenopausal African American and White women. Menstrual cycle characteristics, psychosocial and health-related factors, and blood samples for assay of reproductive hormones were obtained annually. Two hundred and sixty-six women without a history of major depression at baseline constituted the cohort for the current analyses.

Over 7 years of follow-up, 42 (15.8%) women met criteria for a diagnosis of major depression. Frequent vasomotor symptoms (VMS; hot flashes and/or night sweats) (HR 2.14, p=0.03) were a significant predictor of major depression in univariate analyses. After simultaneous adjustment for multiple predictors in Cox proportional hazards analyses, frequent VMS were no longer significant; lifetime history of an anxiety disorder (HR 2.20, p=0.02) and role limitations due to physical health (HR 1.88, p=0.07) at baseline and a very stressful life event (HR 2.25, p=0.04) prior to depression onset predicted a first episode of major depression.

Both earlier (e.g. history of anxiety disorders) and more proximal factors (e.g. life stress) may be more important than VMS in contributing to a first episode of major depression during midlife.