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We live in a time of significant global risk. Some research has focused on understanding systemic sources of this risk, while other research has focused on possible worst-case outcomes. In this article, we bring together these two areas of research and provide a simple conceptual framework that shows how emergent features of the global system contribute to the risk of global catastrophe.
Technical summary
Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand of research characterises how risk emerges within the complex global system, using concepts like systemic risk, Anthropocene risk, synchronous failure, negative social tipping points, and polycrisis. Another focuses on possible worst-case outcomes, using concepts like global catastrophic risk (GCR), existential risk, and extinction risk. Despite their clear relevance to each other, connections between these two strands remain limited. Here, we provide a simple conceptual framework that synthesises these research strands and shows how emergent properties of the global system contribute to the risk of global catastrophic outcomes. In particular, we show that much of GCR stems from the interaction of hazards and vulnerabilities that arise endogenously within the global system, and how ‘systems thinking’ and complex adaptive systems theory can help illuminate this. We also highlight some unique challenges that systemic sources of GCR pose for risk assessment and mitigation, discuss insights for policy, and outline potential paths forward.
Social media summary
The global system is generating global catastrophic risk.
The number of people affected by at least one chronic disease is increasing worldwide, with poorer health-related quality of life (HRQOL) being a major consequence(1). HRQOL is an important measure for quantifying and evaluating the impacts of a disease or intervention on self-perceived wellbeing. Anti-inflammatory diets are consistently associated with improvements in disease-specific outcomes(2,3), but their effect on HRQOL is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the effectiveness of anti-inflammatory dietary interventions on HRQOL in adults with one or more chronic diseases. Five databases were searched from inception to May 2024 for randomised controlled trials evaluating the impact of an anti-inflammatory diet (e.g., Mediterranean, low-carbohydrate) on HRQOL. Screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment using the Cochrane Risk of Bias v2.0 tool were performed independently by two authors. Certainty of evidence was determined using the GRADE approach. Pooled effect sizes for HRQOL, separated into mental (MCS) physical (PCS) and general component scores (GCS) were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses and reported as standardised mean difference (SMD). Subgroup analyses and meta-regressions were performed to assess the influence of study-level characteristics on HRQOL outcomes. Twenty-three studies reporting HRQOL data for 2753 participants were included. The most common chronic diseases evaluated were type 2 diabetes (8 studies, 35%), musculoskeletal conditions (5 studies, 22%), and cardiovascular conditions (3 studies, 13%). Anti-inflammatory dietary interventions evaluated included the Mediterranean diet (14 studies, 61%), low-carbohydrate diets (8 studies, 35%), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (1 study, 4%) and low-sugar, low-yeast diet (1 study, 4%). Anti-inflammatory diets were associated with small improvements in PCS compared to usual care/non-anti-inflammatory dietary interventions such as national dietary guidelines and low-fat diets (SMD 0.22, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.38) but not MCS (SMD 0.10, 95% CI −0.02 to 0.23) or GCS (SMD 0.40, 95% CI −0.32 to 1.13). Assessment by study-level characteristics revealed that studies with a higher risk of bias reported a larger effect on PCS, and diet-only interventions (compared to multi-component interventions) had a greater effect on MCS. No study met the Cochrane criteria for low risk of bias, and certainty of evidence was low (PCS and MCS) to very low (GCS). This systematic review suggests that anti-inflammatory diets may lead to a small improvement in physical HRQOL, but not mental or general HRQOL. The low certainty of evidence calls for further high-quality RCTs with detailed descriptions of dietary interventions in individuals with one or more chronic diseases.
Gait, balance, and cognitive impairment make travel cumbersome for People with Parkinson’s disease (PwPD). About 75% of PwPD cared for at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ Movement Disorders Clinic reside in medically underserved areas (MUAs). Validated remote evaluations could help improve their access to care. Our goal was to explore the feasibility of telemedicine research visits for the evaluation of multi-modal function in PwPD in a rural state.
Methods:
In-home telemedicine research visits were performed in PwPD. Motor and non-motor disease features were evaluated and quantified by trained personnel, digital survey instruments for self-assessments, digital voice recordings, and scanned and digitized Archimedes spiral drawings. Participant’s MUA residence was determined after evaluations were completed.
Results:
Twenty of the fifty PwPD enrolled resided in MUAs. The groups were well matched for disease duration, modified motor UPDRS, and Montreal Cognitive assessment scores but MUA participants were younger. Ninety-two percent were satisfied with their visit, and 61% were more likely to participate in future telemedicine research. MUA participants traveled longer distances, with higher travel costs, lower income, and education level. While 50% of MUA participants reported self-reliance for in-person visits, 85% reported self-reliance for the telemedicine visit. We rated audio-video quality highly in approximately 60% of visits in both groups. There was good correlation with prior in-person research assessments in a subset of participants.
Conclusions:
In-home research visits for PwPD in MUAs are feasible and could help improve access to care and research participation in these traditionally underrepresented populations.
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS), like many rural states, faces clinical and research obstacles to which digital innovation is seen as a promising solution. To implement digital technology, a mobile health interest group was established to lay the foundation for an enterprise-wide digital health innovation platform. To create a foundation, an interprofessional team was established, and a series of formal networking events was conducted. Three online digital health training models were developed, and a full-day regional conference was held featuring nationally recognized speakers and panel discussions with clinicians, researchers, and patient advocates involved in digital health programs at UAMS. Finally, an institution-wide survey exploring the interest in and knowledge of digital health technologies was distributed. The networking events averaged 35–45 attendees. About 100 individuals attended the regional conference with positive feedback from participants. To evaluate mHealth knowledge at the institution, a survey was completed by 257 UAMS clinicians, researchers, and staff. It revealed that there are opportunities to increase training, communication, and collaboration for digital health implementation. The inclusion of the mobile health working group in the newly formed Institute for Digital Health and Innovation provides a nexus for healthcare providers and researches to facilitate translational research.
We present a broad study of linear, clustered, noble gas puffs irradiated with the frequency doubled (527 nm) Titan laser at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Pure Ar, Kr, and Xe clustered gas puffs, as well as two mixed-gas puffs consisting of KrAr and XeKrAr gases, make up the targets. Characterization experiments to determine gas-puff density show that varying the experimental parameter gas-delay timing (the delay between gas puff initialization and laser-gas-puff interaction) provides a simple control over the gas-puff density. X-ray emission (>1.4 keV) is studied as a function of gas composition, density, and delay timing. Xe gas puffs produce the strongest peak radiation in the several keV spectral region. The emitted radiation was found to be anisotropic, with smaller X-ray flux observed in the direction perpendicular to both laser beam propagation and polarization directions. The degree of anisotropy is independent of gas target type but increases with photon energy. X-ray spectroscopic measurements estimate plasma parameters and highlight their difference with previous studies. Electron beams with energy in excess of 72 keV are present in the noble gas-puff plasmas and results indicate that Ar plays a key role in their production. A drastic increase in harder X-ray emissions (X-ray flash effect) and multi-MeV electron-beam generation from Xe gas-puff plasma occurred when the laser beam was focused on the front edge of the linear gas puff.
Temporary excavations during the construction of the Glendoe Hydro Scheme above Loch Ness in the Highlands of Scotland exposed a clay-rich fault gouge in Dalradian Supergroup psammite. The gouge coincides with the mapped trace of the subvertical Sronlairig Fault, a feature related in part to the Great Glen and Ericht–Laidon faults, which had been interpreted to result from brittle deformation during the Caledonian orogeny (c. 420–390 Ma). Exposure of this mica-rich gouge represented an exceptional opportunity to constrain the timing of the gouge-producing movement on the Sronlairig Fault using isotopic analysis to date the growth of authigenic (essentially synkinematic) clay mineralization. A series of fine-size separates was isolated prior to K–Ar analysis. Novel, capillary-encapsulated X-ray diffraction analysis was employed to ensure nearly perfect, random orientation and to facilitate the identification and quantification of mica polytypes. Coarser size fractions are composed of greater proportions of the 2M1 illite polytype. Finer size fractions show increasing proportions of the 1M illite polytype, with no evidence of 2M1 illite in the finest fractions. A series of Illite Age Analysis plots produced excellent R2 values with calculated mean ages of 296 ± 7 Ma (Late Carboniferous–Early Permian) for the oldest (2M1) illite and 145 ± 7 Ma (Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous) for the youngest (1M) illite. The Late Carboniferous–Early Permian (Faulting event 1) age may represent resetting of earlier-formed micas or authigenesis during dextral displacement of the Great Glen Fault Zone (GGFZ). Contemporaneous WNW(NW)–ESE(SE) extension was important for basin development and hydrocarbon migration in the Pentland Firth and Moray Firth regions. The Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous (Faulting event 2) age corresponds with Moray Firth Basin development and indicates that the GGFZ and related structures may have acted to partition the active extension in the Moray Firth region from relative inactivity in the Pentland Firth area at this time. These new age dates demonstrate the long-lived geological activity on the GGFZ, particularly so in post-Caledonian times where other isotopic evidence for younger tectonic overprints is lacking.
We study the behaviour of the dynamical and stellar mass inside the effective radius as function of local density for early-type galaxies (ETGs). We use several samples of ETGs - ranging from 19000 to 98000 objects - from the ninth data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We consider Newtonian dynamics, different light profiles and different initial mass functions (IMF) to calculate the dynamical and stellar mass. We assume that any difference between these two masses is due to dark matter and/or a non-universal IMF. The main results are: (i) the amount of dark matter (DM) inside ETGs depends on the environment; (ii) ETGs in low-density environments span a wider DM range than ETGs in dense environments; (iii) the amount of DM inside ETGs in the most dense environments will be less than approximately 55-65 per cent of the dynamical mass; (iv) the accurate value of this upper limit depends on the impact of the IMF on the stellar mass estimation.
Few studies have investigated the patterns of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom change in prolonged exposure (PE) therapy. In this study, we aimed to understand the patterns of PTSD symptom change in both PE and present-centered therapy (PCT).
Methods
Participants were active duty military personnel (N = 326, 89.3% male, 61.2% white, 32.5 years old) randomized to spaced-PE (S-PE; 10 sessions over 8 weeks), PCT (10 sessions over 8 weeks), or massed-PE (M-PE; 10 sessions over 2 weeks). Using latent profile analysis, we determined the optimal number of PTSD symptom change classes over time and analyzed whether baseline and follow-up variables were associated with class membership.
Results
Five classes, namely rapid responder (7–17%), steep linear responder (14–22%), gradual responder (30–34%), non-responder (27–33%), and symptom exacerbation (7–13%) classes, characterized each treatment. No baseline clinical characteristics predicted class membership for S-PE and M-PE; in PCT, more negative baseline trauma cognitions predicted membership in the non-responder v. gradual responder class. Class membership was robustly associated with PTSD, trauma cognitions, and depression up to 6 months after treatment for both S-PE and M-PE but not for PCT.
Conclusions
Distinct profiles of treatment response emerged that were similar across interventions. By and large, no baseline variables predicted responder class. Responder status was a strong predictor of future symptom severity for PE, whereas response to PCT was not as strongly associated with future symptoms.
Bentonite is one of the more safety-critical components of the engineered barrier system in the disposal concepts developed for many types of radioactive waste. It is used due to its favourable properties (including plasticity, swelling capacity, colloid filtration, low hydraulic conductivity, high retardation of key radionuclides) and its stability in relevant geological environments. However, bentonite is unstable under alkaline conditions and this has driven interest in low-alkali cements (leachate pH of 10–11). To build a robust safety case, it is important to have supporting natural analogue data to confirm understanding of the likely long-term performance of bentonite. In Cyprus, the presence of natural bentonite in close proximity to natural alkaline groundwaters permits the zones of potential bentonite/alkaline water reaction to be studied as an analogy of the potential reaction zones in the repository. Here, the results indicate minimal volumetric reaction of bentonite, with production of a palygorskite secondary phase.
The clay mineral assemblages and microtextures of a suite of mudrocks from the Lias Group of England and Wales indicate important regional differences in burial history.
Samples from the northern Cleveland Basin are characterized by illite-smectite (I-S, 90% illite) and little carbonate whilst samples from the southern Worcester and Wessex basins contain less mature discrete smectite and are often calcite- and dolomite-rich. Lias Group rocks have been buried to 4 km in the Cleveland Basin but to <2 km in the Worcester and Wessex basins. Burial in the Cleveland Basin is deeper than previously estimated and does not need a local heating event. Illite- smectite (80% illite) detected in samples from the East Midlands Shelf suggests burial to 3 km, again deeper than previous estimates for this region.
The Lòn Ostatoin stream section, Trotternish Peninsula, Isle of Skye, exposes a sequence of Middle Jurassic mudstones and limestones which have been locally metasomatized by a transgressive sill of Tertiary age. Limestones in the sequence, including some previously reported as bentonite, have been altered to an unusual assemblage of grossular garnet and saponite clay. The mudstones also contain large proportions of saponite together with pyroxene and zeolites. Saponite also occurs within the basalt intrusion. Grossular and pyroxene represent artifacts of relatively high-temperature assemblages that formed during an early phase of alteration. As the intrusion and adjacent altered country rocks cooled, lower-temperature fluids flowed through a late set of contraction (micro)fractures. Back-reacted saponite, analcime and clinoptilolite were formed, possibly as alteration products of the unstable higher-temperature minerals. The lower-temperature mineral assemblage eventually sealed the late fracture system.
This paper highlights an important concept for the study of analogue sites used to investigate thermal effects on engineered liners or barrier host rocks for the landfill and radioactive-waste industries. This is that the original thermally altered mineral assemblage may be overprinted by later, lower-temperature back-reactions. A detailed understanding of both processes is necessary in order to construct a sensible model for the thermal and mineralogical evolution of the site.
Grain-coating chlorite cements commonly occur within sandstones of late Middle and Upper Miocene age deposited in the North Sumatra back-arc basin. Chlorites from the Lower Keutapang Member contain Ca (maximum 0.75 wt% oxide) and show textural evidence for direct precipitation on grains. However, crystals are subhedral, showing curved faces and often ragged edges, and show a tendency to merge together. In overlying beds of the Upper Keutapang Member, grain-coating chlorite-smectite (20% smectite) cements display an identical morphology but are more siliceous, have a lower octahedral occupancy and contain higher total (Na + Ca + K). It is proposed that chlorite cements in the Keutapang Formation originated as smectite-rich cement rims whose initial precipitation was related to the breakdown of volcanic detritus in the sediments. Transformation to chlorite occurred subsequently during burial, facilitated by a high geothermal gradient in the back-arc basin.
Previous studies of low-grade metamorphism in the Southern Uplands accretionary terrain indicated prehnite-pumpellyite facies/anchizone conditions developed throughout the area, except for local preservation of trench-slope sediments and an accreted seamount at zeolite facies/advanced diagenetic grade. New graptolite reflectance data are presented that show a general northward increase in temperature in the Southern Uplands. The results from two cross-strike traverses in the southern and central belts in contemporaneous sequences, using illite crystallinity, illite lateral spacing (bo) , and graptolite reflectance, indicate the development of systematic accretion-related low-grade metamorphism. Well-developed and constant anchizone conditions occur throughout the NE (Langholm) traverse, associated with common, F1 accretion-related folding and a regionally penetrative S1 cleavage. In the SW (Kirkcudbright) traverse, however, the youngest, last accreted packets are preserved at a transitional diagenetic stage and lack a penetrative S1 cleavage. Illite crystallinity, graptolite reflectance, and bo increase systematically northward through earlier accreted packets, reaching values of the NE traverse only at the northern end. The concomitant increase of bo with illite crystallinity suggests the relatively high P-low T trajectory characteristic of subduction zones. Integration of metamorphic and structural data relates increasing intensity of aceretion-related F1 folding, developmertt of S1 fabric, and onset of later fold phases to grade of metamorphism and structural level within the accretionary pile.
Uraniferous particles from contaminated environmental samples were analysed by scanning electronmicroscopy with energy dispersive X-ray analysis (SEM-EDXA) and microfocus extended X-rayabsorption fine structure (mEXAFS) spectroscopy. The particles of interest are uranium oxides, whichwere released into the environment by the combustion of scrap depleted uranium (DU) metal at afactory in Colonie, New York, USA. Most of the identified particles appear to have primary, ‘asemitted’ morphologies; some have evidence of minor dissolution, including corrosion pitting.Polycrystalline and often hollow microscopic spheres were identified, which are similar to particlesproduced by DU munitions impacting armoured targets. They are attributed to the autothermicoxidation of melt droplets. The compositions of the analysed spheres are dominated by UO2+x withvariable amounts of U3O8, two of the least soluble and least bioaccessible phases of U. These particles,collected from dusts and soils, have survived more than 25 y in the terrestrial environment. This studyfurther supports the case for using Colonie as an analogue for battlefield DU contamination.
Brinrobertsite, an ordered, mixed-layered, dioctahedral pyrophyllite-smectite (P/S), occurs in a metabentonite in the Ordovician Nant Ffrancon Formation near Bangor, N Wales. It comprises ~30% of the metabentonite, in association with quartz (~50%) and chlorite (clinochlore; 20%) which replaced glass shards and fine-grained glass matrix. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images show sequences of dominant ~24 Å 001 lattice fringes inferred to correspond to 2:1 layers with alternate pyrophyllite-like (low-charge) and smectite-like (higher-charge) interlayers (i.e. R1 ordering). The hk0 diffraction patterns are mostly hexanets with some spotty circles, implying that layers are largely coherently related, but with some turbostratic stacking. Collective data show that d100 = 5.2, b = 9.1, and d001 = 24–25 Å, assuming monoclinic or pseudomonoclinic symmetry. The composition, as determined by energy dispersive spectral analysis, is (Na0.22K0.07Ca0.06)(Al3.81Mg0.08Fe0.08)(Si7.84 Al0.16)O20(OH)4·3.54H2O, as consistent with the sum of the compositions of pyrophyllite-like and smectite-like units. Water content was determined by DTA/TGA analysis. The powder diffraction patterns have a principal peak with d001 = 24.4 Å. Patterns of air-dried and glycol-saturated brinrobertsite, including Na- and Ca-saturated and untreated samples, were modelled satisfactorily as R1-ordered P/S by the program NEWMOD-for-Windows. The unique composition of brinrobertsite relative to R1 IS, which is ubiquitous in metabentonites, was caused by leaching of alkalis and alkaline-earth elements by hydrothermal fluids associated perhaps with a nearby intrusion, as demonstrated by bulk-chemical analyses of the metabentonite. The crystal structure is modelled as having Al/Si distributions symmetrical by reflection across interlayers. This causes all 2:1 layers to be equivalent in having one tetrahedral sheet with little or no Al, and the other with significant Al substitution, giving rise to alternate high- and low-charge interlayers. Geological evidence suggests that brinrobertsite is a back-reacted product of hydrothermal alteration in the sequence: glass → pyrophyllite → brinrobertsite.
The Cyprus Natural Analogue Project was carried out due to the requirement to support ongoing laboratory and modelling efforts on the potential reaction of the bentonite buffer with cementitious leachates in the repository engineered barrier system. Although it is known that the higher pH (12.5–13) leachates from ordinary Portland cement will degrade bentonite, it is unclear if this will also be the case for the lower pH (10–11) leachates typical of low alkali cements. Ongoing laboratory and underground rock laboratory programmes, which are currently investigating this, face the obstacle of slow kinetics and the production of short-lived metastable phases, meaning obtaining unambiguous results may take decades. It was therefore decided to implement a focussed natural analogue study on bentonite/low alkali cement leachate reactions to provide indications of the probable long-term reaction products and reaction pathways to provide feedback on the existing short-term investigations noted above and to ascertain if any critical path research and development needs to be instigated now. The results of the analyses presented here, in this short overview of the project, suggest that there has been very limited alkaline groundwater reaction with the bentonite. This is generally supported by both the geomorphological evidence and the natural decay series data which imply groundwater/rock interaction in the last 105 a.
Cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging and spectroscopy, as well as backscattered electron imaging, were used to assign the occurrence of several mineral phases and rock structures in altered nordmarkites and calcite-bearing granites from the Nb-Zr-REE deposits from Khaldzan Buregte and Tsakhir (Mongolian Altai) to three events: (1) intrusion of barren nordmarkites; (2) intrusion of small bodies of calcite-bearing granites with metasomatic alteration of the wall-rocks; and (3) alteration by F-rich fluids.
Unusual red and yellow CL caused by Fe3+ and Mn2+ emission centres were detected in microcline and albite. Fe3+ centres were also established (along with others) in quartz, zircon, and possibly in fluorite.
Magmatic and metasomatic rock structures and internal structures of the minerals coexist in the samples. The primary magmatic features were in part preserved during alteration. In contrast, the internal and the centre structures may be changed during alteration even in non-replaced mineral phases. Euhedral minerals may be formed by secondary processes as shown for lath-shaped albite. The occurrence of pseudomorphs, the inheritance of elements during replacement, and the mechanical effects of secondary minerals on earlier mineral phases during metasomatic growth are proposed as criteria for the reconstruction of the mineral succession in altered rocks. Snowball structures may be formed as a result of metasomatic alteration rather than as a magmatic intergrowth.
Unusual speleothems, associated with hyperalkaline (pH > 12) groundwaters have formed within a shallow, abandoned railway tunnel at Peak Dale, Derbyshire, UK. The hyperalkaline groundwaters are produced by the leaching of a thin layer (<2 m) of old lime-kiln waste on the soil-bedrock surface above the tunnel by rainwater. This results in a different reaction and chemical process to that more commonly associated with the formation of calcium carbonate speleothems from Ca-HCO3-type groundwaters and degassing of CO2. Stalagmites within the Peak Daletunnel have grown rapidly (averaging 33 mm y–1), following the closure of the tunnel 70 years ago. They have an unusual morphology comprising a central sub-horizontally-laminated column of micro- to nano-crystalline calcium carbonate encompassed by an outer sub-vertical assymetricripple-laminated layer. The stalagmites are composed largely of secondary calcite forming pseudomorphs (<1 mm) that we believe to be predominantly after the 'cold climate' calcium carbonate polymorph, ikaite (calcium carbonate hexahydrate: CaCO3·6H2O), withminor volumes of small (<5 μm) pseudomorphs after vaterite. The tunnel has a near constant temperature of 8–9°C, which is slightly above the previously published crystallization temperatures for ikaite (<6°C). Analysis of a stalagmite actively growing at the time ofsampling, and preserved immediately within a dry nitrogen cryogenic vessel, indicates that following crystallization of ikaite, decomposition to calcite occurs rapidly, if not instantaneously. We believe this is the first occurrence of this calcium carbonate polymorph observed within speleothems.