We study the enumerativity of Gromov–Witten invariants where the domain curve is fixed in moduli and required to pass through the maximum possible number of points. We say a Fano manifold satisfies asymptotic enumerativity if such invariants are enumerative whenever the degree of the curve is sufficiently large. Lian and Pandharipande speculate that every Fano manifold satisfies asymptotic enumerativity. We give the first counterexamples, as well as some new examples where asymptotic enumerativity holds. The negative examples include special hypersurfaces of low Fano index and certain projective bundles, and the new positive examples include many Fano threefolds and all smooth hypersurfaces of degree $d \leq (n+3)/3$ in ${\mathbb P}^n$.

We conjecture that the exceptional set in Manin's conjecture has an explicit geometric description. Our proposal includes the rational point contributions from any generically finite map with larger geometric invariants. We prove that this set is contained in a thin subset of rational points, verifying that there is no counterexample to Manin's conjecture which arises from an incompatibility of geometric invariants.

Let $X$ be a smooth projective Fano variety over the complex numbers. We study the moduli space of rational curves on $X$ using the perspective of Manin’s conjecture. In particular, we bound the dimension and number of components of spaces of rational curves on $X$. We propose a geometric Manin’s conjecture predicting the growth rate of a counting function associated to the irreducible components of these moduli spaces.

We consider the problem of counting the number of rational points of bounded height in the zero-loci of Brauer group elements on semi-simple algebraic groups over number fields. We obtain asymptotic formulae for the counting problem for wonderful compactifications using the spectral theory of automorphic forms. Applications include asymptotic formulae for the number of matrices over $\mathbb{Q}$ whose determinant is a sum of two squares. These results provide a positive answer to some cases of a question of Serre concerning such counting problems.