Epidemiological and economic (Epi-econ) models account for endogenous interactions between the epidemic and the economy. We explore the applicability of an Epi-econ model to isolate the effects of lockdown policies during coronavirus disease 2019 in the Netherlands. To this aim, we recalibrate the seminal Epi-econ model of Eichenbaum and colleagues with updated parameters specific to the Dutch context. We find that the model performs poorly in replicating observed Epi-econ trends under baseline assumptions. Next, we explore possibilities to improve model fit by relaxing policy and transmission parameters, and by incorporating observed “random noise” in infectivity parameters. This approach spectacularly improves model performance in replicating observed trends. Finally, we test the performance of the model in simulating alternative policy scenarios. We use the Containment and Health Index from the Blavatnik School of Government to replace Dutch policy parameters with exemplary countries on opposite sides of the stringency spectrum. We find that a more stringent lockdown policy would reduce peak prevalence, while aggravating peak economic contraction, but with little effect on overall trends. Conversely, a more lenient lockdown policy was estimated to increase the peak and overall prevalence, with little effect on economic outcomes. We conclude that while rigorous adjustments to existing models were required, a combined Epi-econ model could be informative to policymakers in assessing alternative lockdown policy options.

Real estate is a major component of China’s national wealth, serving as a key store of value. Property taxes potentially influence households’ belief in the stability of the housing market, resulting in varying effects of such taxes. This paper constructs an equilibrium model of stores of value to examine these effects under diverse beliefs. The results show that property taxes can constrain the growth of housing prices if households maintain their belief in the future stability of housing values. However, damaging this belief would lead to a safety trap with a decline in output. The paper also demonstrates that using tax revenue to finance government bond issuance can be an effective way to lower housing prices and increase output.

Mainstream economists give the misleading impression that their argument for austerity is purely technical and indeed the most ‘scientific’. The argument developed here is that their reasoning is not, any more than that of their heterodox critics, independent of ideology, power and ethics. The widespread belief in austerity policies as scientifically justified has prevented arguments against austerity gaining more traction; issues of ideology, power and ethics need to be brought to the fore as part of the arguments on both sides. In other words, awareness of the epistemological issues arising from an open-system ontology is critical to understanding the crisis and the policy response, and therefore to challenging that understanding and encouraging a radical policy shift. The critique of austerity policies would therefore be strengthened by a critique of the mainstream’s rhetorical (mis)representation of economic theorising.

El objetivo de este trabajo es cuantificar la relación negativa entre actividad económica y la contención de la COVID-19 mediante la implementación de intervenciones no farmacéuticas en Paraguay. Para esto, calibramos el modelo desarrollado por Eichenbaum, Rebelo y Trabandt con datos de Paraguay. Utilizamos el modelo para simular la trayectoria de la actividad económica, dados distintos escenarios de infección. Consideramos tres casos de estudio. En el primero, consideramos una flexibilización de las medidas de intervención no farmacéuticas aún vigentes. En el segundo, estudiamos el impacto económico de contener una aceleración de la infección. En el tercer caso, analizamos una reducción de la infección y su efecto en la economía. Mediante el estudio de estos casos obtenemos una aproximación del costo económico de contener la infección.

Dans cet article, je met en cause l’allégation de Duménil et Lévy selon laquelle l’« approche classique » offrirait une alternative au cadre conceptuel d’Arrow-Debreu en théorie micro-économique. Plus spécifiquement, l’argumentation développée dans cet article est à l’effet que les deux propositions principales de l’approche classique — l’égalité des taux de profits d’équilibre et l’indépendance des prix d’équilibre par rapport aux demandes des ménages — sont, respectivement, une caractéristique indissociable de l’équilibre général du modèle Arrow-Debreu et un cas particulier de ce cadre conceptuel. En outre, je soutiens la thèse que les modèles de déséquilibres de Duménil et Lévy sont ad hoc et, pour cette raison, sont incapables de fournir des fondements micro-économiques à la modélisation du comportement hors-équilibre du système économique.