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The future will see a perpetuation of the present coexistence of unbalanced bipolarity, polycentrism, and emergent regional multipolarity. As in the past, twenty-first-century world politics will be chiefly defined by competition among the powerful. Asia is the only region where the world’s heaviest hitters come into steady and direct contact with one another. As such, it presents the maximum risk for major-power war. Most critical is the direction of the U.S.–China relationship, and this, in turn, will be significantly affected by China’s power trajectory. More broadly, geoeconomic competition and status challenges will be persistent features of international politics, as established and emerging powers try to keep up with changes in relative power and technology. The disintegration of power and principle will also continue apace, impeded by the fact that internationalist principles and institutions are themselves deeply heterogenous. Nevertheless, the future should be bright, presenting only a moderate-to-low risk of conflict. States can best navigate future risks and dangers by muddling through rather than straight-jacketing themselves by means of a grand strategy.
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