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This chapter introduces a new framework for understanding US–China rivalry through the concepts of economic weight and displacement. It argues that China has economically displaced the US in much of Latin America by becoming an alternative provider of goods and services, despite not surpassing the US globally. The author develops a theory emphasizing the role of local agency in target countries in shaping this process. Economic displacement is presented as a gradual shift where China’s economic influence surpasses that of the US. The chapter outlines how this displacement may erode US political leverage through deteriorating public opinion, changing elite perspectives, and diminished influence in international organizations. By focusing on structural power rather than intentionality, this framework offers new insights into the dynamics of great power competition in the developing world.
This chapter examines how China’s economic displacement of the United States affects voting patterns in international organizations. Using data from the UN General Assembly, UN Human Rights Council, and Organization of American States, the analysis reveals that when China’s economic weight surpasses that of the US in Latin American countries, these nations are less likely to align their votes with US positions. The study finds that economic displacement reduces vote convergence with the US in the UNGA, increases the probability of voting against US-supported resolutions in the UNHRC, and decreases vote alignment in the OAS. These findings suggest that China’s growing economic influence diminishes US leverage in international forums, even in organizations where China is not a member. The chapter argues that this effect stems from reduced efficacy of US economic statecraft as countries gain alternative economic partners, granting them greater autonomy in foreign policy decisions.
This concluding chapter examines the implications of China’s economic displacement of the United States in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It traces the historical context of US economic influence in the region and analyzes the current shift towards a more competitive dynamic between the US and China. The chapter identifies three key policy implications: (a) The US is likely to pursue more aggressive economic statecraft to counter China’s influence; (b) LAC is dividing into two spheres of influence, with South America increasingly aligned with China and Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean remaining in the US orbit; and (c) LAC countries will face increasing pressure to choose sides, limiting their ability to pursue non-alignment strategies. The analysis suggests that the region is entering a new era of great power competition, with significant challenges for regional cohesion and individual countries’ agency in foreign policy.
Though much research has focused on major political and humanitarian consequences of economic sanctions, little is known about how economic sanctions affect economic rights and freedoms in target countries. Often, sanctions work is divided into two main theoretical camps: direct economic effects and indirect human rights effects. These two bodies of work have significantly expanded our cumulative knowledge around economic coercion, but scholars in each camp primarily speak past one another while rarely drawing together the interrelated threads of direct and indirect sanctions effects. We challenge this common division by examining the extent to which economic sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States or the United Nations affect labour rights practices. We posit that sanctions, as a direct shock to target economies, will prompt more labour rights violations at the workplace, such as arbitrary firings and the use of child or forced labour. We maintain that sanctions also undermine labour conditions via adverse indirect effects on human rights, civil society and bureaucratic capacity. Results from a time‐series cross‐national analysis lend strong support for the proposition that sanctions are significantly and directly related to worsened labour rights conditions. We further show that sanctions also indirectly contribute to labour rights violations through negative effects on human rights conditions and reduced bureaucratic capacity in target countries. Overall, our study deepens our understanding of the complicated outcomes of sanctions on individuals in target states and illustrates the need for further exploration into the interwoven effects of this popular policy tool.
This chapter reviews recent advances in addressing the identification of the effects of sanctions on cross-country and country-level studies. It argues that, given the difficulties in assessing causal relationships in cross-national data, country-level case studies can serve as a useful and informative complement to cross-national regression studies. However, case studies pose a set of additional potential empirical pitfalls that can also obfuscate rather than clarify the identification of causal mechanisms at work, so they should be treated as a complement rather than a substitute to cross-national research. As an example, the chapter discusses the impact of sanctions on Venezuela and shows how they contributed to the country’s economic collapse through their impact on oil production, public sector revenues, and imports of essential goods. These findings are consistent with those of the broader cross-national literature, which identifies constraints on an economy’s trade and financial links as a key channel for the impact of sanctions.
Economic Displacement examines China's economic displacement of the United States in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and its implications for global geopolitics. Through data analysis and case studies, Francisco Urdinez demonstrates how China has filled the economic void left by US retrenchment from 2001 to 2020. He argues that this economic shift has led to a significant erosion of US political influence in the region, affecting public opinion, elite perspective, and voting patterns in international organizations. Providing a multifaceted view of this geopolitical transformation in this timely and important book, the author offers crucial insights into the changing landscape of global influence and the future of US–China rivalry in Latin America.
To link the economic sphere of international relations to the security sphere of international politics in this chapter, we treat economics as a function of politics and security. While controversial in some circles, this need not be so. Economists, historians, and political scientists have distinct answers to questions concerning the economy. That they differ in scope, interest, and focus should be viewed as alternatives for assessing the empirical world, not mutually exclusive representations of it. This is fundamental to the interdisciplinary approach of International Security. It should be no surprise that the vastness and complexity of the global economic system intersect with realms outside the purview of economics. Security is an arena in which the politics of economic decision-making are felt most intensely.
What is the relevance of global politics and international relations for companies, managers, and work? How will it impact your company and why should you care? This chapter identifies how changing global order thrusts upon all global businesses to respond to and actively manage geopolitics. Companies have to balance corporate interests with broader security externalities that their governments emphasize because geopolitics and economics are closely intertwined. Geopolitical risk arises when states prioritize national security and limit how companies leverage their assets in generating economic rents. A key factor shaping how a company will be impacted by the risk is its corporate nationality. Geopolitical risk in a given market is higher for companies from perceived rival countries than those from friendly ones. In order to assess the impact of geopolitical risk on their firm, companies, managers, and employees can focus on a structural perspective that emphasizes four levers that reshape the basic market structure for global companies: market access, level playing field, investment security, and institutional alignment. Ultimately, while navigating geopolitical tensions is increasingly a part of the job for many managers, it can also come at a cost to the company.
What explains change and continuity in Japan's economic statecraft? This Element examines the interplay between factional dynamics in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan's foreign policy through two cases: Japan's unprecedented decision to impose severe sanctions on Russia following its 2022 Ukraine invasion, and its decades-long ASEAN strategy amid political uncertainty and great power competition. The authors find that factional balance or the outsized influence of a large faction facilitates abrupt political-economic shifts, sustained until a similar dynamic triggers correction. Unlike most systems, Japan's intra-party politics do not lead to full leadership turnover, enabling factions to influence policy while empowering non-leadership members to drive change. This dual role strengthens barriers to change, embedding political inertia. Using factional membership data from 1961 to 2024, they argue that factions are a more systematic unit of analysis than political entrepreneurs in understanding the relationship between Japan's domestic politics and foreign policy decisions.
Since the initiation of its Belt and Road Initiative, China’s economic statecraft has drawn considerable attention in academic circles. Yet less attention has been given to why the Chinese leadership first chose to pursue its national interests through economic means in the post-Mao period. This underexplored part of China’s economic statecraft can serve as a useful starting point to understand China’s foreign economic policies on their own terms. Employing a neoclassical realist framework and surveying statements made by Chinese leaders throughout the reform era, this study argues that the country’s leaders have gradually modified the strategic importance of the country’s economic statecraft in response to changes in their perceptions of the world order. Meanwhile, China’s form of economic statecraft has largely been determined by reform of its state-owned enterprises in the domestic realm.
How does China use development finance to gain influence in international organizations? Leveraging the exogenous rotation of ASEAN and African Union Chairmanship, I estimate the effect of regional leadership on Chinese commitments. Results suggest that Chinese projects are politically motivated only when the lending and recipient entities are linked to the Chinese and host governments. Governments that assume the Chair received seven times more commitments from Chinese government agencies relative to non-Chair years, a $90 million increase for the average project. By contrast, there is no evidence to suggest that Chinese banks act as agents of Beijing. Moreover, I find a consistent null relationship between temporary UN Security Council status and Chinese finance, unlike established findings about Western donors, suggesting that China is deliberately seeking regional influence. These results underscore the importance of considering the specific actors involved in China’s economic statecraft.
In a world of weaponized interdependence, middle powers have policy choices that can enhance their autonomy. However, having this policy space is not enough. In order to turn the policy space into policy enactment, domestic politics has to align in a particular way. This chapter considers India and Brazil as examples of “middle powers” and analyzes their capacity to enact autonomy and safeguard their digital sovereignty. The authors argue that when independent institutions’ interests are incorporated into the policymaking process and are not usurped by the parliamentary (political) process, they observe the enactment of autonomy-enhancing policies. Brazil’s and India’s data localization policies are illustrative case studies. While Brazil and India are both open democracies with a technoeconomic landscapes characterized by a similar technoeconomic landscape with a hybrid mixture of foreign-owned and domestically owned companies, they have adopted different data localization policies. The authors argue that the divergent paths of Brazil and India are due to the nature of the policymaking process. India’s policymaking incorporated the interests of independent institutions. In contrast, Brazil’s parliamentary process usurped policymaking power from its independent institutions and has not yet granted the mandate and tools to either existing or necessary new institutions, such as regulatory agencies, to address this emerging and already pressing set of issues. Thus, for countries to enact policies to enhance their digital sovereignty, the interests of independent institutions must be incorporated, and their power must be increased.
Geopolitical competition between the United States and China has led to an increased reliance on economic statecraft. In this context, understanding the conditions that trigger trade, aid, or investment weaponization becomes crucial. This article examines how the United States has employed economic statecraft in response to Latin American countries’ engagement with China. The study revisits the theoretical debate on positive and negative economic statecraft and proposes a mechanism that identifies the conditions under which “carrots” or “sticks” are more likely to be employed. We argue that the US response towards Latin American countries’ engagement with China tends to prioritize economic engagement over economic coercion, particularly when dealing with countries that are politically and economically aligned with Washington policies. To test our argument, we adopt a mixed-methods approach. First, we conduct a case study analysis on the United States-Panama relationship. Second, we perform a statistical analysis to assess the impact of economic engagement with China on the allocation of American foreign assistance in the region.
This paper explores the motives and mechanisms behind data localization implemented by states to protect data, which is essential to emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence. Despite the significant negative aspects of data localization for states, the practice has become increasingly prevalent, leading to the unexplored question of why states choose to implement it. This suggests that data localization is a form of economic means derived from digital technologies and employed by states to serve political objectives. Focusing on the data in platforms, the theoretical mechanism of data localization is captured in light of two factors: network perception and security externality. Network perception pertains to a state’s perception of the positive network effect generated by platforms, while security externality refers to a state’s consideration of the security implications in relation to the economic benefits derived from the positive network effect, serving the national interest in domestic and/or international contexts. To substantiate these theoretical propositions, the paper employs a comparative case study approach where Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia have been chosen as empirical cases based on the selection strategy. The paper bridges the concept of economic statecraft with digital technologies, fosters interdisciplinary discussions, and offers policy implications.
Faced with a changing geopolitical environment, the European Union has embarked on a legislative program to upgrade its unilateral trade instruments toolbox. By reforming existing instruments—for example, anti-dumping—and by adding new instruments to the European Commission’s toolbox (foreign subsidies instrument, international procurement instrument, anti-coercion instrument, and others), the EU legislature is significantly strengthening the position of the Commission in the governance of unilateral trade policy in the EU. This development raises accountability questions. By means of a comparative analysis of democratic accountability in unilateral trade policy in the United States and the EU, I describe this transformation of executive power in the EU and I argue that a further strengthening of democratic accountability mechanisms is needed to match the Commission’s growing responsibilities in this underexamined corner of EU trade policy.
Chinese cross-border investments are often assumed to be state driven and a tool of Beijing's economic statecraft. However, corresponding evidence remains inconclusive. This article examines mainland Chinese direct investments in Taiwan and finds that they are not particularly effective tools of economic statecraft. Their excessive politicization and the sheer possibility that investments could be used for Beijing's economic statecraft resulted in a considerable pushback by Taiwan's government, bureaucrats and civil society against large and sensitive investments. The agency enjoyed by Taiwan hindered Beijing from deploying cross-Strait direct investments for political purposes, and Beijing has not openly promoted or supported such investments in Taiwan. Moreover, cross-border direct investments are by nature less exploitable for political purposes because they involve company-level commercial and entrepreneurial decisions. This sets them apart from other forms of economic statecraft, such as sanctions or trade restrictions, where the state has greater influence. Mainland Chinese companies have had limited commercial interests in Taiwan, and the investments that have been made there do not appear to have triggered significant political or security externalities. These findings suggest more generally that foreign direct investment might not be particularly effective as a tool of economic statecraft.
This article develops a conceptual framework for explaining variation in the United States’ economic statecraft in the Cold War and the present day, focusing on how US officials perceived the type of geoeconomic capability that its rivals possessed and the type of national security challenge that they posed. This framework specifies four ideal-type strategies on the part of the United States: economic containment, national economic competition, technological containment, and national technological competition. Analyses of U.S. strategy toward the Soviet Union, China, and Japan support the theory. These ideal types explain why, in the rivalry with Japan in the 1980s, the United States openly engaged in competition but did not adopt containment, relying on Voluntary Export Restraints, currency devaluation agreements, and bilateral semiconductor agreements rather than placing Japan on something historically analogous to the Commerce Department's contemporary Entity List or targeting Japan with comprehensive export controls through an institution like CoCom. These ideal types (and the theory behind them) also explain why the United States has implemented containment measures against specific Chinese companies but has not pursued a systematic “decoupling” of the US and Chinese economies.
Building on the discussion of the Belt and Road Initiative, the chapter offers a comprehensive inquiry into China’s economic statecraft. It first argues that the analogy often drawn between the BRI and the Marshall Plan misconstrues contemporary China’s economic statecraft. It then examines how the interest communities and partnership diplomacy serve as mechanisms for China’s economic influence. The next section considers how, with Chinese economic ascendancy in Asia, a semblance of Chinese centrality in Asia is emerging. The following section looks at China’s global influence effect in terms of the international discourse on its great-power standing as well as its drive for technical standard-setting in key industries. Lastly, the chapter discusses the built-in limits of the BRI and broad limitations of the Chinese economic statecraft in the twenty-first century.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and China's state-led model for economic globalization more generally, have attracted controversy: Are state-led overseas investment and lending driven by strategic motives or market rationale? How have the recipient economies reacted to the influx of Chinese capital? This special issue sheds light on these questions by first outlining the fragmented state system driving the BRI, a system featuring both Beijing's strategic logic at the top and market considerations in policy implementation. The role of the state is unpacked further in China's globalizing coal industry and in the growth of Chinese industry export to BRI countries. Finally, the issue explores the mechanisms behind public backlash and political pushback facing China in Zambia and Australia. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to shift China's relationship with the world, this special issue contributes to a more nuanced understanding of the modus operandi of Chinese capital going global.
With the globalization of Chinese capital, economic statecraft has become an increasingly prominent component of China's foreign policy. In this article, I examine China's use of economic inducements in developed democracies, a topic of growing concern for policymakers, focusing on the case of Australia. I show how Beijing's attempts to coopt public voices and influence Australia's foreign policy using non-transparent political donations and academic funding generated a strong backlash. At the same time, economic interdependence has provided a buffering effect, with key domestic actors in Australia advocating for cooperative relations, although this effect can in turn be limited by Beijing's coercive economic tactics. My findings underline the reputational costs of certain approaches to economic statecraft, the value of building supportive coalitions, and the challenges faced by China's authoritarian state capitalist model. They also highlight the impacts of globalized Chinese capital in developed democracies, including the resilience and vulnerabilities inherent in democratic political processes.