Fred Schauer’s work on probability and evidence exposes a persistent problem for criminal law: credible allegations of sexual assault routinely fall short of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, leaving serious wrongdoing unaddressed. Schauer highlights this failure through cases involving probabilistic aggregation, but ultimately locates the payoff of his analysis outside criminal adjudication. This Article returns the argument to where it belongs – within the criminal law. Deploying Schauer’s own analytical toolkit, it examines three potential levers – the burden of proof, the construction of criminal offenses, and evidentiary rules – that could be used to respond to the injustice of sexual violence. For each, it details the difficult trade-offs between protecting defendants and vindicating victims. There is no clear winner.
