In dynamic networks, the presence of ties are subject both to endogenous network dependencies and spatial dependencies. Current statistical models for change over time are typically defined relative to some initial condition, thus skirting the issue of where the first network came from. Additionally, while these longitudinal network models may explain the dynamics of change in the network over time, they do not explain the change in those dynamics. We propose an extension to the longitudinal exponential random graph model that allows for simultaneous inference of the changes over time and the initial conditions, as well as relaxing assumptions of time-homogeneity. Estimation draws on recent Bayesian approaches for cross-sectional exponential random graph models and Bayesian hierarchical models. This is developed in the context of foreign direct investment relations in the global electricity industry in 1995–2003. International investment relations are known to be affected by factors related to: (i) the initial conditions determined by the geographical locations; (ii) time-dependent fluctuations in the global intensity of investment flows; and (iii) endogenous network dependencies. We rely on the well-known gravity model used in research on international trade to represent how spatial embedding and endogenous network dependencies jointly shape the dynamics of investment relations.

Business establishment growth in the Appalachian region (2000-2007) was regressed on industry sector composition controlling for demographic, physical, and economic determinants. We test the hypothesis that local response to growth determinants is geographically heterogeneous using Smooth Transition spatial process models. This class of models exhibiting endogenous regime switching behavior provides another tool for exploring the spatially heterogeneous effects of local determinants on economic growth.

A survey is presented of stochastic and deterministic developments in the study of the effects of nearest-neighbour ‘migration’ between spatially separated ‘colonies’. Such processes are of general applicability, and are relevant to any vector process X(t) = (X 1(t), · ··, XN (t)) in which the arrival, departure and transfer rates for the states {X(t) = n} may be written in the form α i (ni ), βi (ni ) and γ ij (ni , nj ), respectively, where n = (n 1, · ··, nN ). Whilst the main body of results are described in terms of birth-death, genetic and epidemic situations, the final section examines within colony interaction in the context of spatial predator-prey processes.

In this paper the global behaviour of percolation processes on the d-dimensional square lattice is studied. Using techniques of Richardson (1973) we prove, under weak moment assumptions on the time coordinate distribution, the following result. There exists a norm N(·) on Rd such that, for all 0 < ε < 1, we have that almost surely for all sufficiently large t the N-ball of radius (1 – ε)t is contained in η, (the set of all sites occupied by time t) and η, is contained in the N-ball of radius (1 + ε)t. Richardson (1973) derived the corresponding ‘in probability' result for a class of spread processes on Rd , satisfying certain conditions.

Poisson limit theorems for U-statistics are studied. A general rate of convergence is obtained; this rate is improved for the special case where the U-statistic arises from the consideration of distances between uniformly distributed points in a well-behaved plane region.

Particles are situated on a rectangular lattice and proceed to invade each other's territory. When they are equally competitive this creates larger and larger blocks of one type as time goes by. It is shown that the expected size of such blocks is equal to the expected range of a simple random walk.