Hostname: page-component-5b777bbd6c-f9nfp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-06-21T20:22:17.158Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Unemployment and the Democratic Electoral Advantage

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 September 2012

JOHN R. WRIGHT
JOHN R. WRIGHT*
Affiliation:
Ohio State University
*
John R. Wright is Professor, Department of Political Science, Ohio State University, 2140 Derby Hall, Columbus, OH 42310 (wright.569@osu.edu).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article calls into question the conventional wisdom that incumbent parties are rewarded when unemployment is low and punished when it is high. Using county-level data on unemployment and election returns for 175 midterm gubernatorial elections and 4 presidential elections from 1994 to 2010, the analysis finds that unemployment and the Democratic vote for president and governor move together. Other things being equal, higher unemployment increases the vote shares of Democratic candidates. The effect is greatest when Republicans are the incumbent party, but Democrats benefit from unemployment even when they are in control. The explanation for these findings is that unemployment is a partisan issue for voters, not a valence issue, and that the Democratic Party “owns” unemployment. When unemployment is high or rising, Democratic candidates can successfully convince voters that they are the party best able to solve the problem.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 106 , Issue 4 , November 2012 , pp. 685 - 702
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

REFERENCES

Alesina, Alberto. 1987. “Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 102 (3): 651–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Ardagna, Silvia. 2010. “Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending.” Tax Policy and the Economy 24: 35–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Cohen, Gerald D., and Roubini, Nouriel. 1992. “Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies.” Economics and Politics 4 (1): 1–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Roubini, Nouriel. 1992. “Political Cycles in OECD Countries.” Review of Economic Studies 59 (4): 663–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Sachs, Jeffrey. 1988. “Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the U.S.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 20 (1): 63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arcelus, Francisco, and Meltzer, Allan H.. 1975. “The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 69 (4): 1232–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkenson, Lonna Rae, and Partin, Randall. 1995. “Economic and Referendum Voting: A Comparison of Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” American Political Science Review 89 (1): 99–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 1982. “Parties, Administrations, and American Macroeconomic Outcomes.” American Political Science Review 76 (1): 83–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloom, Howard S., and Price, H. Douglas. 1975. “Voter Response to Short-run Economic Conditions: The Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession.” American Political Science Review 69 (4): 1240–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blount, Simon. 2002. “Unemployment and Economic Voting.” Electoral Studies 21: 91–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Adam R. 2010. “Are Governors Responsible for the State Economy? Partisanship, Blame, and Divided Federalism.” Journal of Politics 72 (3): 605–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Card, David, and Levine, Phillip B.. 2000. “Extended Benefits and the Duration of UI Spells: Evidence from the New Jersey Extended Benefit Program.” Journal of Public Economics 78: 107–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlsen, Fredrik. 1998. “Rational Partisan Theory: Empirical Evidence for the United States.” Southern Economic Journal 65 (1): 64–82.Google Scholar
Carlsen, Fredrik. 2000. “Unemployment, Inflation and Government Popularity: Are There Partisan Effects?” Electoral Studies 19: 141–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlsen, Fredrik, and Pedersen, Elin F.. 1999. “Rational Partisan Theory: Evidence for Seven OECD Economies.” Economics and Politics 11 (1): 13–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M., and Wright, Gerald C.. 1998. “State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (3): 994–1002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cebula, Richard J. 1984. “Unemployment in the 1976 Presidential Election.” Atlantic Economic Journal 12 (1): 123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chappell, Henry W., and Keech, William R.. 1988. “The Unemployment Rate Consequences of Partisan Monetary Policies.” Southern Economic Journal 55 (1): 107–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chetty, Raj. 2008. “Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance.” Journal of Political Economy 116 (2): 173–234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cho, Wendy K. Tam, and Gimpel, James G.. 2009. “Presidential Voting and the Local Variability of Economic Hardship.” Forum 7 (1), Article 1.Google Scholar
Chubb, John E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review 82 (1): 133–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conover, Pamela Johnston, Feldman, Stanley, and Knight, Kathleen. 1986. “Judging Inflation and Unemployment: The Origins of Retrospective Evaluations.” Journal of Politics 48 (3): 565–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crew, Robert E. Jr., and Weiher, Gregory R.. 1996. “Gubernatorial Popularity in Three States: A Preliminary Model.” Social Science Journal 33 (1): 39–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ebeid, Michael, and Rodden, Jonathan. 2006. “Economic Geography and Economic Voting: Evidence from the U.S. States.” British Journal of Political Science 36: 524–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eisenberg, Daniel, and Ketcham, Jonathan. 2004. “Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What.” Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy 4 (1), Article 19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erlandsson, Mattias. 2004. “Partisan Differences in Swedish Macroeconomic Policy.” Public Choice 120 (1/2): 205–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 60 (2): 159–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 2009. “Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (1): 55–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Faust, Jon, and Irons, John S.. 1999. “Money, Politics and the Post-War Business Cycle.” Journal of Monetary Economics 43: 61–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1978. “Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro-analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 22 (2): 426–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P., Abrams, Samuel, and Pope, Jeremy. 2003. “The 2000 U.S. Presidential Election: Can Retrospective Voting Be Saved?” British Journal of Political Science 33 (2): 163–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1968. “The Role of Monetary Policy.” American Economic Review 58: 1–17.Google Scholar
Grafstein, Robert. 2005. “The Impact of Employment Status on Voting Behavior.” Journal of Politics 67 (3): 804–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Susan B. 1999. “‘Life is Not Fair’: Governors’ Job Performance Ratings and State Economies.” Political Research Quarterly 52 (1): 167–88.Google Scholar
Haynes, Stephen E., and Stone, Joe A.. 1994. “Political Parties and the Variable Duration of Business Cycles.” Southern Economic Journal 60 (4): 869–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” American Political Science Review 71 (4): 1467–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. 1986. “Parties and Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes in the United States.” American Economic Review 76 (2): 66–70.Google Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. 1992. “Partisan Theory after Fifteen Years.” European Journal of Political Economy 8 (3): 361–373.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook-Provow, Thomas M. 1987. “National Factors in Gubernatorial Elections.” American Politics Research 15 (4): 471–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howell, Susan E., and Vanderleeuw, James M.. 1990. “Economic Effects on State Governors.” American Politics Research 18 (2): 158–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jonung, Lars, and Wadensjö, Eskil. 1979. “The Effect of Unemployment, Inflation and Real Income Growth on Government Popularity in Sweden.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics 8 (2): 343–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kenney, Patrick J. 1983. “The Effect of State Economic Conditions on the Vote for Governor.” Social Science Quarterly 64 (1): 154.Google Scholar
Kiefer, David. 2000. “Activist Macroeconomic Policy, Election Effects and the Formation of Expectations: Evidence from OECD Countries.” Economics and Politics 12 (2): 137–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1981. “Policy-oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues.” American Political Science Review 75 (2): 448–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kiewiet, D. Roderick, and Udell, Michael. 1998. “Twenty-five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting Based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment.” Economics and Politics 10 (3): 219–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Jeongdai, Elliot, Euel, and Wang, Ding-ming. 2003. “A Spatial Analysis of County-level Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections: 1988–2000.” Electoral Studies 4 (22): 741–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, Gerald H. 1971. “Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964.” American Political Science Review 65 (1): 131–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Nadeau, Richard. 2011. “Economic Voting Theory: Testing New Dimensions.” Electoral Studies 30 (2): 288–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leyden, Kevin, and Borrelli, Stephen A.. 1995. “The Effect of State Economic Conditions on Gubernatorial Elections: Does Unified Government Make a Difference?” Political Research Quarterly 48 (2): 275–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Arthur H., and Klobucar, Thomas F.. 2003. “The Role of Issues in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 33 (1): 101–24.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2001. “National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.”Journal of Politics 63 (1): 159–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, Richard G., Stanley, Harold W., and Vogel, Ronald J.. 1995. “State Economies and State Taxes: Do Voters Hold Governors Accountable?” American Journal of Political Science 39 (4): 936–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Partin, Randall W. 1995. “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections: Is the State Executive Held Accountable?” American Politics Quarterly 23 (1): 81–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pelzman, Sam. 1987. “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections.” American Economic Review 77 (2): 293–97.Google Scholar
Petrocik, John R. 1996. “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (3): 825–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phelps, Edmund S. 1968. “Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor Market Equilibrium.” Journal of Political Economy 76 (S4): 678–711.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr., and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. “A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rees, Albert, Kaufman, Herbert, Eldersveld, Samuel J., and Freidel, Frank. 1962. “The Effect of Economic Conditions on Congressional Elections, 1946–1958.” Review of Economics and Statistics 44 (4): 458–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, Christina D., and Romer, David H.. 2010. “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks.” American Economic Review 100 (3): 763–801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simon, Dennis M. 1989. “Presidents, Governors, and Electoral Accountability.”Journal of Politics 51 (2): 286–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Robert M. 1990. “Economic Voting for Governor and U.S. Senator: The Electoral Consequences of Federalism.” Journal of Politics 52 (1): 29–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. 1963. “Spatial Models of Party Competition.” American Political Science Review 57 (2): 368–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svoboda, Craig J. 1995. “Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1986.” Political Research Quarterly 48 (1): 35–150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swank, O.H. 1993. “Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory.” Public Choice 75 (4): 339–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Veiga, Linda G., and Chappell, Henry W. Jr. 2002. “Politics and Unemployment in Industrialized Democracies.” Public Choice 110 (3/4): 261–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Verstyuk, Sergiy. 2004. “Partisan Differences in Economic Outcomes and Corresponding Voting Behavior: Evidence from the U.S.” Public Choice 120 (1/2): 169–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.