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Harvest Shortfalls, Grain Prices, and Famines in Preindustrial England

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 November 2011

BRUCE M.S. CAMPBELL  and
CORMAC Ó GRÁDA
BRUCE M.S. CAMPBELL*
Affiliation:
Professor of Medieval Economic History, School of Geography, Archaeology, and Palaeoecology, Queens University of Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom. Email: b.m.campbell@qub.ac.uk.
CORMAC Ó GRÁDA*
Affiliation:
Professor, School of Economics, University College Dublin, Newman Building, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland. Email: cormac.ograda@ucd.ie.
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Abstract

The frequency of bad harvests and price elasticity of demand are measured using new data on English grain yields 1268–1480 and 1750–1850 and a revised price series. The analysis shows that major harvest shortfalls were a significant component of most historical subsistence crises, as back-to-back shortfalls were of the worst famines. Although serious harvest shortfalls long remained an unavoidable fact of economic life, by c.1800 yields had become less variable and prices less harvest sensitive. By the eve of the Industrial Revolution, England had become effectively famine-free.

Type
ARTICLES
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 71 , Issue 4 , December 2011 , pp. 859 - 886
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 2011

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