Book contents
- The Drake EquationEstimating the Prevalence of Extraterrestrial Life through the Ages
- Cambridge Astrobiology
- The Drake Equation
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Contributors
- Foreword
- Preface
- Book part
- Introduction
- 1 Rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life, R*, pre-1961
- 2 Rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life, R*, 1961 to the present
- 3 Fraction of stars with planetary systems, fp, pre-1961
- 4 Fraction of stars with planetary systems, fp, 1961 to the present
- 5 Number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life, ne, pre-1961
- 6 Number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life, ne, 1961 to the present
- 7 Fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears, fl, pre-1961
- 8 Fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears, fl, 1961 to the present
- 9 Fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges, fi, pre-1961
- 10 Fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges, fi, 1961 to the present
- 11 Fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space, fc, pre-1961
- 12 Fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space, fc, 1961 to the present
- 13 Length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space, L, pre-1961
- 14 Length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space, L, 1961 to the present
- Afterword
- Index
- References
14 - Length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space, L, 1961 to the present
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 July 2015
Book contents
- The Drake EquationEstimating the Prevalence of Extraterrestrial Life through the Ages
- Cambridge Astrobiology
- The Drake Equation
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Contributors
- Foreword
- Preface
- Book part
- Introduction
- 1 Rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life, R*, pre-1961
- 2 Rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life, R*, 1961 to the present
- 3 Fraction of stars with planetary systems, fp, pre-1961
- 4 Fraction of stars with planetary systems, fp, 1961 to the present
- 5 Number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life, ne, pre-1961
- 6 Number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life, ne, 1961 to the present
- 7 Fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears, fl, pre-1961
- 8 Fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears, fl, 1961 to the present
- 9 Fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges, fi, pre-1961
- 10 Fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges, fi, 1961 to the present
- 11 Fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space, fc, pre-1961
- 12 Fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space, fc, 1961 to the present
- 13 Length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space, L, pre-1961
- 14 Length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space, L, 1961 to the present
- Afterword
- Index
- References
Summary
Abstract
The final variable in Drake's equation for estimating the number of such civilizations in the Milky Way is L, the lifetime of communicating civilizations. Drake's initial estimate for L was 10,000 years, but others have suggested different values or even defined the variable differently. Unfortunately, for empirical information on how to estimate L, we have a sample of only one, ourselves. But even those data are incomplete, since our own technology that permits interstellar communication is less than 100 years old and there is no obvious end to our civilization in sight. So, we have not only no idea of what the value of L should be, we also have little idea of how to go about estimating it. Additionally, like each of the other variables in the equation, L is almost certainly the product of many other variables. Therefore, the first goal of this chapter is to examine efforts at estimating values for L since 1961, including how those estimates were developed. Second, I will consider the concept of civilization in order to determine if the historical study of earthly examples can inform us about L. Third, I will examine variables that might influence the value of L by analyzing lists of existential risks proposed by a sample of individuals and organizations. Finally, I summarize these lines of thought in order to determine if they can inform us regarding possible values of L.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- The Drake EquationEstimating the Prevalence of Extraterrestrial Life through the Ages, pp. 270 - 297Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2015
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