The most dangerous possibility in maritime terrorism — indeed it is a nightmare scenario for many Western and Asian officials and analysts — is that terrorists might sooner or later:

1. • get and use a powerful radiological bomb, in which conventional explosives disperse deadly radioactive poison; or

2. • even a nuclear bomb, perhaps concealed in the one of over 230 million containers that move through the world's ports each year.

How could this happen? What would be the consequences of such an attack and the extent to which it could disrupt world trade? And what is being done to prevent it? The rest of this book seeks to answer these questions.

Political Economy of Terror

Al-Qaeda understands the political economy of terror. It aims for an ever more costly impact on the US, its allies and friends in the Middle East and elsewhere, and countries that support the US and British-led coalition in Iraq. The US government says that Al-Qaeda's central focus on economic targets is consistent with its stated ideological goals and longstanding strategy, to undermine what the terrorists see as the backbone of US power — the economy and the critical transportation infrastructure at home and abroad that sustains it. Striking a prominent US target for economic and symbolic reasons would have immediate worldwide impact.

Two audio tapes purportedly from Al-Qaeda's leader Osama bin Laden that were broadcast in October 2003 by Qatar-based Arabic television station Al Jazeera said that the group would launch more attacks inside and outside the United States and said that all countries backing the US occupation of Iraq were targets. The broadcast specifically named Britain, Spain, Australia, Poland, Japan, Italy and Muslim states, especially Kuwait and other Gulf states.

US officials have warned repeatedly that shipping and trade are among Al-Qaeda's prime targets and that a terrorist attack on the maritime transportation system would have a devastating and longlasting impact on global shipping, international trade and the world economy.

Following its use of a small boat packed with explosives in October 2002 to set the giant French tanker Limburg ablaze off Yemen, Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility in these terms: “If a boat that didn’ cost US$1,000 managed to devastate an oil tanker of that magnitude, so imagine the extent of the danger that threatens the West's commercial lifeline, which is petroleum.