As India enters the twenty-first century, one of the key pillars of its constitutional democracy – the commitment to secularism – remains shaky. It remains infirm despite the defeat of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)–led coalition in two successive national elections (2004 and 2009). The ideologues within the BJP and its associated organizations, most notably the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), have not abandoned their staunchly antisecular orientation. On the contrary, they have argued with some vigor that the failure of the BJP to prevail in both of the elections stems from its unwillingness to firmly uphold the values of “Hindutva.” They contend that a robust assertion of the core principles of the party would have held it in good electoral stead. The appointment of a new president, Nitin Gadkari, who has his roots in the RSS, suggests that the party is hardly about to disavow its antisecular credo. Given the perfervid commitment of party ideologues to this antisecular vision, it would be premature to assume that the danger that the BJP and its political allies pose to Indian secularism is at an end.

A postelection controversy involving a stalwart member of the BJP, Jaswant Singh, a former minister of finance and minister of external affairs (foreign minister), underscored the party's unwillingness to countenance any significant dissent regarding the critical question of its core ideological beliefs. A brief discussion of this controversy illuminates the intransigence of the party toward the question of secularism.

On May 17, 2009, India concluded its fifteenth general election. This proved to be the largest democratic electoral exercise in the country's and the world's history. The country had an eligible electorate of 714 million voters and 58 percent chose to exercise their right of adult franchise. The results of the election confounded the most astute political analysts and observers, all of whom failed to predict its outcomes. The Indian National Congress, which many had expected to fare poorly, performed extraordinarily well, winning as many as 206 seats in a 543-seat parliament. The grand hopes that many political pundits, especially those with left-wing political proclivities, had reposed in the so-called Third Front, a conglomeration of political parties coalesced around the lower-caste oriented Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), proved to be completely ill-considered. The BSP under the tutelage of Kumari Mayawati, a dalit (“untouchable”) politician (and the chief minister) from the populous and socially retrograde state of Uttar Pradesh, failed to dramatically increase its standing in the Lok Sabha, or the House of the People, winning a mere twenty seats out of a possible eighty. The Indian National Congress, which had once dominated the politics of the state, managed to obtain twenty-one seats, relegating the hypernationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to ten seats.

What explained the abject failure of Indian and foreign political analysts to accurately predict the outcome of this election?

LOCATION AND GEOGRAPHICAL SETTING

The mound of Zhongba (also known as Yangziyan) is located in group 1 of Youxi Village, Ganjing Township (37°17′14″ N, 108°1′16″ E), a little over 6 km from the confluence of the Ganjing and Yangzi rivers along a meandering river with steep slopes (Beijing ; Sichuan and Chongqing n.d.; Sichuan and Zhong 2001; Sichuan et al. 2007; Sun 1999, 2003a, 2003b, 2008; Sun and Chen 2000; Zhongguo1990).Figure 4.1 shows the locations of Zhongba on the Ganjing River and the sites along the Yangzi near the mouth of the Ganjing: Dujiayuanzi, Wazhadi, Shaopengzui, and Yajiao (Banbianjie and Luojiaqiao). After the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, the Ganjing River valley has been flooded as part of the new reservoir, submerging the Zhongba mound. Prior to this, the Zhongba mound rose over 15 m from the bottom of the meandering Ganjing River valley, just below a precipitous defile, where a slight meander in the Ganjing River is joined by a series of small tributary streams and creeks on both the right and left banks. Although both banks of the river contain some cultural remains (the total site area is about 50 ha in size), the majority of preserved strata identified by archaeological research were located on the northwestern end of an earthen mound (see Figure 4.2).