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We are frequently faced with the problem of determining whether a result is significant. People in a region may seem to have a high rate of cancer, but is it out of the ordinary? Are children much more likely to develop autism after being vaccinated? Which genes are differentially expressed in tumor and normal cells? In most cases, we end up with a numerical result, and must determine a threshold at which to call it significant. As we will see shortly, this becomes more complicated when we test many hypotheses at once, as it is then likelier that we will observe something that seems significant by chance. This chapter reviews the basic concepts in and approaches to evaluating statistical tests. We begin with the simplest case of a single result before discussing the modifications needed when doing many tests at once.
Preliminaries
Say we want to determine whether or not a coin is fair, so we flip it 10 times. Our assumption is that the coin is fair, meaning that the probability of heads (H) (or tails (T)) on any given flip is 1/2. However, the sequence we observe is 9 heads and 1 tail. We then want to determine how likely it is that this would occur given our initial hypothesis (called the null hypothesis) that the coin is fair. The basic concept is that we attempt to determine whether the results conform to the null hypothesis, usually denoted H0, that there is no difference, or whether the observations do deviate significantly, and might be more plausibly explained by an alternative hypothesis, usually denoted H1.
At the core of many disciplines – including biomedicine, finance, and the social sciences – is the search for causes. To predict future events, understand the connection between phenomena, explain why things happen, and intervene to alter outcomes, researchers must determine the causal relationships governing the behavior of the systems they study. Automating this process has been a difficult pursuit for many reasons, from insufficient data and computing power to the more fundamental question of what causality is and how it can be inferred from observational data alone.
However, many of the previous barriers to inferring complex causal relationships are falling. Through technological advances enabling interrogation of the activities of single cells, the increasing adoption of electronic health records, and the prevalence of sites like Twitter that broadcast the thoughts and actions of millions of users, we now face a flood of data. As predicted by Moore's law, computers have also become faster and cheaper, making it possible to analyze this newly generated information. These datasets are too large for manual analysis, making automated inference not just a possibility, but a necessity. Medical doctors now have patients who log their own vital statistics and symptoms between visits and must integrate this data (that captures critical moments between appointments and admissions) with the patient's history and their own background knowledge. Stock traders are confronted with worldwide financial, political, and other events (reported at a rate far faster than one could read), and must extract the pertinent information and reconcile it with what is known about how markets behave in response to news.
Since the release of the large discourse-level annotation of the Penn Discourse Treebank (PDTB), research work has been carried out on certain subtasks of this annotation, such as disambiguating discourse connectives and classifying Explicit or Implicit relations. We see a need to construct a full parser on top of these subtasks and propose a way to evaluate the parser. In this work, we have designed and developed an end-to-end discourse parser-to-parse free texts in the PDTB style in a fully data-driven approach. The parser consists of multiple components joined in a sequential pipeline architecture, which includes a connective classifier, argument labeler, explicit classifier, non-explicit classifier, and attribution span labeler. Our trained parser first identifies all discourse and non-discourse relations, locates and labels their arguments, and then classifies the sense of the relation between each pair of arguments. For the identified relations, the parser also determines the attribution spans, if any, associated with them. We introduce novel approaches to locate and label arguments, and to identify attribution spans. We also significantly improve on the current state-of-the-art connective classifier. We propose and present a comprehensive evaluation from both component-wise and error-cascading perspectives, in which we illustrate how each component performs in isolation, as well as how the pipeline performs with errors propagated forward. The parser gives an overall system F1 score of 46.80 percent for partial matching utilizing gold standard parses, and 38.18 percent with full automation.
The growing number of publicly available information sources makes it impossible for individuals to keep track of all the various opinions on one topic. The goal of our Fuzzy Believer system presented in this paper is to extract and analyze statements of opinion from newspaper articles. Beliefs are modeled using the fuzzy set theory, applied after Natural Language Processing-based information extraction. The Fuzzy Believer models a human agent, deciding what statements to believe or reject based on a range of configurable strategies.
Scientific literature is an important medium for disseminating scientific knowledge. However, in recent times, a dramatic increase in research output has resulted in challenges for the research community. An increasing need is felt for tools that exploit the full content of an article and provide insightful services with value beyond quantitative measures such as impact factors and citation counts. However, the intricacies of language and thought, and the unstructured format of research articles present challenges in providing such services. The identification of sentence contexts that encode the role of specific sentences in advancing an article's scientific argument can facilitate in developing intelligent tools for the research community. This paper describes our research work in this direction. First, we investigate the possibility of identifying contexts associated with sentences and propose a scheme of thirteen context type definitions for sentences, based on the generic rhetorical pattern found in scientific articles. We then present the results of our experiments using sequential classifiers – conditional random fields – for achieving automatic context identification. We also describe our Semantic Web application developed for providing citation context based information services for the research community. Finally, we present a comparison and analysis of our results with similar studies and explain the distinct features of our application.
In this paper, we experiment with several techniques to solve the problem of lexical substitution, both in a lexical sample as well as an all-words setting, and compare the benefits of combining multiple lexical resources using both unsupervised and supervised approaches. Overall in the lexical sample setting, the results obtained through the combination of several resources exceed the current state-of-the-art when selecting the best substitute for a given target word, and place second when selecting the top ten substitutes, thus demonstrating the usefulness of the approach. Further, we put forth a novel exploration in all-words lexical substitution and set ground for further explorations of this more generalized setting.
Unsupervised Authorship Analysis (UAA) aims to cluster documents by authorship without knowing the authorship of any documents. An important factor in UAA is the method for calculating the distance between documents. This choice of the authorship distance method is considered more critical to the end result than the choice of cluster analysis algorithm. One method for measuring the correlation between a distance metric and a labelling (such as class values or clusters) is the Silhouette Coefficient (SC). The SC can be leveraged by measuring the correlation between the authorship distance method and the true authorship, evaluating the quality of the distance method. However, we show that the SC can be severely affected by outliers. To address this issue, we introduce the Positive Silhouette Coefficient, given as the proportion of instances with a positive SC value. This metric is not easily altered by outliers and produces a more robust metric. A large number of authorship distance methods are then compared using the PSC, and the findings are presented. This research provides an insight into the efficacy of methods for UAA and presents a framework for testing authorship distance methods.
In recent years, the availability of too much information has become a fact of life for anybody connected with the Internet. The same is true for music: because of the penetration of portable devices and the availability of millions of tracks on the web, individual music collections have become unwieldy. Users need tools to help search their own song collections, and to recommend songs they may be interested in. Whereas recommendation systems have been developed for a variety of products, a music recommendation system presents special challenges, including the ability to recommend individual songs, as opposed to entire albums, even if only full album reviews are available on-line. SongRecommend, our music recommendation system, combines information extraction and generation techniques to produce summaries of reviews of individual songs from album reviews. We present a number of evaluations for SongRecommend: intrinsic evaluations of the extraction components, and of the informativeness of the summaries; and a user study of the impact of the song review summaries on users’ decision-making processes. When presented with the summary, users were able to make quicker decisions, and their choices were more varied. Whereas the smaller size of the summary has an impact on time-on-task, users do not appear to choose a specific recommendation only based on number of words. Our work demonstrates that state-of-the-art techniques in Natural Language Processing can be integrated into an effective end-to-end system.
Arabic prosody is the science that studies the music of Arabic poetry, which is mainly meter and rhyme. The identification of meters for Arabic verses or poems is a complicated task. This task requires a certain level of expertise to identify the meter to which a verse belongs. In this paper, we present BASRAH1, a system that automatically identifies the meter of Arabic poetry by using the numerical prosody method. The numerical prosody method depends on verse coding, which is derived from the general concept of Al-Khalil's feet by using two primary units (cord = 2) and (peg = 3). On testing both old and modern Arabic verses and poems, BASRAH has proved to be an efficient tool to help inexperienced users to determine the meter of Arabic verses and poems.
Morphological analysis and disambiguation are crucial stages in a variety of natural language processing applications, especially when languages with complex morphology are concerned. We present a system which disambiguates the output of a morphological analyzer for Hebrew. It consists of several simple classifiers and a module that combines them under the constraints imposed by the analyzer. We explore several approaches to classifier combination, as well as a back-off mechanism that relies on a large unannotated corpus. Our best result, around 83 percent accuracy, compares favorably with the state of the art on this task.
Spelling errors in digital documents are often caused by operational and cognitive mistakes, or by the lack of full knowledge about the language of the written documents. Computer-assisted solutions can help to detect and suggest replacements. In this paper, we present a new string distance metric for the Persian language to rank respelling suggestions of a misspelled Persian word by considering the effects of keyboard layout on typographical spelling errors as well as the homomorphic and homophonic aspects of words for orthographical misspellings. We also consider the misspellings caused by disregarded diacritics. Since the proposed string distance metric is custom-designed for the Persian language, we present the spelling aspects of the Persian language such as homomorphs, homophones, and diacritics. We then present our statistical analysis of a set of large Persian corpora to identify the causes and the types of Persian spelling errors. We show that the proposed string distance metric has a higher mean average precision and a higher mean reciprocal rank in ranking respelling candidates of Persian misspellings in comparison with other metrics such as the Hamming, Levenshtein, Damerau–Levenshtein, Wagner–Fischer, and Jaro–Winkler metrics.
In this paper, we present a Text Summarisation tool, compendium, capable of generating the most common types of summaries. Regarding the input, single- and multi-document summaries can be produced; as the output, the summaries can be extractive or abstractive-oriented; and finally, concerning their purpose, the summaries can be generic, query-focused, or sentiment-based. The proposed architecture for compendium is divided in various stages, making a distinction between core and additional stages. The former constitute the backbone of the tool and are common for the generation of any type of summary, whereas the latter are used for enhancing the capabilities of the tool. The main contributions of compendium with respect to the state-of-the-art summarisation systems are that (i) it specifically deals with the problem of redundancy, by means of textual entailment; (ii) it combines statistical and cognitive-based techniques for determining relevant content; and (iii) it proposes an abstractive-oriented approach for facing the challenge of abstractive summarisation. The evaluation performed in different domains and textual genres, comprising traditional texts, as well as texts extracted from the Web 2.0, shows that compendium is very competitive and appropriate to be used as a tool for generating summaries.
Bringing together experts in multimodal signal processing, this book provides a detailed introduction to the area, with a focus on the analysis, recognition and interpretation of human communication. The technology described has powerful applications. For instance, automatic analysis of the outputs of cameras and microphones in a meeting can make sense of what is happening – who spoke, what they said, whether there was an active discussion and who was dominant in it. These analyses are layered to move from basic interpretations of the signals to richer semantic information. The book covers the necessary analyses in a tutorial manner, going from basic ideas to recent research results. It includes chapters on advanced speech processing and computer vision technologies, language understanding, interaction modeling and abstraction, as well as meeting support technology. This guide connects fundamental research with a wide range of prototype applications to support and analyze group interactions in meetings.
What is knowledge and how is it represented? This book focuses on the idea of formalising knowledge as relations, interpreting knowledge represented in databases or logic programs as relational data and discovering new knowledge by identifying hidden and defining new relations. After a brief introduction to representational issues, the author develops a relational language for abstract machine learning problems. He then uses this language to discuss traditional methods such as clustering and decision tree induction, before moving onto two previously underestimated topics that are just coming to the fore: rough set data analysis and inductive logic programming. Its clear and precise presentation is ideal for undergraduate computer science students. The book will also interest those who study artificial intelligence or machine learning at the graduate level. Exercises are provided and each concept is introduced using the same example domain, making it easier to compare the individual properties of different approaches.