The economic, political, strategic and cultural dynamism in Southeast Asia has gained added relevance in recent years with the spectacular rise of giant economies in East and South Asia. This has drawn greater attention to the region and to the enhanced role it now plays in international relations and global economics.

The sustained effort made by Southeast Asian nations since 1967 towards a peaceful and gradual integration of their economies has had indubitable success, and perhaps as a consequence of this, most of these countries are undergoing deep political and social changes domestically and are constructing innovative solutions to meet new international challenges. Big Power tensions continue to be played out in the neighbourhood despite the tradition of neutrality exercised by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Trends in Southeast Asia series acts as a platform for serious analyses by selected authors who are experts in their fields. It is aimed at encouraging policymakers and scholars to contemplate the diversity and dynamism of this exciting region.

THE EDITORS

Series Chairman:

Choi Shing Kwok

Series Editor:

Ooi Kee Beng

Editorial Committee:

Daljit Singh

Francis E. Hutchinson

Norshahril Saat

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Southeast Asian countries are once again showing renewed interest in nuclear energy as a means to bolster energy security and meet decarbonization goals.

• Countries in this region have been exploring the use of civilian nuclear energy since the late 1950s, but their commitment has fluctuated over the decades, influenced by factors such as government support for nuclear energy, and global nuclear events affecting public opinion.

• The latest interest follows the revival of global interest in nuclear energy and progress in the development of advanced nuclear reactors as well as small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs are regarded as a potential entry point for nations new to nuclear energy because of advantages such as lower upfront costs, enhanced safety, flexible power generation, and a less disruptive impact on existing electricity grids.

• There are challenges to SMR deployment in Southeast Asia, however, one of which is the absence of international regulations specifically governing these new reactors, particularly concerning transportation and safeguards. The creation of a robust regional nuclear safety regime harmonized with international rules and regulations would augment the existing governance frameworks and afford the region greater confidence in the deployment of new SMR technology.

• Public acceptance of nuclear energy remains a crucial factor for its successful development in the region. While there is growing acceptance of the potential of nuclear energy in the region, support levels are still relatively low compared with other clean energy sources. Governments need to actively address public concerns regarding safety, trust, and risk perception connected to nuclear energy programmes.

INTRODUCTION

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, followed by the Israel-Hamas conflict in 2023, global energy prices have been subjected to great volatility and challenging issues of security of supply. These challenging trends come at a time when energy demand is growing in Southeast Asia. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024, notes that under current policy trajectories Southeast Asia is projected to be responsible for approximately 25 per cent of the world's energy demand growth from 2024 through 2035. With economic growth and population increases fuelling energy demand, Southeast Asia is expected to overtake the European Union in total energy consumption by 2050. It further notes that fossil fuels—predominantly coal—have been meeting approximately 80 per cent of the region's rising energy needs since 2010. The report also notes that ASEAN stands out as one of the few regions, alongside the Middle East, where economic expansion remains heavily reliant on carbon-intensive practices, with economic growth continuing to parallel increases in greenhouse gas emissions.2 Keen to establish a degree of energy independence to buffer against the adverse effects of these geopolitical uncertainties, Southeast Asian countries are beginning to realize that renewable energy sources, despite their high upfront capital costs, provide such an avenue.

ASEAN is, however, lagging in meeting the renewable energy goals it has set for itself. The ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016–2025 Phase II: 2021–2025 (ASEAN Centre for Energy 2020), which was released in November 2020, sets a target for ASEAN member states to achieve 23 per cent renewable energy share in the total primary energy supply target under APAEC Phase II.

Chapter 7 considers structural loading and response of horizontal-axis machines, with some theoretical background and illustrative measurements from different wind turbine types. The chapter begins with a recap on the dynamics of a single degree of freedom system, leading into a discussion of multi-DOF systems and modal analysis. The cyclic loads affecting a wind turbine structure are described including wind shear, tower shadow, and rotationally sampled turbulence. The concepts of stochastic and deterministic loading are explained and the principle of aerodynamic damping illustrated. Qualitative descriptions are given of gyroscopic, centrifugal, and electromechanical loading. The phenomenon of blade edgewise stall vibration is explained, with discussion of mechanical damper solutions. The last part of the chapter draws on an early experimental campaign in which the dynamic loading on a full scale wind turbine was measured and compared with the results of software simulation. Results from the same trials also demonstrate the difference in rotor thrust loading arising from positive and negative pitch control. The chapter concludes with a brief summary of fatigue prediction methods.

This chapter is a largely non-technical overview of economic and political aspects of wind energy policy. The cost of wind energy is assessed in terms of Levelised Cost of Energy (LCoE) with equations given in full and simplified form. Using a large database historic installed costs for UK wind both on- and offshore are given, from the earliest projects to the present day. The observed trends are discussed. Operational and balancing costs are outlined, the latter reflecting the intermittency of wind power. LCoE estimates are made for a range of installed costs and output capacity factors at typical discount rates, and compared with current generation prices. The chapter considers the economics of onsite generation with the example of a private business using wind energy to offset demand; the energy displacement and export statistics are extrapolated to compare with a national scenario for 100% renewable electricity generation. The topic of ownership is introduced and examined in the context of the UK’s first community-owned windfarm. The chapter concludes with a brief review of UK renewable energy policy, which originated with legislation to protect the nuclear power industry.

The final chapter takes a wider look at wind turbine technology in the context of a potential 100% renewable electricity supply at national or state level. The problem of intermittency is explained, together with the role of overcapacity and wind turbine power density in helping to solve it. A section on energy storage considers the theoretical storage capacity that would be needed at national level to enable wind power to serve all demand, with high level analysis using one year’s data from the UK national grid; a second case study considers the State of Texas again using measured hourly data. The potential to combine solar and wind power is examined for both case studies, in proportions so as to minimise the energy storage requirement. The economics of a wind/solar grid with storage are explored with LCOE analysis, and the results discussed in the context of different storage technologies, with a range of installed costs. The final section examines the sustainability of wind turbine manufacture, decommissioning, and disposal, with examples of new technology to reduce associated CO2 emissions. These include decarbonised steel production, recyclable blades and wood laminate towers.

Chapter 6 considers wind turbine control, including supervisory control, power limiting, starting and stopping, electrical power quality, and sector management. The importance of accurate yaw control is discussed in terms of energy capture and cyclic loading, and an active yaw system illustrated. The main focus of the chapter is real-time power control, and builds on the aerodynamic and electrical concepts covered previously in Chapters 3–5. The differences between stall and pitch regulation are explained, in the latter case in the context of both constant and variable speed operation. Power measurements from constant-speed and variable-speed pitch controlled machines illustrate the superior accuracy of the latter. Control block diagrams are given for both methods, with qualitative explanation of the principles. The procedure for starting and stopping different wind turbine types is explained, and the advantages of pitch control in this context are illustrated. The chapter includes a short description of sector management, a control strategy based on external factors such as wind speed and direction, and used for noise reduction, shadow flicker prevention, or fatigue mitigation.