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This chapter reports the results of our study on the persistence of profits in Japan. It is separated into five sections. Section I discusses the movement of average profitability during a sample period, 1964–82. Section II presents our estimation results on the persistent differences in profit rates among Japanese firms. Section III examines the influences of market share and market concentration on the projected long-run profit rate and on the speed of adjustment toward this long-run rate. The results indicate that the long-run profit rate is more strongly affected by market share whereas the adjustment speed is more strongly affected by concentration. This suggests that the adjustment speed is more strongly influenced by industry or market characteristics. To examine this possibility further, we seek in Section IV the determinants of the adjustment speed at the industry level by assigning each firm into one of the 42 three-digit industries and calculating the industrial average of the adjustment speed. The adjustment speed is compared in a sample of matched U.S. and Japanese industries. Section V summarizes our findings.
Average profit rates during 1964–82
Table 8.1 shows the movement of profit rates in Japan during the period of our inquiry, 1964–82. In the first three columns are the profit rates reported in the Corporation Enterprise Survey (Ministry of Finance) and in the fourth column is the average profit rate of 376 firms in our sample (to be discussed in detail in the next section). All the profit rates are defined as the ratio of after-tax profits inclusive of interest payments to total assets.
Competition is a dynamic process involving innovation and adaptation, survival, and failure; its outcome is a variety of products and prices that evolve in complex ways over time and are produced by a changing collection of firms. The particular patterns of evolution exhibited by different industries depend on both exogenous factors and the degree of competition present at any particular time. There are, of course, numerous ways to evaluate the strength of market competition, but for fairly obvious reasons, most attention has focused on profitability. From the point of view of the corporate strategist, profits are both an index of current success and a source of funds to finance the kinds of strategic investment that help to ensure the continuance of that success. From the point of view of public policy, profits provide a rough indication of the divergence of prices from marginal cost and thus of the difference between current market performance and the competitive ideal. And finally, from the point of view of those interested in analyzing market dynamics, profits are an important piece of the puzzle of explaining the evolution of competition. Profits at any time reflect the current degree of competition in a market, and because high profits attract entry, current profits also cause changes in the degree of competition, thus affecting its intensity in the near future.
Using profitability as an indicator of market performance is not, however, completely straightforward, and there are at least three different notions of profitability that command attention.
This project began when I visited the International Institute of Management, a member of the Science Center Berlin, during the years 1981–3. I was working on my study, Profits in the Long Run, and in visiting with people in Europe and presenting portions of that work the idea arose to do some of the same hypotheses testing for other countries as I was doing for the United States.
A project of this scope requires the enthusiastic participation of a large number of people, and this project was fortunate in there being such a group to be found. A couple of meetings were held on methodological issues, data problems, and the like, and things sailed along from then on rather smoothly – with the inevitable delays of a project with twelve participants drawn from six countries and three continents.
The gratitude of all of us goes to the Science Center Berlin, which sponsored the research of myself and several others on portions of this project, as well as a conference in 1987 to discuss preliminary results. We also thank the Center for Economic and Policy Studies (CEPS) of Brussels for sponsoring one of our earlier meetings.
Rebecca Flick provided invaluable assistance on putting the manuscript together, typing not only my work but redrafts of the work of others, and to her I owe a special note of thanks.
Table 10.1 presents the number and proportion of companies that survived, were acquired, or were liquidated over the observation period in Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The samples are those used in the country studies of persistent profitability in this volume. Unfortunately, at present, comparable figures are not available for other countries.
Out of the 458 Japanese manufacturing companies that were listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1964, 399 firms were still listed in at least one of the eight stock exchanges in Japan in 1984. Thus, over the 1964–84 period, 41 Japanese firms disappeared through mergers and 8 firms went into bankruptcy. Ten firms were not listed in any of the stock exchanges in 1984 for other reasons. The proportion of the companies in the sample that survived over the period is thus 87 percent, whereas the proportion of those companies that were acquired is 9 percent. The inclusion of the companies listed in the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1964 to the sample makes little difference in the proportions of surviving and acquired firms (column 3).
This finding for Japan makes a clear contrast to the situation in the United States and the United Kingdom. In the United States, of the original 1, 000 companies in 1950, 583 firms still existed in 1972. Thus, over the 1950-72 period, 58 percent of the original firms survived. On the other hand, 384 firms, or 38 percent, of the original 1, 000 firms were acquired over the period.
This paper examines estimation issues associated with multivariate tests of asset pricing. Two issues are considered: (1) the constraint that the sample size (N) must be less than the time series (T), and (2) the relative effect on power of using the multivariate statistic versus a univariate counterpart. We find that an alternative statistic that allows for large N does not dominate the usual portfolio tests. More notably, we find that the power of a simple diagonal statistic usually dominates the multivariate statistic for cases considered in this study.
This paper examines the role of large shareholders in monitoring managers when they propose antitakeover charter amendments. We attempt to distinguish between two competing hypotheses: the “active monitoring hypothesis” and the “passive voting hypothesis.” We find a statistically significant positive relation between institutional ownership and the stockholder wealth effects of various types of amendments, after controlling for ownership concentration among institutions, managerial ownership, and firm size. Our empirical evidence lends support to the “active monitoring hypothesis” proposed by Demsetz (1983) and Shleifer and Vishny (1986) that the existence of large shareholders leads to better monitoring of managers.
Critics argue that shelf registration greatly reduces the ability of underwriters to perform adequate due diligence. This argument suggests underwriters will demand greater compensation for shelf issues compared to such traditional issues as an insurance premium for protection against potential litigation or loss of reputation caused by inadequate due diligence. Our findings suggest the presence of such a premium, that the premium is higher for firms with higher expected due diligence liabilities, and that underwriters perceive that shelf registration erodes due diligence and, subsequently, price the due diligence erosion accordingly. This pricing behavior is consistent with our findings that firms with higher expected due diligence liabilities are more likely to choose traditional registration.
Cross-sectional and time series tests are performed to explain levels and changes in short interest. Explanatory variables and tests are chosen based on tax, arbitrage, and speculative reasons for going short. Short interest is found to follow a seasonal pattern that is weakly consistent with tax-based trading. Stocks with high betas and the existence of convertible securities or options tend to have higher levels of short interest, which is consistent with arbitrage efforts. For firms with traded options, there is a positive association between the month-to-month changes in option open interest and short interest. Prior months' returns and changes in short interest are positively related, but there is no relationship between changes in short interest and returns in the subsequent month.
An approximate method is developed for computing the values of European options on the maximum or the minimum of several assets. The method is very fast and is accurate for parameter ranges that are often of the most interest. The approach casts the problem in terms of order statistics and can be used to handle situations where the initial asset prices, the asset variances, and the covariances are all unequal. Numerical values are given to illustrate the accuracy of the method.
Most asset pricing models postulate a positive relationship between a stock portfolio's expected returns and risk, which is often modeled by the variance of the asset price. This paper uses GARCH in mean models to examine the relationship between mean returns on a stock portfolio and its conditional variance or standard deviation. After estimating a variety of models from daily and monthly portfolio return data, we conclude that any relationship between mean returns and own variance or standard deviation is weak. The results suggest that investors consider some other risk measure to be more important than the variance of portfolio returns.
Previous literature documents significant seasonalities in stock market returns. One explanation is seasonality in earnings information. If true, a return index comprised solely of firms reporting earnings should exhibit stronger intertemporal seasonalities than a return index comprised of firms not reporting earnings. Employing all New York and American Stock Exchange firms over six years, this study examines the seasonality of stock returns. Generally, seasonal patterns for reporting returns are found to be similar to or slightly weaker than for nonreporting returns. Thus, it is doubtful that earnings news seasonality induces stock return seasonality.
This paper presents an empirical analysis of firms that are delisted from a major stock exchange. The delisting process is described and stock price movements surrounding delisting are analyzed. For firms with prior announcements, equity values decline by approximately 8.5 percent on announcement day. For firms without prior announcements, a similar adjustment takes place between the last day of trading in the initial market and the close of the first day of trading in the new market. Four hypotheses concerning the decline in firm value are examined. These are the liquidity hypothesis, the management signalling hypothesis, the exchange certification hypothesis, and the downward sloping demand curve hypothesis. Evidence consistent with the liquidity hypothesis is presented in the paper. Unlike evidence on stock exchange listings, returns in the post-delisting period do not appear to be anomalous.
The paper uses a signalling equilibrium to explain the market's reaction to the announcement of a firm's financing decision. In our model, a firm can issue one of the following securities: convertible debt with a different conversion ratio, straight debt, and stock. We identify conditions under which the conversion ratio of a convertible debt issue serves as a credible signal of a firm's private information, given the continuous distribution of attributes (information) across firms. In this signalling equilibrium, we find that the lower the expected future earnings, the higher the conversion ratio of a convertible debt issue. At the limit, firms that expect the highest earnings will use straight debt financing, and firms that expect the lowest earnings will use equity financing. Based on the signalling equilibrium, we predict that at announcement of a convertible debt issue, negative abnormal common stock return increases in absolute value with the conversion ratio.