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This paper examines the validity of two widely used methods for forming conditional predicted portfolio returns. The first method relies on a one-period, mean-variance theory of equilibrium expected return, sometimes referred to as the “capital asset pricing model” (CAPM). The second method is based upon a proposal by Markowitz [14] and is called the [market model] (MM).
The purpose of this paper is to indicate that the opportunity to obtain information regarding the probability distribution of the return on a risky asset, such as a portfolio or a mutual fund, may cause a risk-averse decision maker to accept a single-period actuarially unfair gamble. This behavior is the same as that implied by utility functions that have convex segments, as originally considered by Friedman and Savage [2] and by Markowitz [12], but the utility function derived is not convex on any interval, since it is the envelope of a finite set of strictly increasing, strictly concave functions. Similar utility functions have been obtained, by Fleming [1] because of transactions costs, by Hakansson [4] by imposing a borrowing restriction on an investment-consumption model, and by Masson [14] in the context of an imperfect capital market. In this paper acceptance of single-period actuarially unfair gambles by an individual risk averse with respect to future wealth levels results from the opportunity to acquire information. The acquisition of information creates a set of conditional decisions each of which the individual may treat in an optimal manner, and that set of conditional decisions may induce risk-taking behavior.
During the early Industrial Revolution, the discovery and widespread commercial adoption of crucial technological advances permitted enormous productivity increases in the finishing of textiles and also marked the beginnings of the modern chemical industry in Europe.