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In his 1844 essay, “On the Influence of Consumption upon Production,” J. S. Mill endeavored to refute the belief that, “A great demand, a brisk circulation, a rapid consumption (three equivalent expressions) are a cause of national prosperity.” In this book, we take up the old belief and propose that aggregate demand does matter in the determination of total output. The argument requires a drastic turn in macroeconomic, theory and introduces new methods. The purpose of this book is to explain the new approach. Readers will see how new methods and concepts broaden the scope of macroeconomics and shed new light on old problems such as demand deficiency, inflexible prices, business cycles, and asset prices.
The idea that demand matters was, of course, established by Keynes (1936) – indeed, macroeconomics used to be synonymous with Keynesian economics. Alas, no more! Keynes' principle of effective demand – that aggregate demand determines the level of aggregate production or output – is in stark contrast to the neoclassical doctrine that aggregate output is determined solely by supply factors such as factor endowments and technology, and that demand is relevant only with respect to composition of outputs. Despite its empirical attractiveness, Keynesian economics has long been charged with lacking microeconomic foundations. The need for microeconomic foundations meant that the optimization of agents had to be explicitly considered in models.
Many economists have come to believe that the first principle of economics is the optimization of economic agents such as household and firm.
The standard approach such as RBC is based on the premise that the microeconomic behavior of the optimizing agent mimics dynamics of the macroeconomy. In Chapter 1, we explain that this premise is incorrect, and that the macro and micro behaviors are fundamentally different.
In this chapter, we focus on a particular aspect of the macroeconomy, namely the speed of adjustment. The premise of the standard approach is that rational economic agents must respond quickly to any change in economic environment. And it is taken for granted that this micro behavior should translate itself into the macroeconomy. Thus, one expects that the speed of adjustment in the economy as a whole is also fast in normal conditions. In this way, the standard approach does not make any distinction between the speed of adjustment of micro agents and that of the macroeconomy.
Let us take up prices as an example. Since the publication of Keynes's General Theory (1936), “inflexibile” or “rigid” prices have been always a focal point of macroeconomics. Modigliani (1944), one of the first economists, coined the proposition that what distinguishes Keynesian economics from neoclassical economics is the assumption of inflexible prices (to be precise, rigid nominal wages in his case).
Many economists take inflexibility of prices as a sign of irrationality. Aside from monopoly power or institutional barriers such as regulations, healthy market forces should make prices flexible. In this chapter, we will explain that slow changes in prices are a necessity in the macroeconomy.
Macroeconomics has gone astray. I suspect that many economists, or at least half of macroeconomists who are old enough to know the “Old Macroeconomics,” feel that way. In the past 30 years, macroeconomics has become less relevant.
The mainstream macroeconomics today begins with optimization of the representative consumer. The real business cycle (RBC) theory is the foremost example. The optimum growth theory once meant to be normative is now being taught as a descriptive theory. It is the neoclassical equilibrium theory. Preferences and technologies certainly move the economy. The prediction of the neoclassical doctrine seems often right for the very long run. However, saying that something moves eastward, and saying that it reaches the east end, are wholly different matters. Most of the time, the real economy must move on a bumpy road. It is misleading and wrong to analyze such problems as business cycles, unemployment, and deflation – the subject matters of macroeconomics – with the neoclassical equilibrium theory.
Contrary to the belief held by some economists, we need a new approach for macroeconomics, different from the standard equilibrium theory. The purpose of this book is to explain it. Having sound “microeconomic foundations for macroeconomics” has been long taken as building sophisticated optimization of an individual economic agent into a macro model. This agenda is on the wrong track. The new approach we advance in this book is based on the methods of statistical physics.
This final chapter explores the relationship between stock prices and the real economy. The standard approach – the so-called consumption-based asset pricing model – attempts to explain it based on the assumption of the representative agent. In this chapter, we argue once again that the representative agent assumption is fundamentally flawed. Drawing on the recent advancement of “econophysics” on financial markets, we argue that in contrast to the neoclassical view, there is in fact a wedge between financial markets, the stock prices in particular, and the real economy.
Introduction
Stock prices depend necessarily on the real economy. Their “correct” prices or the fundamental values are the discounted present values of a stream of future dividends/profits. Because business activities, profits in particular, are significantly affected by the state of the real economy, the stock prices are also affected by the real economy. More precisely, in the standard neoclassical theory, stock prices are simultaneously determined with all the supplies and demands in general equilibrium (Diamond, 1967). Thus, like production and consumption, the stock prices depend ultimately on preferences and technologies.
However, there is a long tradition in economics which questions whether the stock prices are really determined in the way stated above. Many believe that “bubbles” are possible in the market. And whether or not they are “rational,” extraordinary changes in the stock prices (either up or down) by themselves may do harm to the real economy They are not a mere mirror image of the real economy.
This article presents a basic scheme for deriving systematicallya filtering algorithm from the graph properties based representationof global constraints. This scheme is based on thebounds of the graph parameters used in the description ofa global constraint. The article provides bounds for the most commonused graph parameters.
L'identification de structures propres à un problème est souvent une étapeclef pour la conception d'heuristiques de recherche comme pour la compréhension de lacomplexité du problème. De nombreuses approches en Recherche Opérationnelleemploient des stratégies de relaxation ou de décomposition dès lors quecertaines struc-tures idoines ont été identifiées. L'étape suivante est laconception d'algorithmes de résolution qui puissent intégrer à la volée,pendant la résolution, ce type d'information. Cet article propose d'utiliser unsolveur de contraintes à base d'explications pour collecter une informationpertinente sur les structures dynamiques et statiques inhérentes au problème.
The NP-hard problem of car sequencing has received a lot of attention these last years. Whereas a directapproach based on integer programming or constraint programming is generally fruitless when the number of vehicles tosequence exceeds the hundred, several heuristics have shown their efficiency. In this paper, very large-scaleneighborhood improvement techniques based on integer programming and linear assignment are presented for solving carsequencing problems. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through an experimental study made on seminalCSPlib's benchmarks.
We consider the non-convex quadratic maximization problem subjectto the l1 unit ball constraint. The nature of the l1 normstructure makes this problem extremely hard to analyze, and as aconsequence, the same difficulties are encountered when trying tobuild suitable approximations for this problem by some tractableconvex counterpart formulations. We explore some properties ofthis problem, derive SDP-like relaxations and raise openquestions.
We introduce a new barrier function to solve a class ofSemidefinite Optimization Problems (SOP) with bounded variables.That class is motivated by some (SOP) as the minimization of thesum of the first few eigenvalues of symmetric matrices and graphpartitioning problems. We study the primal-dual central pathdefined by the new barrier and we show that this path is analytic,bounded and that all cluster points are optimal solutions of theprimal-dual pair of problems. Then, using some ideas fromsemi-analytic geometry we prove its full convergence. Finally, weintroduce a new proximal point algorithm for that class ofproblems and prove its convergence.
This paper analyzes adiscrete-time multi-server queue in which service capacity of eachserver is a minimum of one and a maximum of b customers. Theinterarrival- and service-times are assumed to be independent andgeometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed under theassumptions of early arrival system and late arrival system withdelayed access. Besides, obtaining state probabilities atarbitrary and outside observer's observation epochs, someperformance measures and waiting-time distribution in the queuehave also been discussed. Finally, it is shown that in limitingcase the results obtained in thispaper tend to the continuous-time counterpart.
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, for globally minimize one dimensional nonconvex problems withboth twice differentiable function and constraint, we can propose an efficientalgorithm based on Branch and Bound techniques. The method is firstdisplayed in the simple case with an interval constraint. The extension is displayedafterwards to the general case with an additional nonconvex twicedifferentiable constraint. A quadratic bounding function which is betterthan the well known linear underestimator is proposed while w-subdivision is added to support the branching procedure. Computational results on several andvarious types of functions show the efficiency of our algorithms and theirsuperiority with respect to the existing methods.
This paper presents the approach that we developed to solve the ROADEF 2003 challenge problem. This work is part of a research program whose aim is to study the benefits and the computer-aided generation of hybrid solutions that mix constraint programming and meta-heuristics, such as large neighborhood search (LNS). This paper focuses on three contributions that were obtained during this project: an improved method for propagating Hamiltonian chain constraints, a fresh look at limited discrepancy search and the introduction of randomization and de-randomization within our combination algebra. This algebra is made of terms that represent optimization algorithms, following the approach of SALSA [1], which can be generated or tuned automatically using a learning meta-strategy [2]. In this paper, the hybrid combination that is investigated mixes constraint propagation, a special form of limited discrepancy search and large neighborhood search.
Fractionnal mathematical programs appear in numerous operations research, computer science and economic domains. We consider in this paper the problem of maximizing the sum of 0–1 hyperbolic ratios (SRH). In contrast to the single ratio problem, there has been little work inthe literature concerning this problem. We propose two mixed-integer linear programming formulations of SRH and develop two different strategies to solve them. The first one consists in using directly a general-purpose mixed-integer programming solver. The second one is based on a specialized branch and bound algorithm that reformulates more precisely the problem at every node of search tree. We also propose a heuristic method and we exploit the obtained solution in order to improve the first strategy. We present computational experiments that allow to compare the different approaches.
In on-line computation, the instance of the problem dealt is notentirely known from the beginning of the solution process, but itis revealed step-by-step. In this paper we deal with on-lineindependent set. On-line models studied until now for this problemsuppose that the input graph is initially empty and revealedeither vertex-by-vertex, or cluster-by-cluster. Here we present anew on-line model quite different to the ones already studied. Itassumes that a superset of the final graph is initially present(in our case the complete graph on the order n of the finalgraph) and edges are progressively removed until the achievementof the final graph. Next, we revisit the model introduced in[Demange, Paradon and Paschos, Lect. Notes Comput. Sci.1963 (2000)326–334] and study relaxations assuming that somepaying backtracking is allowed.
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a classical framework forstochastic sequential decision problems, based on an enumerated statespace representation. More compact and structured representations havebeen proposed: factorization techniques use state variablesrepresentations, while decomposition techniques are based on apartition of the state space into sub-regions and take advantage ofthe resulting structure of the state transition graph. We use a familyof probabilistic exploration-like planning problems in order to studythe influence of the modeling structure on the MDP solution. We firstdiscuss the advantages and drawbacks of a graph based representationof the state space, then present our comparisons of two decompositiontechniques, and propose to use a global approach combining both statespace factorization and decomposition techniques. On the explorationproblem instance, it is proposed to take advantage of the naturaltopological structure of the navigation space, which is partitionedinto regions. A number of local policies are optimized within eachregion, that become the macro-actions of the global abstract MDPresulting from the decomposition. The regions are the correspondingmacro-states in the abstract MDP. The global abstract MDP is obtainedin a factored form, combining all the initial MDP state variables andone macro-state “region” variable standing for the different possiblemacro-states corresponding to the regions. Further research ispresently conducted on efficient solution algorithms implementing thesame hybrid approach for tackling large size MDPs.
Periodic Vehicle Routing Problem: classification and heuristic for tactical planning.The Periodic Vehicle Routing Problem (PVRP) consists in assigning customer visits to vehicle routes in some periods of a time horizon so as to satisfy some service level requirements that can take theform of frequency of visit, constraint on time lag between visits, or pre-defined visit patterns. We present different variants of this problem and propose a classification. Then, we consider a model for tactical planning for which we propose a heuristic: we optimise theplanning of customer visits to achieve both workload balancing andregionalisation of the routes. The objective of regionalisation reflects a desire to specializeroutes to restricted geographical area. The standard minimisation of distancetravelled is left for the underlying operational decision making model.Our heuristic achieves practical solutions for an industrialinstance with 16658 visits to schedule over a horizon of 20 days.