We investigate the kinematics of red clump stars in the Solar neighbourhood by combining data from the RAVE survey with the TGAS dataset presented in Gaia DR1. Our goal is to put new constraints on the (local) distribution of mass using the Jeans Equations. Here we show the variation of the vertical velocity dispersion as function of height above the mid-plane for both a thin and a thick disk tracer sample and present preliminary results.

We apply a novel pre-flare tracking of sunspot groups towards improving the estimation of flare onset time by focusing on the evolution of the 3D magnetic field construction of AR 11429. The 3D magnetic structure is based on potential field extrapolation encompassing a vertical range from the photosphere through the chromosphere and transition region into the low corona. The basis of our proxy measure of activity prediction is the so-called weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WGM) defined between spots of opposite polarities close to the polarity inversion line of an active region. The temporal variation of the distance of the barycenter of the opposite polarities is also found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the flare onset time estimation as function of height similar to its counterpart introduced initially in an application at the photosphere only in Korsós et al. (2015). We apply the photospheric pre-flare behavioural patterns of sunspot groups to the evolution of their associated 3D-constructed AR 11429 as function of height. We found that at a certain height in the lower solar atmosphere the onset time may be estimated much earlier than at the photosphere or at any other heights. Therefore, we present a tool and recipe that may potentially identify the optimum height for flare prognostic in the solar atmosphere allowing to improve our flare prediction capability and capacity.

This paper summarizes the first tool that is able to predict Ground Level Enhancements (GLE). It makes real-time predictions of the occurrence of GLE events from the analysis of soft X-ray and differential proton flux measured by the GOES satellite network. Before the development of this tool, space weather systems have been warning users about evolving GLE events by processing neutron measurements recorded on ground level. This tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min and 15 min with respect to the first NM station’s alert and the GLE Alert Plus warning, respectively. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under agreement No 637324.

We present evidence of the excitation of vertically polarised transverse loop oscillations triggered by a catastrophic cooling of a coronal loop with two thirds of the loop mass comprising of cool rain mass. The nature and excitation of oscillations associated with coronal rain is not well understood. We consider observations of coronal rain using data from IRIS, SOT/Hinode and AIA/SDO in a bid to elucidate the excitation mechanism and evolution of wave characteristics. We apply an analytical model of wave-rain interaction, that predicts the inertial excitation amplitude of transverse loop oscillations as a function of the rain mass, to deduce the relative rain mass. It is consistent with the evolution of the oscillation period showing the loop losing a third of its mass due to falling coronal rain in a 10-15 minute time period.

The fundamental plane (FP) is the relation between the surface brightness (I), velocity dispersion (σ) and radius (R). The tilt of FP from the virial plane (R = σ2I) not only tells the dynamical states of the system but also its formation and evolution. We motivate to looking for an FP in Galactic open clusters (OCs). To form a sample of OCs, we access the most recent DR 14 data from the SDSS/APOGEE2 and the Gaia-ESO survey. Membership of stars is determined via radial velocity and metallicity, plus star’s location in the color-magnitude diagram. Besides the velocity dispersion (σrv) obtained from SDSS/APOGEE2 & Gaia-ESO, the average surface brightness (IKs), and apparent radii (r2) of OCs are taken from known OC catalog. A weak relation is found: log(r2) ∝ -0.34 * log(σ) - 0.08 * IKs. An implication of this FP needs further investigation.

We explore morphological, kinematic and chemical trends of boxy/peanut (b/p) bulges of Milky Way (MW)-type galaxies, to better understand the formation history of the MW’s bulge. We show, using N-body simulations with both a kinematically cold and a kinematically hot disc, that colder populations develop a more prominent bar and X-shaped peanut as compared to their hotter counterpart. Colder discs also exhibit lower line-of-sight velocities (when viewed edge-on) at the edges of the b/p compared to hot discs, in agreement with what is seen for the MW bulge. Furthermore, we explore an N-body model which has three co-spatial discs with metallicities which correspond to the stellar populations of the inner Milky Way, where the α-enhanced thick disc populations are massive and centrally concentrated. The metallicity trends seen in observations of the Bulge can be reproduced in the model without the need of adding any additional components, which hints to the disc origin of the MW’s bulge.

There are roughly 25 very metal-poor (VMP; [Fe/H] < -2.0), highly r-process-enhanced (‘r-II’; [Eu/Fe] > + 1.0) stars currently known, discovered over the past 20+ years. These stars provide nearly pure signatures of r-process events early in the Galactic history. We are conducting a high-resolution follow-up survey of RAVE and other bright targets to identify a total of > 100 r-II stars. Our pilot runs on the du Pont 2.5-m at Las Campanas Observatory and the ARC 3.5-m at Apache Point Observatory have already identified up to fourteen new r-II stars. We are continuing our high-resolution follow-up efforts to constrain the astrophysical site(s) and nature of the r-process.

The SDSS Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) has collected high resolution near-IR spectra for several hundred thousand stars throughout the Milky Way. We review some of the results related to chemistry of stars in the disk, where APOGEE has a particular advantage by virtue of being able to work in more obscured areas. The ability to measure carbon and nitrogen abundances in giants in the near-IR provides insight into stellar ages. We summarize results on the variation of mean metallicity, metallicity distribution functions, and the [α/Fe]–[Fe/H] relation across the Galactic disk, as well as results on the structural parameters in mono-abundance populations. Many of these results suggest that radial migration has played a significant role in the Galactic disk. It may be possible to disentangle radial mixing using multi-element abundance patterns.

The paper outlines the space-weather-related observations, instrumentation, research and service developments carried out at the Geophysical Centre of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) in Dourbes, Belgium.

Because of the significant dangers they pose, accurate forecasting of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is vital. Whilst it has long been known that SEP-production is associated with high-energy solar events, forecasting algorithms based upon the observation of these types of solar event suffer from high false alarm rates. Here we analyse the parameters of 4 very high energy solar events which were false alarms, with a view to reaching an understanding as to why SEPs were not detected at Earth. We find that in each case at least two factors were present which have been shown to be detrimental to SEP production.

We present accurate methods of abundance determination based on the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) line formation for carbon, oxygen, calcium, titanium, and iron in the atmospheres of BAF-type stars. For C I-II, O I, Ca I-II, and Ti I-II, their comprehensive model atoms were described in our previous papers. A fairly complete model atom of Fe I-II is first applied in this study. We determine the NLTE abundances of the nine BAF-type stars with well-determined atmospheric parameters, using high-resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio spectral observations in the broad wavelength range, from the UV to the IR. For C, Ca, Ti, and Fe, NLTE leads to consistent abundances from the lines of the two ionisation stages. The C I, Ca II, and Fe II emission lines were detected in the near IR spectrum of the late B-type subgiant star HD 160762. They are well reproduced in the classical hydrostatic model atmosphere, when applying our NLTE methods.

Case studies show that some energetic particle flux enhancements up to MeV/nuc. observed at 1 AU cannot be treated as a consequence of particle acceleration at shocks or during flares. Atypical energetic particle events (AEPEs) are often detected during crossings of magnetic cavities formed by strong current sheets of various origins in the solar wind. Such cavities confine small-scale magnetic islands (SMIs) produced by magnetic reconnection. SMIs, in turn, trap and re-accelerate energetic particles according to predictions based on the theory of Zank et al. describing stochastic particle energization in the supersonic solar wind via numerous dynamically interacting SMIs. AEPEs possess energies that overlap SEP events and can be an important component in understanding space weather.

There is growing evidence that, among the various subclasses of carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars, the outer halo of the Milky Way exhibits a higher frequency of CEMP-no stars (those having no over-abundances of heavy neutron-capture elements) compared with the CEMP-s stars (those with over-enhancements of the s-process elements), while the inner halo shows a higher frequency of CEMP-s stars. We map out fractions of CEMP-no and CEMP-s stars in the inner- and outer-halo populations, separated by their spatial distribution of carbonicity ([C/Fe]), a so-called “carbonicity map”, based on a sample of over 100,000 main-sequence turnoff stars with available spectroscopy from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The CEMP-no and CEMP-s objects are classified by different levels of absolute carbon abundances for our sample, A(C). We also present kinematic and orbital characteristics of these subclasses for each population. The contrast appearing in these characteristics provides critical constraints on the assembly history of the two primary stellar components of the Galactic halo.

The space weather forecast can be conditionally divided into three components: 1) The forecast of recurrent slowly varying events which are associated with the topology of a large-scale magnetic field; 2) Evaluation of fluxes of ultraviolet and extreme radiation; 3) Detecting and determining the parameters of eruptions and CME. All three components can be observed and evaluated by ground-based telescopes. In this article we describe the telescopes of the space weather service in Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station. Telescope-magnetograph STOP for the forecast of recurrent events and patrol telescopes-spectrographs for detecting CME and estimating hard radiation fluxes.

We report the results of abundance analysis for high-resolution spectra of eight extremely metal-poor turn-off stars selected from SDSS/SEGUE. Based on differential analysis adopting stellar parameters from Balmer line profiles, we obtain the following results: i) Statistically significant scatter is found in [X/Fe] (X=Na, Mg, Cr, Ti, Sr and Ba), among which [Na/Fe] shows an apparent bimodal distribution, ii) Li abundances are ~0.3 dex lower in [Fe/H]<−3.5 than the Spite plateau value without significant scatter.

A number of recent studies have claimed that the double red clump observed in the Milky Way bulge is a consequence of an X-shaped structure. In particular, Ness & Lang (2016) report a direct detection of a faint X-shaped structure in the bulge from the residual map of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) image. Here we show, however, that their result is seriously affected by a bulge model subtracted from the original image. When a boxy bulge model is subtracted, instead of a simple exponential bulge model as has been done by Ness & Lang, we find that most of the X-shaped structure in the residuals disappears. Furthermore, even if real, the stellar density in the claimed X-shaped structure is way too low to be observed as a strong double red clump (dRC) at l = 0°.

We show how to capture the behaviour of the phase-space distribution function (DF) of a Galactic disc stellar population at a resonance. This is done by averaging the Hamiltonian over fast angle variables and re-expressing the DF in terms of a new set of canonical actions and angles variables valid in the resonant region. We then assign to the resonant DF the time average along the orbits of the axisymmetric DF expressed in the new set of actions and angles. This boils down to phase-mixing the DF in terms of the new angles, such that the DF for trapped orbits only depends on the new set of actions. This opens the way to quantitatively fitting the effects of the bar and spirals to Gaia data in terms of distribution functions in action space.

Our back-tracing code (GeoMagSphere) reconstructs the cosmic ray trajectories inside the Earth’s magnetosphere. GeoMagSphere gets the incoming directions of particles entering the magnetopause and disentangles primary from secondary particles (produced in atmosphere) or even particles trapped inside the Earth’s magnetic field. The separation of these particle families allows us to evaluate the geomagnetic rigidity cutoff. The model can be used considering the internal symmetric (IGRF-12) magnetic field only, or adding the asymmetric external one (Tsyganenko models: T89, T96 or TS05). A quantitative comparison among these models is presented for quiet (solar pressure Pdyn < 4 nPa) and disturbed (Pdyn > 4 nPa) periods of solar activity, as well as during solar events like flares, CMEs. In this analysis we focused our attention on magnetic field data in magnetosphere, from Cluster, and simulated cosmic rays for a generic detector on the ISS as for example AMS-02. We found that high solar activity periods, like a large fraction of the period covering years 2011-2015, are better described using IGRF+TS05 model. Results, i.e. the average vertical rigidity cutoff at the ISS orbit, are shown in geographic maps of 2° × 2° cells.

Modelling of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) is usually carried out by means of the 1D focused transport equation and the same approach is adopted within several SEP Space Weather forecasting frameworks. We present an alternative approach, based on test particle simulations, which naturally describes 3D particle propagation. The SPARX forecasting system is an example of how test particle simulations can be used in real time in a Space Weather context. SPARX is currently operational within the COMESEP Alert System. The performance of the system, which is triggered by detection of a solar flare of class >M1.0 is evaluated by comparing forecasts for flare events between 1997 and 2017 with actual SEP data from the GOES spacecraft.

Early Warning of Space Weather phenomena is one of the most important products produced by Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX). The aim is to deliver a verified warning to Mexican National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED) as well as to general public in near-real time automatically. First, the international pubic warning (or alert) is produced by Space Weather Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S.A. Further, the alert is received by SCiESMEX system, decodified, translated in Spanish and put in the context of local current conditions. The alerts are transformed and validated in agreement to Mexican policies of civil protection and CENAPRED protocols. The automatic system segments the information and delivers the corresponding web- page-alerts, emails, twits, facebook messages and SMS. The latency of the alert is 5 minutes. The code is running since January of 2015 without major interruptions.