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We consider an experiment that yields, as data, a sample of independent and identically distributed (real-valued) random variables with a common distribution on the real line. The estimation of the underlying mean and median is discussed at length, and bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed. Tests comparing the underlying distribution to a given distribution (e.g., the standard normal distribution) or a family of distribution (e.g., the normal family of distributions) are introduced. Censoring, which is very common in some clinical trials, is briefly discuss.
This well-balanced introduction to enterprise risk management integrates quantitative and qualitative approaches and motivates key mathematical and statistical methods with abundant real-world cases - both successes and failures. Worked examples and end-of-chapter exercises support readers in consolidating what they learn. The mathematical level, which is suitable for graduate and senior undergraduate students in quantitative programs, is pitched to give readers a solid understanding of the concepts and principles involved, without diving too deeply into more complex theory. To reveal the connections between different topics, and their relevance to the real world, the presentation has a coherent narrative flow, from risk governance, through risk identification, risk modelling, and risk mitigation, capped off with holistic topics - regulation, behavioural biases, and crisis management - that influence the whole structure of ERM. The result is a text and reference that is ideal for graduate and senior undergraduate students, risk managers in industry, and anyone preparing for ERM actuarial exams.
This compact course is written for the mathematically literate reader who wants to learn to analyze data in a principled fashion. The language of mathematics enables clear exposition that can go quite deep, quite quickly, and naturally supports an axiomatic and inductive approach to data analysis. Starting with a good grounding in probability, the reader moves to statistical inference via topics of great practical importance – simulation and sampling, as well as experimental design and data collection – that are typically displaced from introductory accounts. The core of the book then covers both standard methods and such advanced topics as multiple testing, meta-analysis, and causal inference.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
An introduction to the emergence of heavy-tailed distributions in the context of extremal processes.Max-stable distributions are introduced, and the extremal central limit theory is presented.Further, an example of the emergence of heavy tails in the extremes of random walks is presented.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
An introduction to the class of heavy-tailed distributions, including formal definitions, basic properties, and examples of common distributions that are heavy-tailed.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
An introduction to the class of regularly varying distributions and the important properties of this class, including scale invariance. Examples of applying regularly varying distributions to branching processes are included.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
An introduction to the emergence of heavy-tailed distributions in the context of multiplicative processes.The multiplicative central limit theorem is presented, and variations of multiplicative processes with lower barriers and noise are studied.Further, an example of the emergence of heavy tails in random graphs via preferential attachment is included.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Extremal approaches for semi-parametric estimation of power-law tails are presented, including the Hill estimator, the moments estimate, the Pickands estimator, and Peaks over threshold.Further, approaches for estimating where the tail begins are presented, including PLFIT and the double bootstrap method.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
An introduction to the class of long-tailed distributions and the important properties of this class, including properties of the hazard rate and the residual life distribution. Examples applying long-tailed distributions to random extrema are included.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Classical approaches for parametric estimation of power-laws distributions are presented, including (weighted) linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation.
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam
Jayakrishnan Nair, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,Adam Wierman, California Institute of Technology,Bert Zwart, Stichting Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI), Amsterdam