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Focusing on mixed-effects models, this book offers a comprehensive guide to analysing experiments across diverse fields, including behavioural, agricultural, and medical sciences. The text opens with a traditional analysis of variance and then ranges from linear fixed-effects models to generalised linear mixed-effects models. It covers the most common experimental designs, such as factorial, hierarchical, between-subject, within-subject, cross-over, two-factor mixed, and split-plot designs, before studying analysis of covariance, models with group-specific error variances and models for repeated-measures analysis. Frequently drawing on real-life experiments, the book offers 69 examples and 134 exercises. Readers are supported with digital supplements, comprising the solutions to exercises, the datasets and R code and SAS code for all examples requiring software computation. This is an essential resource for students, practitioners conducting experiments and applied statisticians wishing to use mixed-effects models for the analysis of experiments.
This second edition provides a comprehensive and unified presentation of the theory and applications of first-passage processes. It begins by developing the phenomenology from basic principles and illustrating it via the first-passage properties of the interval, the semi-infinite line, spherical geometries, unbounded domains, and bounded two-dimensional domains. Dedicated sections describe first-passage processes in many types of systems, including complete and nearly complete graphs, the Erdős-Renyi graph, the Cayley tree, and hierarchical networks. The new edition has been substantially revised and expanded to include new sections on the martingale method, heterogeneity, and other important concepts. A wide range of new applications are discussed, such as queueing, birth-death reactions, the Polya urn, resetting, chemoreception, search processes, and the 'hot hand' paradox. The book's accessible style makes it a valuable resource for researchers and students in statistical and mathematical physics, chemistry, engineering, and all other fields in which first-passage problems arise.
This practical guide demonstrates the use of methods to analyze sequential data, from basic standard methods to advanced novel techniques, all in the setting of an accessible, intuitive view of underlying statistical theory. The book reveals the unappreciated limitations of standard methods and shows how simple new viewpoints can overcome these obstacles and open up novel opportunities for discovery. Readers, from beginning students of astronomy, physics, statistics, and other technical subjects, to seasoned practitioners in these fields, are invited to use thought-provoking exercises to delve deeper into important topics without resorting to mindless calculations. Several case studies are included – not only to point out the end results, but to illustrate how the scientific process is actually carried out in practice. Scargle, a well-known pioneer in the field, shares his decades of experience to demonstrate improvements and extensions of classical techniques and discourage uncritical use of 'black box' analyses.
How can we draw reliable conclusions from limited and imperfect data? This textbook offers a clear and accessible guide to the principles behind scientific inference, showing how a unifying framework connects fields as diverse as Earth science, medical imaging, non-destructive testing, meteorology, climate research, and machine learning. It presents both classical and modern methods for solving real-world inference problems, with practical guidance on evaluating the reliability of results and understanding their uncertainties. Designed as both a learning resource and a long-term reference, the book balances depth with clarity. Hands-on computational exercises throughout help readers translate ideas into practice, strengthen their intuition and build confidence in tackling their own data challenges. It is ideal for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students, as well as researchers and professionals, across many disciplines, from environmental science and medical imaging to climate research, machine learning, and economics.
This book studies the emergence of large-scale structure from small structures in the context of random graphs. Typical large graphs with fixed edge density e and triangle density t are described by a 'graphon' that solves a constrained optimization problem. Proofs are provided of the existence of infinitely many open sets ('phases') in the (e,t) plane where the optimal graphon is unique and varies analytically with (e,t). The optimal graphons take a simple form, with symmetries that vary from phase to phase, indicating an emergent self-organization of the corresponding graphs. Besides being of independent interest in the theory of random graphs, extremal combinatorics and the calculus of variations, this provides a rigorous framework for studying ideas from statistical physics that have never been proven in their original setting. The techniques presented in this book can serve as a guide for optimization problems in other fields.
In recent decades, game theory has been extensively used in academic research throughout the social sciences, including international relations. The typical format of applied game theoretic journal articles is theorem-proof, but while the proof demonstrates that the theorem is true, it doesn't typically show how the researcher actually “discovered” the theorem. Ahmer Tarar's Game-Theoretic Models of International Crisis Bargaining explains how to derive the equilibria of (sometimes complicated) game-theoretic models. Examining central results on international crisis bargaining, using a unified modeling framework, he presents simplified versions of important published game-theoretic models in international conflict to demonstrate how to construct and solve game-theoretic models for academic research. He provides detailed derivations for each result, presenting a proposition summarizing the entire equilibrium strategy profile. With over 300 exercises, ranging from easy to difficult, Tarar provides readers with extensive practice for honing their skills and becoming skilled modelers.
Preferences are the point of departure for economic analysis. Despite myriad experiments designed to characterize preferences, no consensus has been reached. In The Evolutionary Foundation of Preferences, Arthur J. Robson and Larry Samuelson examine how economic preferences might be shaped by biological evolution. They theorize that each of us is descended from a line of ancestors who were able to survive and reproduce, and they analyze how this may have affected modern preferences. Drawing on demographic models, they explain how different preferences induce different behaviors which lead to different growth rates among respective subpopulations. People whose preferences induce the highest growth rate eventually comprise the overwhelming proportion of the population. Examining neuroscientific evidence that points to a cardinal, or hedonic, interpretation of utility, the authors discuss the implications of these interpretations and the challenges raised for welfare economics.
This book offers a comprehensive introduction to Markov decision process and reinforcement learning fundamentals using common mathematical notation and language. Its goal is to provide a solid foundation that enables readers to engage meaningfully with these rapidly evolving fields. Topics covered include finite and infinite horizon models, partially observable models, value function approximation, simulation-based methods, Monte Carlo methods, and Q-learning. Rigorous mathematical concepts and algorithmic developments are supported by numerous worked examples. As an up-to-date successor to Martin L. Puterman's influential 1994 textbook, this volume assumes familiarity with probability, mathematical notation, and proof techniques. It is ideally suited for students, researchers, and professionals in operations research, computer science, engineering, and economics.
Businesses are increasingly leveraging big data in financial analysis to improve decision-making, risk management, and market competitiveness, and professionals who know how to apply this data are in high demand. Designed for graduate programs and advanced undergraduate studies, this text synthesizes traditional statistics and econometrics with contemporary artificial intelligence and machine learning methods, preparing readers for the realities of modern-day financial data analysis. It studies known unknowns versus unknown unknowns and provides a systematic and objective characterization of statistical versus actual significance. Applying advanced theoretical and empirical methods to massive high-frequency databases, the book explores market microstructure, risk, market efficiency, equities, fixed income securities, and options. Grounded in over three decades of research, consulting, management, and teaching experience, it serves as a comprehensive and practical resource for students, practitioners, and scholars in capital markets, advanced analytics, and litigation.
This comprehensive guide presents a data science approach to healthcare quality measurement and provider profiling for policymakers, regulators, hospital quality leaders, clinicians, and researchers. Two volumes encompass basic and advanced statistical techniques and diverse practical applications. Volume 1 begins with a historical review followed by core concepts including measure types and attributes (bias, validity, reliability, power, sample size); data sources; target conditions and procedures; patient and provider observation periods; attribution level; risk modeling; social risk factors; outlier classification; data presentation; public reporting; and graphical approaches. Volume 2 introduces causal inference for provider profiling, focusing on hierarchical regression models. These models appropriately partition systematic and random variation in observations, accounting for within-provider clustering. Item Response Theory models are introduced for linking multiple categorical quality metrics to underlying quality constructs. Computational strategies are discussed, followed by various approaches to inference. Finally, methods to assess and compare model fit are presented.
This comprehensive guide presents a data science approach to healthcare quality measurement and provider profiling for policymakers, regulators, hospital quality leaders, clinicians, and researchers. Two volumes encompass basic and advanced statistical techniques and diverse practical applications. Volume 1 begins with a historical review followed by core concepts including measure types and attributes (bias, validity, reliability, power, sample size); data sources; target conditions and procedures; patient and provider observation periods; attribution level; risk modeling; social risk factors; outlier classification; data presentation; public reporting; and graphical approaches. Volume 2 introduces causal inference for provider profiling, focusing on hierarchical regression models. These models appropriately partition systematic and random variation in observations, accounting for within-provider clustering. Item Response Theory models are introduced for linking multiple categorical quality metrics to underlying quality constructs. Computational strategies are discussed, followed by various approaches to inference. Finally, methods to assess and compare model fit are presented.
CHANCE PERMEATES OUR physical and mental universe. While the role of chance in human lives has had a longer history, starting with the more authoritative influence of the nobility, the more rationally sound theory of probability and statistics has come into practice in diverse areas of science and engineering starting from the early to mid-twentieth century. Practical applications of statistical theories proliferated to such an extent in the previous century that the American government-sponsored RAND corporation published a 600-page book that wholly consisted of a random number table and a table of standard normal deviates. One of the primary objectives of this book was to enable a computer-simulated approximate solution of an exact but unsolvable problem by a procedure known as the Monte Carlo method devised by Fermi, von Neumann, and Ulam in the 1930s–40s.
Statistical methods are the mainstay of conducting modern scientific experiments. One such experimental paradigm is known as a randomized control trial, which is widely used in a variety of fields such as psychology, drug verification, testing the efficacy of vaccines, agricultural sciences, and demography. These statistical experiments require sophisticated sampling techniques in order to nullify experimental biases. With the explosion of information in the modern era, the need to develop advanced and accurate predictive capabilities has grown manifold. This has led to the emergence of modern artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Further, climate change has become a reality of modern civilization. Accurate prediction of weather and climatic patterns relies on sophisticated AI and statistical techniques. It is impossible to think of a modern economy and social life without the influence and role of chance, and hence without the influence of technological interventions based on statistical principles. We must begin this journey by learning the foundational tenets of probability and statistics.
EMPIRICAL TECHNIQUES rely on abstracting meaning from observable phenomena by constructing relationships between different observations. This process of abstraction is facilitated by appropriate measurements (experiments), suitable organization of data generated by measurements, and, finally, rigorous analysis of the data. The latter is a functional exercise that synthesizes information (data) and theory (model) and enables prediction of hitherto unobserved phenomena.1 It is important to underscore that a good theory (model) that explains a certain phenomenon well by appealing to a set of laws and conditions is expected to be a good candidate for predicting the same using reliable data. For example, a good model for the weight of a normal human being is w = m * h, where w and h refer to weight and height of the person, and m can be set to unity if appropriate units are chosen. A rational explanation of such a formula for weight based on anatomical considerations is perhaps very reasonable. From an empirical standpoint, if we collect height and weight data of normal humans, we will notice that a linear model of the form w = m * h represents the data reasonably well and may be used to predict the weight of the person based on the height of the person. This fact ascertains a functional symmetry between explanation and prediction. Therefore, a good predictive model must automatically be able to explain the data (and related events) well.