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Businesses are increasingly leveraging big data in financial analysis to improve decision-making, risk management, and market competitiveness, and professionals who know how to apply this data are in high demand. Designed for graduate programs and advanced undergraduate studies, this text synthesizes traditional statistics and econometrics with contemporary artificial intelligence and machine learning methods, preparing readers for the realities of modern-day financial data analysis. It studies known unknowns versus unknown unknowns and provides a systematic and objective characterization of statistical versus actual significance. Applying advanced theoretical and empirical methods to massive high-frequency databases, the book explores market microstructure, risk, market efficiency, equities, fixed income securities, and options. Grounded in over three decades of research, consulting, management, and teaching experience, it serves as a comprehensive and practical resource for students, practitioners, and scholars in capital markets, advanced analytics, and litigation.
This comprehensive guide presents a data science approach to healthcare quality measurement and provider profiling for policymakers, regulators, hospital quality leaders, clinicians, and researchers. Two volumes encompass basic and advanced statistical techniques and diverse practical applications. Volume 1 begins with a historical review followed by core concepts including measure types and attributes (bias, validity, reliability, power, sample size); data sources; target conditions and procedures; patient and provider observation periods; attribution level; risk modeling; social risk factors; outlier classification; data presentation; public reporting; and graphical approaches. Volume 2 introduces causal inference for provider profiling, focusing on hierarchical regression models. These models appropriately partition systematic and random variation in observations, accounting for within-provider clustering. Item Response Theory models are introduced for linking multiple categorical quality metrics to underlying quality constructs. Computational strategies are discussed, followed by various approaches to inference. Finally, methods to assess and compare model fit are presented.
This comprehensive guide presents a data science approach to healthcare quality measurement and provider profiling for policymakers, regulators, hospital quality leaders, clinicians, and researchers. Two volumes encompass basic and advanced statistical techniques and diverse practical applications. Volume 1 begins with a historical review followed by core concepts including measure types and attributes (bias, validity, reliability, power, sample size); data sources; target conditions and procedures; patient and provider observation periods; attribution level; risk modeling; social risk factors; outlier classification; data presentation; public reporting; and graphical approaches. Volume 2 introduces causal inference for provider profiling, focusing on hierarchical regression models. These models appropriately partition systematic and random variation in observations, accounting for within-provider clustering. Item Response Theory models are introduced for linking multiple categorical quality metrics to underlying quality constructs. Computational strategies are discussed, followed by various approaches to inference. Finally, methods to assess and compare model fit are presented.
The culmination of years of teaching experience, this book provides a modern introduction to the mathematical theory of interacting particle systems. Assuming a background in probability and measure theory, it has been designed to support a one-semester course at a Master or Ph.D. level. It also provides a useful reference for researchers, containing several results that have not appeared in print in this form before. An emphasis is placed on graphical representations, which are used to give a construction that is intuitively easier to grasp than the traditional generator approach. Also included is an extensive look at duality theory, along with discussions of mean-field methods, phase transitions and critical behaviour. The text is illustrated with the results of numerical simulations and features exercises in every chapter. The theory is demonstrated on a range of models, reflecting the modern state of the subject and highlighting the scope of possible applications.
Progress in the social sciences entails developing and improving theoretical understanding of social phenomena and improving methods for collecting and analyzing data. Theories organize what we know or expect to learn about phenomena and methods provide the evidential basis for the theories. While we have witnessed great strides in the development of statistical methods, there is less information for developing theories. In Developing Theories in the Social Sciences, Jane Sell and Murray Webster Jr. describe an approach for logical, consistent, and useful explanatory theories for social scientists. They emphasize properly defining concepts to embed in theoretical propositions, while providing guidelines for avoiding missteps that can occur, including imprecise definitions, incomplete assumptions, and missing scope conditions. Offering examples from different disciplines, the authors propose a structured method vital for building and refining theories about social phenomena.
This comprehensive yet accessible guide to enterprise risk management for financial institutions contains all the tools needed to build and maintain an ERM framework. It discusses the internal and external contexts within which risk management must be carried out, and it covers a range of qualitative and quantitative techniques that can be used to identify, model and measure risks. This third edition has been thoroughly revised and updated to reflect new regulations and legislation. It includes additional detail on machine learning, a new section on vine copulas, and significantly expanded information on sustainability. A range of new case studies include Theranos and FTX. Suitable as a course book or for self-study, this book forms part of the core reading for the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' examination in enterprise risk management.
Statistical modelling and machine learning offer a vast toolbox of inference methods with which to model the world, discover patterns and reach beyond the data to make predictions when the truth is not certain. This concise book provides a clear introduction to those tools and to the core ideas – probabilistic model, likelihood, prior, posterior, overfitting, underfitting, cross-validation – that unify them. A mixture of toy and real examples illustrates diverse applications ranging from biomedical data to treasure hunts, while the accompanying datasets and computational notebooks in R and Python encourage hands-on learning. Instructors can benefit from online lecture slides and exercise solutions. Requiring only first-year university-level knowledge of calculus, probability and linear algebra, the book equips students in statistics, data science and machine learning, as well as those in quantitative applied and social science programmes, with the tools and conceptual foundations to explore more advanced techniques.
Aimed at practising biologists, especially graduate students and researchers in ecology, this revised and expanded 3rd edition continues to explore cause-effect relationships through a series of robust statistical methods. Every chapter has been updated, and two brand-new chapters cover statistical power, Akaike information criterion statistics and equivalent models, and piecewise structural equation modelling with implicit latent variables. A new R package (pwSEM) is included to assist with the latter. The book offers advanced coverage of essential topics, including d-separation tests and path analysis, and equips biologists with the tools needed to carry out analyses in the open-source R statistical environment. Writing in a conversational style that minimises technical jargon, Shipley offers an accessible text that assumes only a very basic knowledge of introductory statistics, incorporating real-world examples that allow readers to make connections between biological phenomena and the underlying statistical concepts.
This book offers a comprehensive introduction to Markov decision process and reinforcement learning fundamentals using common mathematical notation and language. Its goal is to provide a solid foundation that enables readers to engage meaningfully with these rapidly evolving fields. Topics covered include finite and infinite horizon models, partially observable models, value function approximation, simulation-based methods, Monte Carlo methods, and Q-learning. Rigorous mathematical concepts and algorithmic developments are supported by numerous worked examples. As an up-to-date successor to Martin L. Puterman's influential 1994 textbook, this volume assumes familiarity with probability, mathematical notation, and proof techniques. It is ideally suited for students, researchers, and professionals in operations research, computer science, engineering, and economics.
This comprehensive modern look at regression covers a wide range of topics and relevant contemporary applications, going well beyond the topics covered in most introductory books. With concision and clarity, the authors present linear regression, nonparametric regression, classification, logistic and Poisson regression, high-dimensional regression, quantile regression, conformal prediction and causal inference. There are also brief introductions to neural nets, deep learning, random effects, survival analysis, graphical models and time series. Suitable for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students, the book will also serve as a useful reference for researchers and practitioners in data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence who want to understand modern methods for data analysis.
From social networks to biological systems, networks are a fundamental part of modern life. Network analysis is increasingly popular across the mathematical, physical, life and social sciences, offering insights into a range of phenomena, from developing new drugs based on intracellular interactions, to understanding the influence of social interactions on behaviour patterns. This book provides a toolkit for analyzing random networks, together with theoretical justification of the methods proposed. It combines methods from both probability and statistics, teaching how to build and analyze plausible models for random networks, and how to validate such models, to detect unusual features in the data, and to make predictions. Theoretical results are motivated by applications across a range of fields, and classical data sets are used for illustration throughout the book. This book offers a comprehensive introduction to the field for graduate students and researchers.
An intricate landscape of bias permeates biomedical research. In this groundbreaking exploration the myriad sources of bias shaping research outcomes, from cognitive biases inherent in researchers to the selection of study subjects and data interpretation, are examined in detail. With a focus on randomized controlled trials, pharmacologic studies, genetic research, animal studies, and pandemic analyses, it illuminates how bias distorts the quest for scientific truth. Historical and contemporary examples vividly illustrate the impact of biases across research domains. Offering insights on recognizing and mitigating bias, this comprehensive work equips scientists and research teams with tools to navigate the complex terrain of biased research practices. A must-read for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the critical role biases play in shaping the reliability and reproducibility of biomedical research.
Understanding change over time is a critical component of social science. However, data measured over time – time series – requires their own set of statistical and inferential tools. In this book, Suzanna Linn, Matthew Lebo, and Clayton Webb explain the most commonly used time series models and demonstrate their applications using examples. The guide outlines the steps taken to identify a series, make determinations about exogeneity/endogeneity, and make appropriate modelling decisions and inferences. Detailing challenges and explanations of key techniques not covered in most time series textbooks, the authors show how navigating between data and models, deliberately and transparently, allows researchers to clearly explain their statistical analyses to a broad audience.
CHANCE PERMEATES OUR physical and mental universe. While the role of chance in human lives has had a longer history, starting with the more authoritative influence of the nobility, the more rationally sound theory of probability and statistics has come into practice in diverse areas of science and engineering starting from the early to mid-twentieth century. Practical applications of statistical theories proliferated to such an extent in the previous century that the American government-sponsored RAND corporation published a 600-page book that wholly consisted of a random number table and a table of standard normal deviates. One of the primary objectives of this book was to enable a computer-simulated approximate solution of an exact but unsolvable problem by a procedure known as the Monte Carlo method devised by Fermi, von Neumann, and Ulam in the 1930s–40s.
Statistical methods are the mainstay of conducting modern scientific experiments. One such experimental paradigm is known as a randomized control trial, which is widely used in a variety of fields such as psychology, drug verification, testing the efficacy of vaccines, agricultural sciences, and demography. These statistical experiments require sophisticated sampling techniques in order to nullify experimental biases. With the explosion of information in the modern era, the need to develop advanced and accurate predictive capabilities has grown manifold. This has led to the emergence of modern artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Further, climate change has become a reality of modern civilization. Accurate prediction of weather and climatic patterns relies on sophisticated AI and statistical techniques. It is impossible to think of a modern economy and social life without the influence and role of chance, and hence without the influence of technological interventions based on statistical principles. We must begin this journey by learning the foundational tenets of probability and statistics.
EMPIRICAL TECHNIQUES rely on abstracting meaning from observable phenomena by constructing relationships between different observations. This process of abstraction is facilitated by appropriate measurements (experiments), suitable organization of data generated by measurements, and, finally, rigorous analysis of the data. The latter is a functional exercise that synthesizes information (data) and theory (model) and enables prediction of hitherto unobserved phenomena.1 It is important to underscore that a good theory (model) that explains a certain phenomenon well by appealing to a set of laws and conditions is expected to be a good candidate for predicting the same using reliable data. For example, a good model for the weight of a normal human being is w = m * h, where w and h refer to weight and height of the person, and m can be set to unity if appropriate units are chosen. A rational explanation of such a formula for weight based on anatomical considerations is perhaps very reasonable. From an empirical standpoint, if we collect height and weight data of normal humans, we will notice that a linear model of the form w = m * h represents the data reasonably well and may be used to predict the weight of the person based on the height of the person. This fact ascertains a functional symmetry between explanation and prediction. Therefore, a good predictive model must automatically be able to explain the data (and related events) well.