Risk-sharing rules have been applied to mortality pooling products to ensure these products are actuarially fair and self-sustaining. However, most of the existing studies on the risk-sharing rules of mortality pooling products assume deterministic mortality rates, whereas the literature on mortality models provides empirical evidence suggesting that mortality rates are stochastic and correlated between cohorts. In this paper, we extend existing risk-sharing rules and introduce a new risk-sharing rule, named the joint expectation (JE) rule, to ensure the actuarial fairness of mortality pooling products while accounting for stochastic and correlated mortality rates. Moreover, we perform a systematic study of how the choice of risk-sharing rule, the volatility and correlation of mortality rates, pool size, account balance, and age affect the distribution of mortality credits. Then, we explore a dynamic pool that accommodates heterogeneous members and allows new entrants, and we track the income payments for different members over time. Furthermore, we compare different risk-sharing rules under the scenario of a systematic shock in mortality rates. We find that the account balance affects the distribution of mortality credits for the regression rule, while it has no effect under the proportional, JE, and alive-only rules. We also find that a larger pool size increases the sensitivity to the deviation in total mortality credits for cohorts with mortality rates that are volatile and highly correlated with those of other cohorts, under the stochastic regression rule. Finally, we find that risk-sharing rules significantly influence the effect of longevity shocks on fund balances since, under different risk-sharing rules, fund balances have different sensitivities to deviations in mortality credits.

The population-based structural health monitoring paradigm has recently emerged as a promising approach to enhance data-driven assessment of engineering structures by facilitating transfer learning between structures with some degree of similarity. In this work, we apply this concept to the automated modal identification of structural systems. We introduce a graph neural network (GNN)-based deep learning scheme to identify modal properties, including natural frequencies, damping ratios, and mode shapes of engineering structures based on the power spectral density of spatially sparse vibration measurements. Systematic numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the proposed model, employing two distinct truss populations that possess similar topological characteristics but varying geometric (size and shape) and material (stiffness) properties. The results demonstrate that, once trained, the proposed GNN-based model can identify modal properties of unseen structures within the same structural population with good efficiency and acceptable accuracy, even in the presence of measurement noise and sparse measurement locations. The GNN-based model exhibits advantages over the classic frequency domain decomposition method in terms of identification speed, as well as against an alternate multilayer perceptron architecture in terms of identification accuracy, rendering this a promising tool for PBSHM purposes.

This article investigates global patterns of facilitation and interference among identities—socially recognizable categories that shape individuals’ sense of who they are and carry cultural expectations (e.g., mother, worker). While identity theory suggests that identities interact in structured ways, existing research often examines identities in isolation or conventional roles, limiting the ability to observe broader patterns. This study adopts a relational approach to explore how identities facilitate or interfere with each other. By drawing on sociological identity theory, I formulate hypotheses about these interactions. Using original survey data, I construct identity networks where nodes represent identities and ties indicate the prevalence of facilitation or interference. Blockmodeling techniques are then employed to characterize the global structure of these networks. The findings reveal distinct positions within the network, largely aligning with theoretical expectations.

Industrial mobile robots as service units will be increasingly used in the future in factories with Industry 4.0 production cells in an island-like manner. The differences between the mobile robots available on the market make it necessary to help the optimal selection and use of these robots. In this article, we present a concept that focuses on the mobile robot as a way to investigate the manufacturing system. This approach will help to find the optimal solution when selecting robots. With the parameters that can be included, the robot can be characterized in the manufacturing system environment, making it much easier to express and compute capacity, performance, and efficiency characteristics compared to previous models. In this article, we also present a case study based on the outlined method, which investigates the robot utilization as a function of battery capacity and the number of packages to be transported.

This paper studies a long-standing problem of risk exchange and optimal resource allocation among multiple entities in a continuous-time pure risk-exchange economy. We establish a novel risk exchange mechanism that allows entities to share and transfer risks dynamically over time. To achieve Pareto optimality, we formulate the problem as a stochastic control problem and derive explicit solutions for the optimal investment, consumption, and risk exchange strategies using a martingale method. To highlight practical applications of the solution to the proposed problem, we apply our results to a target benefit pension plan, featuring the potential benefits of risk sharing within this pension system. Numerical examples show the sensitivity of investment portfolios, the adjustment item, and allocation ratios to specific parameters. It is observed that an increase in the aggregate endowment process results in a rise in the adjustment item. Furthermore, the allocation ratios exhibit a positive correlation with the weights of the agents.

We present an explicit subset $A\subseteq \mathbb{N} = \{0,1,\ldots \}$ such that $A + A = \mathbb{N}$ and for all $\varepsilon \gt 0$,

\begin{equation*}\lim _{N\to \infty }\frac {\big |\big \{(n_1,n_2): n_1 + n_2 = N, (n_1,n_2)\in A^2\big \}\big |}{N^{\varepsilon }} = 0.\end{equation*}

This answers a question of Erdős.

Cyber breaches pose a significant threat to both enterprises and society. Analyzing cyber breach data is essential for improving cyber risk management and developing effective cyber insurance policies. However, modeling cyber risk is challenging due to its inherent characteristics, including sparsity, heterogeneity, heavy tails, and dependence. This work introduces a cluster-based dependence model that captures both temporal and cross-group dependencies, providing a more accurate representation of multivariate cyber breach risks. The proposed framework employs a cluster-based kernel approach to model breach severity, effectively handling heterogeneity and extreme values, while a copula-based method is used to capture multivariate dependence. Our findings, validated through both empirical and synthetic studies, demonstrate that the proposed model effectively captures the statistical characteristics of multivariate cyber breach risks and outperforms commonly used models in predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we show that our approach can enhance cyber insurance pricing by generating more profitable insurance contracts.

Climate conditions are known to modulate infectious disease transmission, yet their impact on measles transmission remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the extent to which climate conditions modulate measles transmission, utilizing measles incidence data during 2005–2008 from China. Three climate-forced models were employed: a sinusoidal function, an absolute humidity (AH)-forced model, and an AH and temperature (AH/T)-forced model. These models were integrated into an inference framework consisting of a susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model and an iterated filter (IF2) to estimate epidemiological characteristics and assess climate influences on measles transmission. During the study period, measles epidemics peaked in spring in northern China and were more diverse in the south. Our analyses showed that the AH/T model better captured measles epidemic dynamics in northern China, suggesting a combined impact of humidity and temperature on measles transmission. Furthermore, we preliminarily examined the impact of other factors and found that population susceptibility and incidence rate were both positively correlated with migrant worker influx, suggesting that higher susceptibility among migrant workers may sustain measles transmission. Taken together, our study supports a role of humidity and temperature in modulating measles transmission and identifies additional factors in shaping measles epidemic dynamics in China.

We study the local limit in distribution of Bienaymé–Galton–Watson trees conditioned on having large sub-populations. Assuming a generic and aperiodic condition on the offspring distribution, we prove the existence of a limit given by a Kesten’s tree associated with a certain critical offspring distribution.

Consider a subcritical branching Markov chain. Let $Z_n$ denote the counting measure of particles of generation n. Under some conditions, we give a probabilistic proof for the existence of the Yaglom limit of $(Z_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ by the moment method, based on the spinal decomposition and the many-to-few formula. As a result, we give explicit integral representations of all quasi-stationary distributions of $(Z_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$, whose proofs are direct and probabilistic, and do not rely on Martin boundary theory.

We derive large- and moderate-deviation results in random networks given as planar directed navigations on homogeneous Poisson point processes. In this non-Markovian routing scheme, starting from the origin, at each consecutive step a Poisson point is joined by an edge to its nearest Poisson point to the right within a cone. We establish precise exponential rates of decay for the probability that the vertical displacement of the random path is unexpectedly large. The proofs rest on controlling the dependencies of the individual steps and the randomness in the horizontal displacement as well as renewal-process arguments.

In this paper, we investigate a class of McKean–Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with Lévy-type perturbations. We first establish the existence and uniqueness theorem for the solutions of the McKean–Vlasov SDEs by utilizing an Eulerlike approximation. Then, under suitable conditions, we demonstrate that the solutions of the McKean–Vlasov SDEs can be approximated by the solutions of the associated averaged McKean–Vlasov SDEs in the sense of mean square convergence. In contrast to existing work, a novel feature of this study is the use of a much weaker condition, locally Lipschitz continuity in the state variables, allowing for possibly superlinearly growing drift, while maintaining linearly growing diffusion and jump coefficients. Therefore, our results apply to a broader class of McKean–Vlasov SDEs.

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of parameter estimation for the Ewens–Pitman partition with parameters $0\lt\alpha\lt1$ and $\theta\gt-\alpha$. Specifically, we show that the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) of $\alpha$ is $n^{\alpha/2}$-consistent and converges to a variance mixture of normal distributions, where the variance is governed by the Mittag-Leffler distribution. Moreover, we show that a proper normalization involving a random statistic eliminates the randomness in the variance. Building on this result, we construct an approximate confidence interval for $\alpha$. Our proof relies on a stable martingale central limit theorem, which is of independent interest.

We consider the random series–parallel graph introduced by Hambly and Jordan (2004 Adv. Appl. Probab. 36, 824–838), which is a hierarchical graph with a parameter $p\in [0, \, 1]$. The graph is built recursively: at each step, every edge in the graph is either replaced with probability p by a series of two edges, or with probability $1-p$ by two parallel edges, and the replacements are independent of each other and of everything up to then. At the nth step of the recursive procedure, the distance between the extremal points on the graph is denoted by $D_n (p)$. It is known that $D_n(p)$ possesses a phase transition at $p=p_c \;:\!=\;\frac{1}{2}$; more precisely, $\frac{1}{n}\log {{\mathbb{E}}}[D_n(p)] \to \alpha(p)$ when $n \to \infty$, with $\alpha(p) >0$ for $p>p_c$ and $\alpha(p)=0$ for $p\le p_c$. We study the exponent $\alpha(p)$ in the slightly supercritical regime $p=p_c+\varepsilon$. Our main result says that as $\varepsilon\to 0^+$, $\alpha(p_c+\varepsilon)$ behaves like $\sqrt{\zeta(2) \, \varepsilon}$, where $\zeta(2) \;:\!=\; \frac{\pi^2}{6}$.

In this paper, we study ordering properties of vectors of order statistics and sample ranges arising from bivariate Pareto random variables. Assume that $(X_1,X_2)\sim\mathcal{BP}(\alpha,\lambda_1,\lambda_2)$ and $(Y_1,Y_2)\sim\mathcal{BP}(\alpha,\mu_1,\mu_2).$ We then show that $(\lambda_1,\lambda_2)\stackrel{m}{\succ}(\mu_1,\mu_2)$ implies $(X_{1:2},X_{2:2})\ge_{st}(Y_{1:2},Y_{2:2}).$ Under bivariate Pareto distributions, we prove that the reciprocal majorization order between the two vectors of parameters is equivalent to the hazard rate and usual stochastic orders between sample ranges. We also show that the weak majorization order between two vectors of parameters is equivalent to the likelihood ratio and reversed hazard rate orders between sample ranges.

We consider an optimal stopping problem of a linear diffusion under Poisson constraint where the agent can adjust the arrival rate of new stopping opportunities. We assume that the agent may switch the rate of the Poisson process between two values. Maintaining the lower rate incurs no cost, whereas the higher rate requires effort that is captured by a cost function c. We study a broad class of payoff functions, cost functions and diffusion dynamics, for which we explicitly characterize the solution to the constrained stopping problem. We also characterize the case where switching to the higher rate is always suboptimal. The results are illustrated with two examples.

Asymptotic dimension and Assouad–Nagata dimension are measures of the large-scale shape of a class of graphs. Bonamy, Bousquet, Esperet, Groenland, Liu, Pirot, and Scott [J. Eur. Math. Society] showed that any proper minor-closed class has asymptotic dimension 2, dropping to 1 only if the treewidth is bounded. We improve this result by showing it also holds for the stricter Assouad–Nagata dimension. We also characterise when subdivision-closed classes of graphs have bounded Assouad–Nagata dimension.