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52708 results in Statistics and Probability

Page 345 of 2636

  • Microbiological quality of raw drinking milk and unpasteurised dairy products: results from England 2013–2019

  • Part of
  • J. McLauchlin, H. Aird, A. Elliott, E. Forester, F. Jørgensen, C. Willis
  • Journal:
    Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 148 / 2020
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 May 2020, e135
    • Article
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  • The aim of this study was to review microbiology results from testing >2500 raw drinking milk and dairy products made with unpasteurised milk examined in England between 2013 and 2019. Samples were collected as part of incidents of contamination, investigation of infections or as part of routine monitoring and were tested using standard methods for a range of both pathogens and hygiene indicators. Results from testing samples of raw cow's milk or cheese made from unpasteurised milk for routine monitoring purposes were overall of better microbiological quality than those collected during incident or investigations of infections. Results from routine monitoring were satisfactory for 62% of milks, 82% of cream, 100% of ice-cream, 51% of butter, 63% of kefir and 79% of cheeses, with 5% of all samples being considered potentially hazardous. Analysis of data from cheese demonstrated a significant association between increasing levels of indicator Escherichia coli with elevated levels of coagulase positive staphylococci and decreased probability of isolation of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli. These data highlight the public health risk associated with these products and provide further justification for controls applied to raw drinking milk and dairy products made with unpasteurised milk.

  • Healthy life expectancy in China: Modelling and implications for public and private insurance

  • Han Li, Katja Hanewald, Shang Wu
  • Journal:
    Annals of Actuarial Science / Volume 15 / Issue 1 / March 2021
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 May 2020, pp. 40-56

  • Already home to 23% of the global elderly population, China will experience further demographic change in the coming decades. To address the consequences of population ageing, the Chinese government is implementing major social insurance reforms and promotes the development of private insurance markets. We aim to inform these initiatives by developing a new method to project healthy life expectancy (HLE) in different regions. HLE is an important population health measure which is increasingly used in the actuarial literature. Our new approach relies on publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for life expectancy and HLE for 139 countries. We use the model to estimate HLE at birth in 2015 for 31 province-level regions in China for both males and females. We discuss the implications of our results for planned increases in the retirement age in China and for long-term care insurance pricing.

Page 345 of 2636