The aim of this study was to determine the most cost-effective strategy for the prevention and control of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) in intensive care units (ICUs) in areas with limited health resources. The study was conducted in 12 ICUs of four hospitals. The total cost for the prevention of MDROs and the secondary attack rate (SAR) of MDROs for each strategy were collected retrospectively from 2046 subjects from January to December 2017. The average cost-effectiveness ratio (CER), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curve were calculated. Hand hygiene (HH) had the lowest total cost (2149.6 RMB) and SAR of MDROs (8.8%) while single-room isolation showed the highest cost (33 700.2 RMB) and contact isolation had the highest SAR of MDROs (31.8%). The average cost per unit infection prevention was 24 427.8 RMB, with the HH strategy followed by the environment disinfection strategy (CER = 21 314.67). HH had the highest iterative cost effect under willingness to pay less than 2000 RMB. Due to the low cost for repeatability and obvious effectiveness, we conclude that HH is the optimal strategy for MDROs infections in ICUs in developing countries. The cost-effectiveness of the four prevention strategies provides some reference for developing countries but multiple strategies remain to be examined.

The first case of 2019-nCoV pneumonia infection occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, South China Seafood Market in December 2019. As a group with a high probability of infection, health workers are faced with a certain degree of psychological challenges in the process of facing the epidemic. This study attempts to evaluate the impact of 2019-nCoV outbreak on the psychological state of Chinese health workers and to explore the influencing factors. During the period from 31 January 2020 to 4 February 2020, the ‘Questionnaire Star’ electronic questionnaire system was used to collect data. The 2019-nCoV impact questionnaire and The Impact of Event Scale (IES) were used to check the psychological status of health workers in China. A total of 442 valid data were collected in this study. Seventy-four (16.7%) male and 368 (83.3%) female individuals participated in this study. The average score of high arousal dimension was 5.15 (s.d. = 4.71), and the median score was 4.0 (IQR 2.0, 7.0). The average score of IES was 15.26 (s.d. = 11.23), and the median score was 13.5 (IQR 7.0, 21.0). Multiple regression analysis showed that there were critical statistical differences in high arousal scores among different gender groups (male 3.0 vs. female 5.0, P = 0.075). Whether being quarantined had significant statistical differences of IES scores (being quarantined 16.0 vs. not being quarantined 13.0, P = 0.021). The overall impact of the 2019-nCoV outbreak on health workers is at a mild level. Chinese health workers have good psychological coping ability in the face of public health emergencies.

Since December 2019, China has experienced a widespread outbreak of COVID-19. However, at the early stage of outbreak, investigations revealed a variety of patterns resulting in the transmission of COVID-19. Thus, it is essential to understand the transmission types and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Moreover, the information regarding the characteristics of transmission helps in coordinating the current screening programme, and controlling and containing measures, and also, helps in deciding the appropriate quarantine duration. Thus, this investigation reports an outbreak of COVID-19 in a family residing in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China during the month of January−February 2020.

The present paper is concerned with reliability economics, considering a certain performance-per-cost criterion for coherent and mixed systems, as introduced in [Dugas, M.R. & Samaniego, F.J. (2007). On optimal system designs in reliability-economics frameworks. Naval Research Logistics 54, 568–582]. We first present a new comparison result for performance-per-cost of systems with independent and identically distributed component lifetimes under certain stochastic orderings. We then consider optimization of the performance-per-cost criterion, first reconsidering and refining results from the above cited paper, and then considering mixtures of given subsets of coherent systems.

This paper proposes a new strategy for the identification of the marginal effects of an endogenous multivalued variable (which can be continuous, or a vector) in a model with an Instrumental Variable (IV) of lower dimension, which may even be a single binary variable, and multiple controls. Despite the failure of the classical order condition, we show that identification may be achieved by exploiting heterogeneity of the “first stage” in the controls through a new rank condition that we term covariance completeness. The identification strategy justifies the use of interactions between instruments and controls as additional exogenous variables and can be straightforwardly implemented by parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric two-stage least squares estimators, following the same generic algorithm. Monte Carlo simulations show that the estimators have excellent performance in moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our methods to the problem of estimating the effect of air quality on house prices, based on Chay and Greenstone (2005, Journal of Political Economy 113, 376–424). All methods are implemented in a companion Stata software package.

The reliability study of k-out-of-n systems is of interest both from theoretical and practical points of view. Applications of such models can be seen in many real-world phenomena, including telecommunication, transmission, transportation, manufacturing, and services. A probabilistic study of a real-world k-out-of-n system often helps to develop an optimal strategy for maintaining high system-level reliability. There are many investigations devoted to the reliability-centric analysis of such systems. We consider a mathematical model of a repairable k-out-of-n system that works until k of its n components have failed. During the system's life cycle, its components are repaired with the help of a single repair facility. It is supposed that the components' lifetimes have an exponential distribution and their repair times have a general distribution. The proposed model is intended to be applied to the description of operation of unmanned rotorcraft high-altitude platforms and to be validated with the help of an experimental prototype. For the considered system, we propose an algorithm for calculation of the reliability function, and for special cases, k = 2 and k = 3, its closed-form representation is given. A numerical investigation is performed for special cases. The obtained results are a first step toward the sensitivity analysis of reliability characteristics of k-out-of-n systems to the shape of the repair time distributions of their components.

In late December 2019, patients of atypical pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Subsequently, a novel coronavirus was identified as the causative pathogen which was named SARS-CoV-2. As of 12 February 2020, more than 44 000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been confirmed in China and continue to expand. Provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China have launched first-level response to major public health emergencies one after another from 23 January 2020, which means restricting movement of people among provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and to depict the effect of restricting population movement. In this study, Excel 2010 was used to demonstrate the temporal distribution at the day level and SPSS 23.0 was used to analyse the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We found that since 23 January 2020, Wuhan migration scale index has dropped significantly and since 26 January 2020, Hubei province migration scale index has dropped significantly. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and showed a downward trend from 6 February 2020. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and maintained at a high level from 24 January 2020 to 4 February 2020, then showed a downward trend. Wuhan migration scale index from 9 January to 22 January, 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan from 22 January to 4 February. Hubei province migration scale index from 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province from 22 January to 4 February. Our findings suggested that people who left Wuhan from 9 January to 22 January, and those who left Hubei province from 10 January to 24 January, led to the outbreak in the rest of China. The ‘Wuhan lockdown’ and the launching of the first-level response to this major public health emergency may have had a good effect on controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. Although new COVID-19 cases continued to be confirmed in China outside Wuhan and Hubei provinces, in our opinion, these are second-generation cases.

We study random unlabelled k-trees by combining the colouring approach by Gainer-Dewar and Gessel (2014) with the cycle-pointing method by Bodirsky, Fusy, Kang and Vigerske (2011). Our main applications are Gromov–Hausdorff–Prokhorov and Benjamini–Schramm limits that describe their asymptotic geometric shape on a global and local scale as the number of (k + 1)-cliques tends to infinity.

Surveillance of new cases of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Italy was started in 2007 by the Ministry of Health (MoH). In 2012, pneumococcal childhood vaccination was introduced at the national level and, in 2017, for citizens aged 65 years and over. We describe here IPD epidemiology in Italy over the past 10 years investigating the impact of the vaccine programme on disease burden. Reports of IPD cases, data on serotype and vaccination coverage (VC) data were obtained from MoH annual reports, for the period 2007–2017. IPD notification rate and proportion by year, region, age and serotype were calculated. In 2007, 525 cases were reported (rate 0.88/100 000), rising to 1703 cases (rate 2.82/100 000) in 2017. The distribution of IPD cases by age group over time registered the largest share among individuals aged 65 years and over. A decreasing trend in notification rate was observed among those aged 0–4 years. During the same period, the 24-month VC increased, ranging from 80.9% to 96.7% in 2017. Molecular data indicated re-emergence of PPSV23-specific serotypes and non-vaccine serotypes. We observed an increase in IPD notifications during 2007–2017, likely due to an improved surveillance system, at least in some regions, with the relative quota of IPD notifications decreasing among vaccinated children cohorts. Further strengthening of IPD surveillance system, including molecular and vaccine coverage data, would be needed to assess and inform pneumococcal vaccination strategies in Italy.

Back-projection is an epidemiological analysis method that was developed to estimate HIV incidence using surveillance data on AIDS diagnoses. It was used extensively during the 1990s for this purpose as well as in other epidemiological contexts. Surveillance data on COVID-19 diagnoses can be analysed by the method of back-projection using information about the probability distribution of the time between infection and diagnosis, which is primarily determined by the incubation period. This paper demonstrates the value of such analyses using daily diagnoses from Australia. It is shown how back-projection can be used to assess the pattern of COVID-19 infection incidence over time and to assess the impact of control measures by investigating their temporal association with changes in incidence patterns. For Australia, these analyses reveal that peak infection incidence coincided with the introduction of border closures and social distancing restrictions, while the introduction of subsequent social distancing measures coincided with a continuing decline in incidence to very low levels. These associations were not directly discernible from the daily diagnosis counts, which continued to increase after the first stage of control measures. It is estimated that a one week delay in peak incidence would have led to a fivefold increase in total infections. Furthermore, at the height of the outbreak, half to three-quarters of all infections remained undiagnosed. Automated data analytics of routinely collected surveillance data are a valuable monitoring tool for the COVID-19 pandemic and may be useful for calibrating transmission dynamics models.

Although patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are known to be at high risk for developing bloodstream infections (BSI), the risk associated with lesser degrees of renal dysfunction is not well defined. We sought to determine the risk for acquiring and dying from community-onset BSIs among patients with renal dysfunction. A retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted among adult residents without ESRD in the western interior of British Columbia. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were determined for cases and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using prevalence estimates. Overall, 1553 episodes of community-onset BSI were included of which 39%, 32%, 17%, 9%, 2% and 1% had preceding eGFRs of ≥90, 60–89, 45–59, 30–44, 15–29 and <15 ml/min/m2, respectively. As compared to those with eGFR ≥60 ml/min/m2, patients with eGFR 30–59 ml/min/m2 (IRR 4.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9–4.9) and eGFR <30 ml/min/m2 (IRR 7.0; 95% CI 5.0–9.5) were at significantly increased risk for the development of community-onset BSI. An eGFR <30 ml/min/m2 was an independent risk factor for death (odds ratio 2.3; 95% CI 1.01–5.15). Patients with renal dysfunction are at increased risk for developing and dying from community-onset BSI that is related to the degree of dysfunction.

One of the commonly used analytical approaches for measuring oxygen isotope ratios δ18O of solids (organic and inorganic) is to pyrolyze the samples to gaseous phases and then send the gas into an isotope ratio mass spectrometer system. Solid samples for δ18O measurements are usually stored in silver cups because of its low reactivity towards oxygen and other oxidants. Samples in silver cups can be dropped directly into the carbon column of the pyrolysis furnace. However, the silver cups can tarnish and then be oxidized over a prolonged storage period. We find that while a small amount of silver oxides does not affect measurements with appreciable sample sizes, it can skew isotope results of small samples. We thus recommend careful storage of samples in silver cups to minimize oxidation, such as under an air-isolated condition, and avoiding prolonged storage for accurate δ18O measurements.

This study aimed to evaluate risk factors associated with shedding of pathogenic Leptospira species in urine at animal and herd levels. In total, 200 dairy farms were randomly selected from the DairyNZ database. Urine samples were taken from 20 lactating, clinically normal cows in each herd between January and April 2016 and tested by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using gyrB as the target gene. Overall, 26.5% of 200 farms had at least one PCR positive cow and 2.4% of 4000 cows were shedding Leptospira in the urine. Using a questionnaire, information about risk factors at cow and farm level was collected via face-to-face interviews with farm owners and managers. Animals on all but one farm had been vaccinated against Hardjo and Pomona and cows on 54 of 200 (27%) farms had also been vaccinated against Copenhageni in at least one age group (calves, heifers and cows). Associations found to be statistically significant in univariate analysis (at P < 0.2) were assessed by multivariable logistic regression. Factors associated with shedding included cattle age (Odds ratio (OR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.71–0.95), keeping sheep (OR 5.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46–21.25) or dogs (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.07–1.97) and managing milking cows in a single as opposed to multiple groups (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20–0.99). We conclude that younger cattle were more likely to be shedding Leptospira than older cattle and that the presence of sheep and dogs was associated with an increased risk of shedding in cows. Larger herds were at higher risk of having Leptospira shedders. However, none of the environmental risk factors that were assessed (e.g. access to standing water, drinking-water source), or wildlife abundance on-farm, or pasture were associated with shedding, possibly due to low statistical power, given the low overall shedding rate.

Porphyromonas gingivalis has been linked to the development and progression of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and is considered to be a high-risk factor for ESCC. Currently, the commonly used methods for P. gingivalis detection are culture or DNA extraction-based, which are either time and labour intensive especially for high-throughput applications. We aimed to establish and evaluate a rapid and sensitive direct quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) protocol for the detection of P. gingivalis without DNA extraction which is suitable for large-scale epidemiological studies. Paired gingival swab samples from 192 subjects undergoing general medical examinations were analysed using two direct and one extraction-based qPCR assays for P. gingivalis. Tris-EDTA buffer-based direct qPCR (TE-direct qPCR), lysis-based direct qPCR (lysis-direct qPCR) and DNA extraction-based qPCR (kit-qPCR) were used, respectively, in 192, 132 and 60 of these samples for quantification of P. gingivalis. The sensitivity and specificity of TE-direct qPCR was 95.24% and 100% compared with lysis-direct qPCR, which was 100% and 97.30% when compared with kit-qPCR; TE-direct qPCR had an almost perfect agreement with lysis-direct qPCR (κ = 0.954) and kit-qPCR (κ = 0.965). Moreover, the assay time used for TE-direct qPCR was 1.5 h. In conclusion, the TE-direct qPCR assay is a simple and efficient method for the quantification of oral P. gingivalis and showed high sensitivity and specificity compared with routine qPCR.

We report two cases of respiratory toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae infection in fully vaccinated UK born adults following travel to Tunisia in October 2019. Both patients were successfully treated with antibiotics and neither received diphtheria antitoxin. Contact tracing was performed following a risk assessment but no additional cases were identified. This report highlights the importance of maintaining a high index of suspicion for re-emerging infections in patients with a history of travel to high-risk areas outside Europe.

In this paper, several properties of a class of trees presenting preferential attachment phenomenon—plane-oriented recursive trees (PORTs) are uncovered. Specifically, we investigate the degree profile of a PORT by determining the exact probability mass function of the degree of a node with a fixed label. We compute the expectation and the variance of degree variable via a Pólya urn approach. In addition, we study a topological index, Zagreb index, of this class of trees. We calculate the exact first two moments of the Zagreb index (of PORTs) by using recurrence methods. Lastly, we determine the limiting degree distribution in PORTs that grow in continuous time, where the embedding is done in a Poissonization framework. We show that it is exponential after proper scaling.

We prove an essentially sharp $\tilde \Omega (n/k)$ lower bound on the k-round distributional complexity of the k-step pointer chasing problem under the uniform distribution, when Bob speaks first. This is an improvement over Nisan and Wigderson’s $\tilde \Omega (n/{k^2})$ lower bound, and essentially matches the randomized lower bound proved by Klauck. The proof is information-theoretic, and a key part of it is using asymmetric triangular discrimination instead of total variation distance; this idea may be useful elsewhere.

We give an efficient algorithm that, given a graph G and a partition V1,…,Vm of its vertex set, finds either an independent transversal (an independent set {v1,…,vm} in G such that ${v_i} \in {V_i}$ for each i), or a subset ${\cal B}$ of vertex classes such that the subgraph of G induced by $\bigcup\nolimits_{\cal B}$ has a small dominating set. A non-algorithmic proof of this result has been known for a number of years and has been used to solve many other problems. Thus we are able to give algorithmic versions of many of these applications, a few of which we describe explicitly here.