World Bank: Total Natural Resources Rents (% of GDP) 2014, World Development Indicators (2015).
Keeping warming within the 2 °C threshold is generally accepted as preventing atmospheric carbon from rising from its current level of 400 parts per million to extend beyond 450 parts per million.
Riahi, K., Kriegler, E., Johnson, N., Bertram, C., Den Elzen, M., Eom, J., Schaeffer, M., Edmonds, J., Isaac, M., and Krey, V.: Locked into Copenhagen pledges—implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change
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Schleussner, C-F., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Lissner, T., Licker, R., Fischer, E.M., Knutti, R., Levermann, A., Frieler, K., and Hare, W.: Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nat. Clim. Change
6, 827–835 (2016).
For purposes of simplicity, hard coal and lignite are lumped together, as are crude oil and natural gas liquids.
Most “fracking bans” are not driven primarily by a wish to reduce GHG emissions. Neither have the bans shut-in ongoing production. They have thus far only restricted future opportunities. See: Kenneth B. Medlock III: The Land of Opportunity? Policy, Constraints, and Energy Security in North America. Baker Institute research paper (2014). Available at: http://bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/94020ec4/CES-Pub-EnergySecurity-060214.pdf (accessed January 31, 2017).
Lemphers, N.: The Climate Implications of the Proposed Keystone XL Oilsands Pipeline (Pembina Institute, 2013).
BP p.l.c.: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 (BP, London, 2016).
International Energy Agency: Re-Powering Markets: Market design and regulation during the transition to low-carbon power systems (International Energy Agency, 2016), p. 31.
Emissions stem from transport, compression, liquefaction and leaking methane, itself a powerful greenhouse gas. In Handbook of Clean Energy Systems, Volume 6, edited by Jinyue Yan (Wiley, Chichester, 2015); pp. 3517–3544.
Note that coal’s share is expected to rebound slightly in 2017. See: Short-Term Energy Outlook (US EIA, 2016); p. 2.
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US Securities and Exchange Commission: Commission Guidance Regarding Disclosure Related to Climate Change (Interpretive Release, 2010); 17 CFR parts 211, 231, and 241. Available at: https://www.sec.gov/rules/interp/2010/33-9106.pdf (accessed January 31, 2017).
See, for example, BankTrack’s “Top Twenty Coal Banks” Ranking. Available at: http://coalbanks.org/#score (accessed January 31, 2017).
Pfeiffer, A., Millar, R., Hepburn, C., and Beinhocker, E.: The “2 °C capital stock” for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy. Appl. Energy
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Mathieu, C.: Carbon Risk and the Fossil Fuel Industry. Research Paper, IFRI Center for Energy (2015); pp. 7–8.
A large volume of literature exists on this subject. See for example: E.A. Posner and C.R. Sunstein: Climate change justice. Geo LJ
96, 1565 (2007).
D.A. Farber: Basic compensation for victims of climate change. Univ. Pa. Law Rev.
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K. Healy and J.M. Tapick: Climate Change: It’s not just a policy issue for corporate Counsel—It’s a legal problem’ (2004). Columbia J. Environ. Law
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Hancock, E.E.: Red dawn, blue thunder, purple rain: Corporate risk of liability for global climate change and the SEC disclosure dilemma. Geo Intl Envtl Rev
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Grossman, D.A.: Warming up to a not-so-radical idea: tort-based climate change litigation. Colum. J. Envtl. L.
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Allen, M.: Liability for climate change. Nature
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This is a simplification of the Saudi strategy. Saudi officials take many aspects of oil markets into account. Climate factors may be outweighed by other interests, including price. In fact, the kingdom agreed to cut nearly 500,000 barrels of oil production a day in December 2016, amid a widespread agreement among producers. Further, even “unburnable” oil retains markets in petrochemicals, lubricants, etc.
Estimate from M. O’Hanlon: Energy Security: Economics, Politics, Strategies, and Implications, edited by Carlos Pascual and Jonathan Elkind (Brookings, Washington, 2010); pp. 59–72.
Verbruggen, A. and Van de Graaf, T.: The geopolitics of oil in a carbon-constrained world. IAEE Energy Forum
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Fouquet, R.: The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service. Energy Policy
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Patel, M., Neelis, M., Gielen, D., Olivier, J., Simmons, T., and Theunis, J.: Carbon dioxide emissions from non-energy use of fossil fuels: Summary of key issues and conclusions from the country analyses. Resour. Conserv. Recycl.
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Note that Exxon’s petrochemical ventures include joint ventures with Saudi Aramco, the most efficient and technologically proficient of the world’s national oil companies. See: P.R. Hartley and K.B. Medlock, III: Changes in the operational efficiency of national oil companies. Energy J.
34(2), 27 (2013).