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Numerical solution of a PDE arising from prediction with expert advice

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 April 2025

Jeff Calder*
Affiliation:
School of Mathematics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
Nadejda Drenska
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
Drisana Mosaphir
Affiliation:
School of Mathematics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
*
Corresponding author: Jeff Calder; Email: jwcalder@umn.edu
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Abstract

This work investigates the online machine learning problem of prediction with expert advice in an adversarial setting through numerical analysis of, and experiments with, a related partial differential equation. The problem is a repeated two-person game involving decision-making at each step informed by $n$ experts in an adversarial environment. The continuum limit of this game over a large number of steps is a degenerate elliptic equation whose solution encodes the optimal strategies for both players. We develop numerical methods for approximating the solution of this equation in relatively high dimensions ($n\leq 10$) by exploiting symmetries in the equation and the solution to drastically reduce the size of the computational domain. Based on our numerical results we make a number of conjectures about the optimality of various adversarial strategies, in particular about the non-optimality of the COMB strategy.

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Papers
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Plots of the numerical solution$w$versus the true solutions for$n=2$and$n=3$experts.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Convergence rates and optimal strategies for$n=2,3,4$experts, computed from the numerical solutions. The dashed red line indicates the COMB strategy, which is numerically observed to be optimal for$n=2,3,4$experts, as the theory predicts.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Numerical computation of strategy optimality for the$n=5,6$expert problems.

Figure 3

Table 1. Number of grid points in the sector computational domain${\mathbb {D}}^+_d\cap [0,5]^d$compared to the full grid$\mathbb {Z}_h^d\cap [\!-5,5]^d$. We use fewer grid points as the dimension increases since evaluating the PDE involves computing derivatives in$2^d$directions, so the computational time and memory storage increase exponentially with$d$

Figure 4

Figure 4. Numerical computation of strategy optimality for the$n=7,8$expert problems.

Figure 5

Figure 5. Numerical computation of strategy optimality for the$n=9,10$expert problems.