Predictability of Weather and Climate

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511617652

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

' … well-balanced volume … The concatenation of 27 authors gives some heterogeneity from which the interested reader can choose … High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it a valuable resource on our shelves for many years.'

Source: Meteorologische Zeitschrift

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv
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Contents
pp v-vii
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List of contributors
pp viii-xii
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Preface
pp xiii-xvi
- By Tim Palmer, Head of the Probability Forecasting and Diagnostics Division, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Renate Hagedorn, Education officer, ECMWF research department
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Chapter 1 - Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice
pp 1-29
- By T. N. Palmer, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
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Chapter 2 - Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective
pp 30-39
- By Brian Hoskins, University of Reading
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Chapter 3 - Predictability – a problem partly solved
pp 40-58
- By Edward N. Lorenz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
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Chapter 4 - The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability
pp 59-98
- By Martin Ehrendorfer, Institut für Meteorologie und Geophysik, Universität Innsbruck
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Chapter 5 - Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction
pp 99-123
- By Petros J. Ioannou, Department of Physics, National and Capodistrian University of Athens, Brian F. Farrell, Harvard University, Cambridge
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Chapter 6 - Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation
pp 124-156
- By Thomas M. Hamill, Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder
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Chapter 7 - Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution?
pp 157-180
- By Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, Brian Hunt, University of Maryland, College Park, Edward Ott, University of Maryland, College Park, Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park
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Chapter 8 - Approximating optimal state estimation
pp 181-216
- By Brian F. Farrell, Harvard University, Cambridge, Petros J. Ioannou, Department of Physics, National and Capodistrian University of Athens
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Chapter 9 - Predictability past, predictability present
pp 217-250
- By Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Pembroke College, Oxford
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Chapter 10 - Predictability of coupled processes
pp 251-274
- By Axel Timmermann, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai'i, Honolulu, Fei-Fei Jin, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee
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Chapter 11 - Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability
pp 275-305
- By Duane E. Waliser, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
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Chapter 12 - Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
pp 306-341
- By J. Shukla, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland, J. L. Kinter III, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland
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Chapter 13 - Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
pp 342-364
- By M. Latif, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, H. Pohlmann, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, W. Park, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg
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Chapter 14 - On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales
pp 365-390
- By Franco Molteni, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Fred Kucharski, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Susanna Corti, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate ISAC-CNR, Bologna
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Chapter 15 - Model error in weather and climate forecasting
pp 391-427
- By Myles Allen, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, David Frame, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Jamie Kettleborough, Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, David Stainforth, Department of Physics, University of Oxford
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Chapter 16 - Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40
pp 428-458
- By Adrian J. Simmons, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
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Chapter 17 - The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
pp 459-488
- By Roberto Buizza, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
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Chapter 18 - Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
pp 489-513
- By Stefano Tibaldi, ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Chiara Marsigli, ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Fabrizio Nerozzi, ARPA-SIM, Bologna
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Chapter 19 - Operational seasonal prediction
pp 514-531
- By David L. T. Anderson, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading; Representing the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting Section, Magdalena Balmaseda, Laura Ferranti, Tim Stockdale, Alberto; Troccoli, Kristian Mogensen, Arthur Vidard, Frederic Vitart
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Chapter 20 - Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach
pp 532-560
- By T. N. Krishnamurti, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Won-Tae Yun, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Arun Chakraborty, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Lydia Stefanova, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee
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Chapter 21 - Predictability and targeted observations
pp 561-583
- By Alan J. Thorpe, University of Reading, Guðrún Nína Petersen, University of Reading
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Chapter 22 - The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
pp 584-595
- By Zoltan Toth, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Washington, DC, Olivier Talagrand, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, Yuejian Zhu, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Washington, DC
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Chapter 23 - Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective
pp 596-613
- By Ken Mylne, Met Office, Exeter
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Chapter 24 - Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?
pp 614-627
- By François Lalaurette, Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Toulouse, Gerald van der Grijn, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
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Chapter 25 - Predictability and economic value
pp 628-644
- By David S. Richardson, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
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Chapter 26 - A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world
pp 645-673
- By Peter J. Webster, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, T. Hopson, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, C. Hoyos, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, A. Subbiah, Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, Bangkok, H.-R. Chang, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, R. Grossman, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder
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