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Chapter 11 - Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 December 2009

By
Duane E. Waliser
Edited by
Tim Palmer  and
Renate Hagedorn
Duane E. Waliser
Affiliation:
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
Tim Palmer
Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Renate Hagedorn
Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Summary

Introduction

Not long after the development of numerical weather forecasting in the 1950s, predictability studies emerged with the desire to determine the theoretical limits associated with deterministic weather forecasting (e.g. Thompson, 1957; Lorenz, 1965, 1982; this volume; Palmer, this volume). Estimating these limits helped to better quantify the capabilities and skill level of operational weather forecast models and to determine how far and fast the community should press the embryonic field of numerical weather forecasting. Numerical predictability studies expanded to include the ocean and the climate scale with the advent of seasonal-to-interannual forecasting based on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g. Cane et al., 1986; Graham and Barnett, 1995; Kirtman et al., 1997; Barnston et al., 1999; Anderson, this volume; Hagedorn et al., this volume; Shukla and Kinter, this volume). In this case, it was of interest to understand the theoretical limits for predicting tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and then in turn their implications for predicting monthly or seasonal anomalies of midlatitude circulation, temperature and rainfall.

Very recently, predictability at the intraseasonal timescale (i.e. lead times of about 2 weeks to 2 months) has garnered great interest (Schubert et al., 2002; Waliser et al., 2003a; ECMWF, 2004). This evolution of research and operations in regard to specific prediction regimes (i.e. weather, seasonal and then intraseasonal) has mimicked quite remarkably that anticipated by John von Neumann (1955; relevant excerpt can be found in Waliser, 2005).

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Predictability of Weather and Climate , pp. 275 - 305
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

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